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Sunday, December 1

1st Dec - Weekender: Linkfest

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Brussels blog round up 23 – 29 NovemberEuropp / LSE
Berlusconi expelled, Scotland’s EU membership, and what now for EU-Ukraine relations?

The euro and price
During the recent turmoil in the Eurozone, little attention has been paid to one of the euro’s founding objectives – price convergence. This column argues that the euro has in fact been very successful in this regard. In a study of the pricing behaviour of Apple, IKEA, H&M, and Zara, the authors find that price dispersion is 30–50% lower for countries in a currency union than for those with a fixed exchange rate.

The EU’s new Single Bank Resolution
Of the three pillars of the nascent European banking union, establishing a unified bank-resolution mechanism is the most pressing issue. This column suggests some changes to the existing Single Resolution Mechanism proposals. The decision to initiate resolution should be left to the ECB and national resolution authorities. Debt automatically convertible into equity when capital thresholds are violated could partially replace liabilities subject to bail-in. The Single Bank Resolution Fund must be supranational to ensure the credibility of the mechanism.

Modern Europe looks little like the 1930s, but we should take note of growing criticism over the way European democracy worksEuropp / LSE
A number of commentators have drawn a parallel between the rise of radical right parties in several European countries and developments in Europe during the 1930s. Duncan McDonnell argues that media coverage of this nature is not in line with the evidence from European democracies. He writes that our focus should instead be placed on the rise of critical voices which claim democracy in Europe, at both national and supranational levels, is no longer working.

Slovenia’s financial crisis: Stressed outThe Economist
The fight to avoid the sixth eurozone bailout reaches climax

Netherlands Loses Triple-A Rating, Spain Outlook RaisedWSJ
S&P removes Dutch from triple-A club, lifts outlook for SpainReuters
S&P raises Cyprus to B- as risks to economy recedeReuters

Downgraded Netherlands is another victim of EMU money messThe Telegraph
It is dangerous to flirt with deflation when debt ratios are so high, yet that is exactly what is now happening in Holland.

Northern discomfort The Economist
The decision by Standard & Poor’s to strip the Netherlands of its coveted AAA rating is a vivid illustration of the damage that the euro crisis has wreaked not just on the troubled economies of southern Europe but also within the northern core.

Macro Viewpoint on rating convergence in EuropeNordea
A downward movement of some of the high ratings is a broader phenomenon than an upward change of low ratings.

Moody's upgrades Greek government debtSober Look

A Stumbling Core Presents ECB Fresh WorriesWSJ
The latest mini-bombshell to hit the euro-zone economy was the decision of credit agency Standard & Poor’s to strip Netherlands sovereign debt of its AAA-rating

Focus Germany: Launchpad to the pastDB Research
The coalition intends to hugely increase pension benefits, introduce a minimum wage and increase public spending. There is as little provision for tax hikes (SPD campaign issues) as for tax relief (CDU and CSU pledges). Trend growth, in particular labour supply, will be weakened. Inefficiencies in energy policy will be inadequately addressed. The sustainability of public finances will be substantially reduced.

Germany: Die grosse StagnationThe Economist
The coalition’s 185-page “treaty” was a chance to launch a new reform agenda. Instead, its proposals are a mixture of the irrelevant—charging foreigners to use German motorways—and the harmful.

Where Did All The German Savings Go?WSJ
Germans rankle at criticism of their country's strong export performance, arguing it denigrates their economic success. Maybe they should look at it another way: How do they feel about losing hundreds of billions from their savings?

Carney’s Housing Alarm Bell Nudges BOE Toward Stimulus ExitBB
U.K. House Prices Rise in Revival That Prompted Carney ResponseBB
Pound Rises Third Day as Carney Moves to Counter Housing BubbleBB

Speech by Yves Mersch: Mastering the crux of defragmentationECB

Should the ECB go negative?Money Matters
There are significant uncertainties for at most a modest benefit. If the ECB choice was an investment choice, one would say that the Sharpe ratio is unfavourable

Negative Rate Experiment in Denmark Seen Stretching to 2015BB
Economists at Denmark’s biggest banks predict the nation’s benchmark interest rate, which has been negative since July 2012, won’t climb over zero until 2015 marking an historic experiment with extreme monetary policy.

Europe’s Real Inflation ProblemProject Syndicate
The ECB’s recent interest-rate cuts clearly reflect its concern about the risk of negative inflation. But, while the ECB cannot be accused of neglecting the deflation risk, the difficulty with its stance is that keeping annual inflation at around 1% is hardly enough.

