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Wednesday, February 26

26th Feb - US housing worries, EM trouble rising

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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An Attempt To Explain EuropeForbes
Frances Coppola: my attempt to explain how Europe, the European Union and the Euro differ from each other but are all related to each other. And all are subject to change.

The European Commission's new economic forecastsOpen Europe
Fragile recovery continues, but problems remain

Changing Trade Patterns Could Threaten Euro ZoneWSJ
The euro zone is slowly coming to grips with its banking and debt problems, but may have to prepare for a new round of turbulence if a paper published by the Brussels-based Breugel think tank is on the mark.

Turkish Lira Blows Out As Graft Scandal Comes Back With A VengeanceZH

Ukraine Currency Crashes To Record Low; Abandons Dollar PegZH

Sustaining Ukraine’s BreakthroughGeorge Soros / Project Syndicate
Following a crescendo of terrifying violence, the Ukrainian uprising has had a surprisingly positive outcome. But whether Ukrainians' newfound unity endures will depend on how Europe responds.

Putin Launches Military Drill In Western, Central Russia; Ruble Drops To Lowest Since 2009 – ZH
Alarm in Ukraine as Putin puts Russian troops on alert – Reuters
USD Jumps Most In A Month As Russia Rattles Saber – ZH
NATO Responds To Russian Military Drill, Backs "Inviolability" Of Ukraine Frontiers – ZH
Russian Lukoil Halts Oil Supplies To Ukraine Odessa Refinery – ZH
Hryvnia Down 17% in Two Weeks; 7% of Bank Deposits Withdrawn in 3 Days – Mish’s
ECB to take the QE plunge this year…finallyReuters

Bundesbank Explains How Lithuania Affects Its ECB VoteWSJ
Euro Inflation Research #3: ECB’s medium-term outlook for inflationDanske Bank
Who wields supreme power over the ECB?
This column analyses the recent ruling by the German Constitutional Court that the ECB cannot act as lender of last resort. Although seemingly couched by the referral of this decision to the European Court of Justice, this is a bid for power and the return to the pre-crisis paradigm of ‘ultra posse nemo obligatur’.

2008: Liquidity crisis, or solvency crisis?Noahpinion
The Housing Market's Wild RideBB
For more than a decade, the U.S. housing market has been on a wild ride -- from bubble to bust to recovery. Check out this interactive data visualization explaining what happened and why.

The best part of the housing price recovery may be overWaPo
The rise in prices during the past two years is showing signs of leveling off, with month-to-month increases slowing down

Update: Seasonal Pattern for House PricesCalculated Risk
Comment on House Prices: Real Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio, CitiesCalculated Risk
New Home Sales: Don't read too much into January Sales RateCalculated Risk
I've been hearing reports of a slowdown in house price increases (more than the usual seasonal slowdown), and perhaps this slowdown in price increases is finally showing up in the Case-Shiller index.  This makes sense since inventory is starting to increase.

Strong US new home sales don't change slowdown in US housing market – Danske Bank
Don’t Get Excited by Jump in New Home Sales – WSJ
U.S. Housing Markets Faces Growing Wealth Inequality – WSJ
Have Home Prices Peaked?WSJ
Why Higher Interest Rates Could Depress Housing Turnover – WSJ

Tarullo: Monetary policy and financial stabilityBIS
Fed’s Tarullo Sees Signs of Market RisksWSJ
Tarullo on Monetary Policy and Financial StabilityTim Duy’s Fed Watch
The Fed continues to explore the role of monetary policy in addressing asset bubbles.  But engaging such concerns head on with tighter policy remains a secondary option… by the time the Fed feels they are left with no other option but to tighten policy to limit financial instability risks, the damage will already have been done. 

Dudley: Global financial stability - the road aheadBIS
Rosengren: Still Weak Job Market Calls for PatienceWSJ
Monitor: Chinese Credit CrunchDanske Bank
Money market rates have plunged in recent weeks, suggesting that People’s Bank of
China has de facto started easing.

The instability in central bank divergenceFT
Mohamed El-Erian: A careful reading of recent policy statements in advanced economies points to an intriguing possibility: after being forced into quite a similar stance, individual central banks will try to implement more differentiated monetary policy approaches. The driver is greater evidence of multispeed economic growth. The challenge is for other components of economic policies to support the more differentiated set of central bank policies. And what is fundamentally at stake is the much-desired shift from policy-induced growth to genuine self-sustaining private sector engines.

FX Board for February 26:  A risk bump in the afternoonTradingFloor
Commodity currencies are wilting a bit and the supermajors are stirring as risk appetite tectonics are suddenly shifting late in the day today, perhaps on geopolitical concerns over Russia and Ukraine.

Are frontier markets overvalued?FT
Only rarely in the recent past have FM equity valuations traded at such a generous premium to EM counterparts.

The Economic Roadmap Ahead: "It Isn't That Complicated"Gordon Long


Iiro Viinanen ammattiyhdistysliikkeestä: Ei tulisi ikäväStudio 55

Taas paljastui yksi asia, joka eurossa on pielessäTE

Yksimielisesti umpikujassaAntti Pesonen / US
Uusia visioita haetaan usein asiantuntijoilta, mutta suomalaiselle umpikujakonsensukselle on ominaista se, että asiantuntijoiksi kutsutaan ihmisiä, joiden näkemysten tiedetään valmiiksi vastaavan vanhoja omia käsityksiä

Kevyemmät vyönkiristykset, silti enemmän harmiaJan Hurri / TalSa
Hallituksen havittelemat talouden vyönkiristykset näyttävät keveämmiltä kuin viime laman kulukuuri, mutta tämä on "säästösummien" harhaa. Viimeksi vyönkiristyksiä pehmensi kolme tärkeää apukeinoa – joista yksikään ei ole nyt tarjolla. Nyt kiristyksiä pehmentää korkeintaan aika, sillä niihin ei ole pakon sanelemaa kiirettä.

Ranska lipsahtamassa deflaatioon – kuinkas tässä nyt näin kävikäänTyhmyri