Google Analytics

Sunday, December 22

22nd Dec - Weekender: Markets & Economics

I am experimenting with covering blog debates.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter

The Illustrated Guide To 4 Years Of Currency WarsZH

Global Central Bank Focus: Coal in the Fed’s Stock-ingPIMCO
Forward guidance has become an increasingly common practice among global central banks. Communicating a possible change in the policy rate could have a large effect on long-term interest rates. * Capital has moved literally around the globe as a result of central bank activism in developed countries. * Looking ahead, we expect 2014 to be a year of increased differentiation across emerging markets in terms of economic fundamentals, policy reactions and market outcomes.

Investors should abandon long-term commodity betsalphaville / FT
The assumption is that commodities diversify portfolios, hedge against inflation, and, in the case of gold, offer a safe store of value. But our research suggests these justifications for long-term bets on commodities are illusory.

Asset Class Performance For The CycleShort Side of Long
Since majority of assets bottom between late 2008 and early 2009, the chart above also shows how they have performed for the overall investment cycle.

The most important charts of the yearBI

Secret Currency Traders’ Club Devised Biggest Market’s RatesBB

The global economy in 2014 – Heading towards trend growthDB Research

These Are The Main Financial Risks Of 2014 According To The US TreasuryZH

Saxo Bank's 10 Outrageous Predictions For 2014ZH

10 Lessons To Learn From PokerSTA

Man Who Said No to Soros Builds BlueCrest Into EmpireBB

How do Hedge Fund "Stars" Create Value? Evidence from Their Daily TradesRussel Jame
Trading profits of the top 10% of hedge funds cannot be explained by luck. Similarly, superior performance persists. Outperforming hedge funds tend to be short-term contrarians with small price impacts…liquidity provision is an important channel through which outperforming hedge funds persistently create value

The Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market ReturnsPhilosophical Economics

Fixing the Shiller CAPEPhilosophical Economies
Accounting, Dividends, and the Permanently High Plateau -

The Shiller CAPE ratio: When a Good Indicator Goes BadMorningstar

Sovereign Debt Restructuring: Red Herrings Swimming in a Sea of ConfusionPIIE
Debates over the place of sovereign debt restructuring in a financial crisis are getting more muddled and acrimonious, in no small part because no one wants to face the underlying governance challenge: political pressure to lend public money to contain the crisis, even if it means paying private creditors in full and adding to a sky-high pile of sovereign debt.

Investors' new challenge: Deciphering central bank 'guidance'Reuters
The gradual withdrawal of unprecedented stimulus by the world's big central banks is officially underway, posing a new challenge to investors: how to decipher monetary policy that will increasingly amount to not much more than words.

Alan Greenspan Is Still Trying to Justify His Bad DecisionsThe New Republic
What the maestro doesn't understand

The Facebooking of EconomicsKrugman / NYT
Don’t feel nostalgic for the days of authority figures dominating the discourse. Intellectually, in economics at least, these are the good old days.

Top 200 Influential Economics Blogs: Aug 2013Onalytica

The repo market as a form of free bankingalphaville / FT
An interesting byproduct of both the “Is QE deflationary?” and “Does Bitcoin have value?” debates is that many things that have previously been taken for granted are being questioned, re-evaluated or, more pertinently still, remembered. Chief among them is the question of how our money system really operates.

The theory of money entanglement (Part 1)alphaville / FT
While it may appear on the surface that fiat money reigns supreme, all money is neutral and that central banks have ultimate control over money supply — in reality the system represents an entangled money web.

The theory of money entanglement (Part 2)alphaville / FT
There are a number of reasons why banks choose to voluntarily fund and capitalise themselves when — thanks to the power of their own seigniorage — they don’t have to.

Getting qualitative with monetary policyalphaville / FT
It may be better to judge qualitative easing as the free market forcing state ownership of ever more assets — especially inferior ones from a capital return perspective — rather than the central bank forcing the market to hand over assets to the state involuntarily.

Phillips Curve Nonlinearities in the DataEconbrowser
Over the period of the Great Moderation, has inflation responded linearly to the output gap?

Phillips Curves and Fisher RelationsNew Monetarism

What if we got the sign wrong on monetary policy?John Cochrane

Getting the right sign on the nominal interest rate signalWorthwhile

Some initial thoughts on John CochraneThe Money Illusion

The shakeup at the Minneapolis Fed is a battle for the soul of macroeconomics—againQuartz
The shakeup may be a part of big changes that are happening at the Fed, as well as a tectonic shift in the field of economics itself.

Freshwater and Saltwater Economists: A Creation StoryConversable Economist
Back in the late 1970s, when I was first shaking hands with economics, the standard dividing line in macroeconomics was phrased as "monetarists" vs. "Keynesians." But that distinction was already becoming obsolete.

Is Economics a House Divided? Analysis of Citation NetworksAalto
The strongest division is much stronger than could be expected to be found under idiosyncratic citation patterns, and is consistent with the reputed freshwater/saltwater division in macroeconomics. The division is stable over time, but varies across the fields of economics.

"Freshwater vs. Saltwater" divides macro, but not financeNoahpinion
There's an easy explanation for why finance is the least divided: It has the best data

Is finance guided by good science or convincing magic?Magic, Maths, Money
Finance is actually more committed to 'rituals' around risk management than the 'science' of risk management, and this seems to be facilitated by mathematics.

Exchanges on the merits of microfoundationsStorify

Why microfoundations have meritLong and Variable

Microfoundations - the illusion of necessary superioritymainly macro

Usual comment on Wren-LewisRobert’s Stochastic Thought

I love microfoundations. Just not yours.Noahpinion

Simon Wren Lewis on ‘mainly microfounded macro’Long and Variable

More on the illusion of superioritymainly macro

Does finance need money/macrofoundations?Worthwhile

Microfoundations and the Parting of the WatersKrugman / NYT

Uber and the Macro WarsKrugman / NYT