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Tuesday, December 31

31st Dec - 2014 preview

I will update this post when new stuff comes along.


Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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EUROPE
The Eurozone’s Crossroad Project Syndicate
Heading into 2014, financial markets are quiet and Europe’s politicians are relieved, but the fundamental problems that have driven the euro crisis for the last four years remain. That is why complacency is misguided – and why the current respite should be used to address the eurozone's permanent architecture.



What euro crisis watchers should look for in 2014Wolfgang M√ľnchau / FT
Emphasis shifts from policy choices to their consequences


Ukraine’s crisis may run and runFT

Turkey 2014: More Volatility As Politics Add To Fed-Driven RisksWSJ

UNITED STATES
Looking Up in 2014?Project Syndicate
Martin Feldstein: The US economy will continue to face considerable risks in 2014, owing to the effects of higher interest rates and uncertainty about taxes. But the US now has a better chance of achieving significantly higher real GDP growth than at any time since the downturn began.

Five Challenges for the Federal Reserve in 2014WSJ
A look at five challenges the Fed--especially Janet Yellen, the presumptive successor to Chairman Ben Bernanke--will face next year.

U.S. Population Grows … But At A Snail’s PaceWSJ
The U.S. economy is picking up steam going into the New Year—but not enough, apparently, to nudge up the nation’s population that much.


Preliminary: 2014 Housing ForecastsCalculated Risk




5 Questions on the Economy to Be Answered in 2014WSJ
Will businesses finally shed their caution? * Will Washington's tentative truce continue? *  Will the Fed's path out of bond buying get bumpy? * Will housing adjust easily to higher interest rates? * Will the rest of the world cooperate?


Questions for 2014:
Downside Risks – Calculated Risk
How much will housing inventory increase in 2014? – Calculated Risk
Housing Credit: Will we see easier mortgage lending in 2014? – Calculated Risk
What will happen with house prices in 2014? – Calculated Risk
How much will Residential Investment increase? – Calculated Risk
Monetary Policy: Will the Fed end QE3 in 2014? – Calculated Risk
Will too much inflation be a concern in 2014? – Calculated Risk
What will the unemployment rate be in December 2014? – Calculated Risk


How many payroll jobs will be added in 2014? – Calculated Risk
How much will the economy grow in 2014? – Calculated Risk


ASIA
China’s Policy DisharmonyProject Syndicate
China was hardly lacking in policy pronouncements in the final months of 2013. Given the likely tradeoffs between strategy and tactics – that is, between long-term reforms and short-term growth – can Chinese policymakers really accomplish all of their objectives?

Don’t be afraid of slower Chinese growthFT

China’s slower growth is cause for optimismFT

China’s Economy: Five Barometers of Change in 2014WSJ

Asia: Disappointing Exports, Volatile RatesWSJ

Asia in 2014? Watch JapanFT

Asia: Stronger Exports, Political Risks, Property Markets to CorrectWSJ

Asia: Low Inflation, Rising Interest Rates, Japan’s Role, and the Need for ReformWSJ

Asia: Crucial Year for Reforms, Japanese SupportWSJ


Asia: Lower Growth Beta, Taper Strikes Back and MoreWSJ

5 Things to Watch: Business in China in 2014WSJ

China: Three key events for the year aheadTradingFloor

China Moves Slowly Toward State Sector OverhaulWSJ
In the weeks since the Communist Party’s Third Plenum there have been some noises – if not quite a drumbeat – that suggest there might be movement towards reform of state companies.

What the RBI Is Worried About in 2014WSJ
On Monday, the Reserve Bank of India released its semi-annual Financial Stability Report which assesses risks to India’s economy and financial sector. Here are five key areas where the RBI forsees potential risks for India in 2014.

China Faces Local Debt Conundrum in 2014The Diplomat
An audit shows local government debt at a level that requires action.

Japan Consumer Prices Seen Rising Five Times as Fast as WagesBB
Japanese employers will fail in the next fiscal year to heed Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s goal of wage increases that outpace inflation, highlighting risks that the nation’s recovery will stall, surveys of economists show.

Four Flashpoints to Watch in 2014The Diplomat
After a tense 2013, don’t expect the Asia-Pacific to be any less fraught next year.



5 Ways To Profit From A China Downturn In 2014Asia Confidential / ZH



WSJ'S CENTRAL BANK SPECIAL


What Will Central Banking Look Like in 2014?WSJ
Inflation is slowing in the developed world but not clearly tamed in developing economies. Growth is highly uneven across the globe and the next big shift in capital flows unknown. Against that backdrop, central banks are charting different courses.

European Central Bank — 2014 OutlookWSJ
The European Central Bank has shown it can conduct crisis management with the best of them, using a verbal commitment to buy government bonds of stressed countries to stabilize southern European debt markets and preserve the euro.

Federal Reserve — 2014 OutlookWSJ
The U.S. Federal Reserve enters a year of leadership transition and debates over how to wind down some of its easy money policies as the economy strengthens in 2014.