Please sir, I want some more: Italy editionalphaville / FT
Presenting Italy, a central plank in the argument for a new vLTRO or at least an extension of what we already have

Eurozone liquidity is getting tightalphaville / FT

ECB contemplating new LTRO - with a twistSober Look
Conditional on lending

Euro inflation still below ECB's target, ECB will act again in Q1 14 – Danske Bank
European Unemployment – ZH
European Inflation Rises From The Ashes On Rebound In Energy Prices – ZH
Progress on Euro Zone Inflation – WSJ
Euro area annual inflation up to 0.9% - Eurostat

A Deeper Look at Those Skeptical Charts on Forward Earnings EstimatesDash of Insight

Will the Fed "Taper" in December? Inflation is the KeyCalculated Risk

Citi "Skeptical Of The Sustainability Of This Uptrend"ZH

Japan Finances Worse Than at War’s EndWSJ

Visualizing Abenomics - Japan's Dangerous ExperimentZH

Thai protesters step-up action, PM flees buildingReuters
About 30,000 protesters launched a "people's coup" on Thailand's government, swarming multiple state agencies in violent clashes, taking control of a broadcaster and forcing the prime minister to flee a police compound.

Things That Make You Go Hmmm...ZH
Like Japan's "Economics Of The Hopeless"

BofAML's Top 10 Emerging Market Risks In 2014ZH

Great Graphic: Rent Relative to House Prices in High Income CountriesMarc to Market

Emerging Markets: What has ChangedMarc to Market

The Long Short RunProject Syndicate
Japan since the start of the 1990’s provides strong evidence that what economists call "the short run" can last for decades, and then be followed not by a return to the old normal, but by a transition to a new normal in which economic depression casts a long shadow. What we have seen since 2008 is that Japan is not an exception.

Colleges are teaching economics backwardsWaPo

The Wolf of Wall Street Can’t SleepNY Mag
You can see why Leonardo DiCaprio wanted to play Jordan Belfort in the movie.

Hajautetusta eläkejärjestelmästäJaakko Kiander
Kiander: Eläkeyhtiöiden yhdistäminen veisi suomalaisyhtiöt ulkomaiseen omistukseenYLE
Eläkevakuutusyhtiö Ilmarisen johtaja Jaakko Kiander katsoo, että Sampsa Katajan (kok.) esitys yhdestä julkisesta eläkeyhtiöstä nykyisten useiden yhtiöiden tilalle ei ole kannatettava. Kianderin mukaan nykyinen järjestelmä mahdollistaa suomalaisen omistuksen tukemisen.

Ylen aamu-tvYLE
Entinen Keva-pomo Ylellä: "Asfalttikartellit nappikauppaa verrattuna siihen, paljonko eläkejärjestelmään hassataan"TE

Pitkän mediayrittäjän uran tehnyt kansanedustaja Eero Lehti vertaa alan murrosta hevosiin ja autoon. Kun autot yleistyivät, hevosvankkureilta putosi bisnes alta.

Jos euro olisi elintarvike, se olisi vedettävä myynnistäJan Hurri / TalSa
EU:n komissio ja EKP kehuvat euroa väittämillä, jotka ovat makeaa markkinointia mutta eivät totta. Kriisi ja nyt myös tuore tutkimus osoittavat, että väitteet euron suopeista talousvaikutuksista ovat keskeisiltä osin puppua. Jos euro olisi elintarvike ja sitä mainostettaisiin samaan tapaan perättömillä terveysvaikutuksilla, olisi se vedettävä myynnistä.

Ohje rasismin kitkemisestä opettajilleVerkkouutiset
"Kaikki negatiivinen sivuutetaan ilman huomiota"

Osakeasuntojen hinnat laskivat hieman lokakuussaTilastokeskus
Kansantalouden tuottavuuskehitys 1976-2012Tilastokeskus

Toimittajat arvostelevat kaikkia muita kuin itseäänStefan Wallin / Verkkouutiset

Työttömyysetuuksiin 300 euron suojaosaVerkkouutiset
Soviteltua työttömyyspäivärahaa saava työtön voi jatkossa ansaita 300 euroa kuukaudessa ilman, että se pienentäisi hänen työttömyysetuuttaan.

Sini Saarela ja yhteinen hyväUlla Appelsin / IS

Rahapoliittisen sodan liekit loimottavat EKP:n ikkunoistaHeikki Ikonen / Piksu
Kirjoittanut Heikki Ikonen La, 30/11/2013 - 14:11

Johtajien palkoistaAkateeminen talousblogi

Islanti alkaa maksaa kansan asuntolainojaTalSa

Näin Islannissa: hallitus karauttaa asuntovelkaisten apuunTE

Eurovaalien "iso jytky" näyttää nyt tältäKL
Jos eurovaalit järjestettäisiin nyt, EU-kriittiset oikeistoryhmittymät haalisivat lisää paikkoja Euroopan parlamentista, mutta perussuomalaisten EFD-ryhmä pienenisi.