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Thursday, December 5

5th Dec - ECB sits, payrolls next



Previously on MoreLiver’s:
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EUROPE
Europe repeating all the errors of Japan as deflation draws closer – The Telegraph
The whole eurozone must have a higher inflation rate to lift the South far enough above the deflation line to gain breathing room

What is Wrong with the EU? – F. Saraceno
Eurostat just released the 2012 figures for poverty and social exclusion in the EU. The numbers are terrifying.

Americanized Labor Policy Is Spreading in Europe – NYT
This is what is known in Europe as “internal devaluation.”

Euro zone likely to backstop banks with promises rather than cash – Reuters
A Reuters survey of euro zone backstops showed very few governments have any money earmarked for such a purpose. If called upon, they would have to prop up their lenders with bonds or guarantees rather than cash.

The German Scapegoat – Project Syndicate
Recent criticism of Germany's external surplus overlooks the fact that the country represents just the tip of a Teutonic iceberg: All northern European countries with a Germanic language are running a current-account surplus. Indeed, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Sweden, and Norway are all running larger surpluses relative to GDP.

Germany’s economy isn’t as strong as Europe believes – Marketwatch
Merkel will most likely preside over Germany in a “grand coalition” with opposition parties. But this time around she may have been handed a poisoned political chalice. Germany faces significant economic challenges and risks, and its economic power and financial strength may be overstated.

The ECB’s big moment – Bruegel
…and the gradually apparent risks and opportunities of bank supervision

  BANK OF ENGLAND
The 8 things you need to know about the Autumn Statement – Money Supply / FT

BOE Keeps Rate at Record Low as Osborne Raises Forecasts – BB

UNITED STATES
The Volcker Rule: From Idea to Implementation (Almost) – WSJ
U.S. Regulators are expected to vote next week on a toughened version of the Volcker rule, a long-awaited provision of the Dodd-Frank financial law of 2010. The rule, named after former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, is designed to make banks less risky by limiting its trading. Here is a look at the rule’s nearly five-year evolution from idea to reality.

Ahead of the Employment Report – Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
With the fiscal shutdown in the rear-view mirror, Fed officials are turning their attention back to policy normalization.   They want to taper, but remain wary of pulling the trigger on tapering too quickly…one can make a reasonably solid argument for tapering if the November employment report adds to the recent string of 200k+ payroll gains.  My expectation is that even a positive report will not trigger a taper with month; instead, the statement is most likely to evolve to reflect a new emphasis on forward guidance.  But I can't rule out a tapering surprise.

Four Things to Know Before the Jobs Report – WSJ
The job market is picking up, but let’s not get carried away * It’s not just about jobs — it’s about how much those jobs pay * It’s the economy, stupid. * Fed, Fed, Fed.

  MACRO NUMBERS
GDP Soars To 3.6% On Inventories; Consumption Contribution Lowest Since 2009 – ZH
Economists React: ‘No Momentum’ in GDP Report – WSJ
Markets Drop on Stronger GDP Print; Break Out Your Taper Meters – WSJ
GDP Q3 Second Estimate Rises to 3.6% - dshort
Inventory Hoarding Accounts For Nearly 60% Of GDP Increase In Past Year – ZH
The economy grew 3.6 percent last quarter. Put away the Champagne – WaPo
US third quarter GDP: ‘all hat and no cattle’ – Reuters
Upbeat U.S. data points to growth momentum – Reuters
Economy in U.S. Grows at 3.6% Rate on Bigger Inventories – BB
Initial Claims Tumble To 298K As BLS Warns Of "Holiday Volatility" – ZH

Real GDP Per Capita: Another Perspective on the Economy – dshort
Comments on Q3 GDP and Investment – Calculated Risk

ASIA
Leading Japan Economist Says Abe On Right Track, But BOJ a Risk – WSJ

OTHER
EMEA Weekly – Danske Bank

FINNISH
Irlannin kauppataseen sisällä elää kelttiläinen yllätys – Tyhmyri
Keksittyä palveluvientiä eli Irlanti vielä kaukana toipumisesta

Elvytys, setelirahoitus, talouskuri ja leikkausohjelmat - umpikujan monet nimet – Henri Myllyniemi / US

Tulossa yritysten julkinen verovelkarekisteri – Verkkouutiset

Kymmenen syytä, miksi AY-liikkeisiin ei kannata liittyä! – Matias Härkönen / US

Huomasitko, että Suomi muuttui? "Palkkaratkaisusta neuvotellaan ensisijaisesti yritystasolla" – TE

Katainen: Suomi ei lähde rikkomaan EU:n talouskuria – Verkkouutiset