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Wednesday, December 4

4th Dec - ECB tomorrow, payrolls on Friday

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Joseph Stiglitz: An Agenda to Save the EuroProject Syndicate
It has been three years since the outbreak of the euro crisis, and only an inveterate optimist would say that the worst is definitely over. It is not, and it won't be unless and until the eurozone's structure is fundamentally reformed.

Economic Outlook Nordics: DivergenceNordea
The Nordic countries currently display diverging economic growth patterns. The once so strong Norwegian economy is heading for a sharp downturn, while Denmark, the past years’ growth laggard, is gaining momentum after several years of housing market crisis. The Swedish export sector has faced massive problems over the past few years, but now better times are ahead as activity internationally picks up. Finland is struggling with huge growth problems related to both domestic and foreign demand.

The European Union’s Benchmark Fines: A BreakdownWSJ, ZH
The European Union’s antitrust regulator on Wednesday slapped fines on eight financial institutions for alleged collusion to fix benchmarks affecting yen and euro interest rate derivatives.

European Equities Breaking DownThe Short Side of the Long

Q&A on negative ECB deposit rateNordea

What to Expect From ECB MeetingWSJ
The ECB is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at record lows following Thursday's monthly meeting of its rate-setting board, after surprising markets with a cut in its key lending rate to 0.25% last month.

Watchful ECB likely to keep powder dry tomorrow TradingFloor
I expect no action from the ECB at its December meeting Thursday, but President Mario Draghi, backed up by new, modest, staff projections, will keep the overall tone of the meeting dovish.

ECB's Draghi needs to plunge a fork into the EURUSD rallyTradingFloor
The sluggish, yet persistent, EURUSD rally of the past four weeks may be coming to a close, but ECB President Mario Draghi is the only one who can really put a fork in it. The US employment report, out Friday, is looming as well.

Will the ECB’s minutes overrun?Money Supply / FT
However, a few months ago Mario Draghi made quite a firm pledge to tell us by the end of the autumn how the ECB intended to go about producing an “account” of the governing council’s policy deliberations. Will Mr Draghi end up breaking his promise?

PREs, VSPs, and the ECBKrugman / NYT
Whatever Praet may privately think, he and his boss have to deal with Europe’s Very Serious People — people who believe in austerity regardless of circumstances, and who also say things like this, from the Bundesbank’s Jens Weidmann, declaring that “the money printer is definitely not the way to solve [Europe's problems]“.

Euro area GDP: investments beginning to pick up – Danske Bank
Euro-Area Economic Growth Slows as Exports, Consumption Cool – BB
Great Graphic: Eurozone Output PMI and GDP – Marc to Market

Trade in goods and services October 2013 – BEA
Deficit Shrinks To $40.6 Billion As October Petroleum Exports Rise To New Record – ZH
Trade Deficit decreased in October to $40.6 Billion – Calculated Risk

November 2013 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business – ISM
ISM Services Miss (Lowest Since June) As Employment Plunges To 6-Month Lows – ZH
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 53.9 indicates slower expansion in November – Calculated Risk
ISM Services Weaker Than Expected – Bespoke
U.S. service sector growth slows in November: ISM survey – Reuters
U.S. private sector activity bounces back in November: Markit – Reuters

New Home Sales Surge By Most Since 1980 As Median Price Drops To One Year Low – ZH
New Home Sales increased to 444,000 Annual Rate in October – Calculated Risk
New home sales surge in October, supply dwindles – Reuters

Australia Viewpoint: Broad-based weakness after the boomNordea
The Q3 GDP report emphasises that the domestic economy remains weak ahead of a sharp decline in mining investment. With further fiscal consolidation on the cards we therefore believe that the RBA will cut rates again, partly aiming for a weaker AUD to help rebalancing the economy. Thus we expect a new 25bp rate cut in Q1 2014 (likely in March). Against this background, we have lowered our AUD forecast.

Talousnäkymät – Tiet erkanevatNordea
Globaali kasvu on pikkuhiljaa paranemassa kehittyneiden maiden vedolla. Näkymiä kohentavat löysä rahapolitiikka ja aikaisempaa pienempi finanssipoliittinen sopeutus sekä poliittisten riskien pieneneminen Yhdysvalloissa ja Euroopassa. Euroaluekin on ponnistamassa kasvuun. Saksassa kasvu on vahvaa, mutta Etelä- ja Keski-Euroopassa se pysyy erittäin kituliaana. Pohjoismaat ovat kulkemassa eri suuntiin. Ruotsin kasvua pitää yllä vahva yksityinen kulutus, mitä vientisektori alkaa tukea kansainvälisen talouden elpymisen myötä. Norjan kasvu puolestaan on hyytymässä, ja maan asuntohinnat laskevat ennustehorisontilla jopa 20 %. Suomessa kasvu alkaa viennin vedon kautta. Siitä tosin ei ole vielä mitään merkkejä. Niinpä olemme alentaneet Suomen talouden kasvuarvioitamme kautta linjan vuosille 2013-2015.

Suomi-laiva uppoaa, jos EKP ei auta - ainakin nämä neljä ammusta osuvat vesirajan alleYLE
Usein niin positiivisesti elämään suhtautuvan Nordean tänään keskiviikkona julkaisema talousennuste oli synkkä. Suomen ja muun maailman tiet erkanevat.

Nordea maalaa talouden lähitulevaisuuden synkin sävyinVerkkouutiset
Ainoat valopilkut ovat matalla pysyvät korot ja maltillinen inflaatio.

Sauli Niinistön tekemän megaluokan harhautuksen ydinVerkkomedia