Bank of Japan — 2014 OutlookWSJ
For Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda, 2013 was a good year. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe picked him in the spring to lead the central bank in its mission to turn around falling prices.

People’s Bank of China — 2014 OutlookWSJ
China’s central bank needs to get a mix of offense and defense right in 2014. On the offense, People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan was brought back for a third term by China’s top leaders, despite Mr. Zhou having reached the bank’s retirement age of 65. Mr. Zhou’s mission: to put in place a reform agenda that stalled under China’s former leaders.

Bank of England — 2014 OutlookWSJ
The Bank of England enters 2014 looking out over an economy finally picking up speed after several years in the slow lane. With unemployment falling faster than the central bank predicted, the item at the top of officials’ agenda will be whether to tweak BOE Gov. Mark Carney’s flagship “forward guidance” policy.

Reserve Bank of Australia — 2014 Outlook WSJ
Australia’s central bank governor Glenn Stevens heads into 2014 with few tools left to spur the resource-rich economy as a long mining boom fades, other than jaw-boning the local currency.

Bank of Canada — 2014 OutlookWSJ
The key question for the Bank of Canada in 2014 is whether it will cut interest rates to counter low inflation.

National Bank of Poland — 2014 OutlookWSJ
Poland's monetary policy council will watch for the right moment in 2014 to begin tightening credit to prevent faster growth from stoking higher inflation.

Hungarian National Bank — 2014 OutlookWSJ
Hungary will sustain its easy money policies in 2014 as long as financial markets permit, aiming to juice a feeble recovery and help the government's economic policy.

Bank of Russia — 2014 OutlookWSJ
The Bank of Russia has shown surprising resistance to calls for easier monetary policies to bolster waning economic growth, and is expected to keep doing so as it focuses on fighting inflation and combating money laundering and tax evasion.

National Bank of Denmark — 2014 OutlookWSJ
Denmark’s central bank is an anomaly in the central bank world in that its mandate is simply to keep the Danish currency, the krone, trading within a specified band against the euro, even though Denmark has no intention of joining the euro currency union.

Norges Bank — 2014 OutlookWSJ
Norway’s central bank has spent the last 18 months delaying the timing of future interest rate hikes. There is little to suggest that 2014 is going to be radically different.

Sweden’s Riksbank — 2014 OutlookWSJ
The coming year will be another one in which the world’s oldest central bank, must balance its concerns about high levels of household borrowing and low inflation.

Swiss National Bank — 2014 OutlookWSJ
The Swiss National Bank will likely hold interest rates near zero for a third consecutive year as the central bank tries to mute demand for the country’s currency without stoking a real estate bubble.

Bank of Indonesia — 2014 OutlookWSJ
Indonesia’s central bank is facing a dilemma: whether to raise rates further -- slowing the economy -- or allow its currency to fall further.  

Bank of Korea — 2014 OutlookWSJ
South Korea’s central bank expects its export-dependent economy to do better in 2014 as global growth strengthens. But there’s one major concern: a weaker yen.

Reserve Bank of India — 2014 OutlookWSJ
Raghuram Rajan’s big challenge in 2014 will be building on the gains he’s scored since taking the helm of India’s central bank last fall.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand — 2014 OutlookWSJ
New Zealand’s central bank has held interest rates steady for nearly three years. Now, rising costs of housing and a swiftly improving economy could prompt it to raise rates as soon as January.

OTHER
2014 Outlook: Annus Not-So-HorribilisMarc to Market

Three big macro questions for 2014Gavyn Davies / FT
When will the Fed start to worry about supply constraints in the US * Will China bring excess credit growth under control? Will the ECB confront the zero lower bound?

Fourteen Investment Risks for 2014 WSJ

A world economy on the brink of fracture The Telegraph
What will happen in 2014? The Chinese economy will slow; the price of oil will sink; Germany will slide into recession; the UK will remain intact and the internet will begin to Balkanise

Goldman's Top Economist Answers The Most Important Questions For 2014BI

Hardy: My FX outlook for 2014TradingFloor
Expect plenty of nervousness in the forex markets in the first quarter of 2014, that's according to Saxo's John Hardy. With the Fed due to taper its bond buying programme soon, the markets could be distorted by the odd weak data point.


Great dollar rally of 2014 as Fukuyama's History returns in tooth and clawThe Telegraph
China and Japan are on a quasi-war footing, one misjudgement away from a chain of events that would shatter all economic assumptions



5 Things To Ponder: The “2014 New Year’s” EditionPragCap



Five predictions for financial markets in 2014Anatole Kaletsky / Reuters



Podcast: MoneyBeat’s 2014 PredictionsWSJ

5 Things To Ponder: The "2014 New Year's" EditionZH
 


The tricks of trade – weak global growth isn’t the only problemFT

10 tech trends to look out for in 2014FT

Russia has woken up to its problems, but can it find a solution?FT

Factors to titillate EM investors in 2014FT

EMs still have room to boomFT

Hello 2014: another difficult year for emerging equitiesbeyondbrics / FT