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Monday, February 3

3rd Feb - Waiting for the CBs

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Rückführung alert: CDU says repatriation of EU powers must be possibleOpen Europe

Third Greek Bailout Package Is Finally On DeckZH

Euro zone deficit shrinks to almost within EU limit in Q3Reuters

Euro Rates UpdateNordea

Corruption Perception IndexZH
Greece Is (Officially) The Most Corrupt European Nation

Germany’s resurgence and the lessons for
In a slow-growth, high-unemployment continent, Germany’s performance stands out. The success is often ascribed to the politically difficult Hartz labour-market reforms. This column discusses evidence to the contrary. The Hartz reforms played no essential role. Rather, the key was the threat of offshoring to central Europe together with the pre-Hartz structure and autonomy of the German labour-market institutions. This structure allowed trade unions to make wage concessions necessary to adapt to the new realities. Other nations should decentralise bargaining to the firm level while keeping workers’ representatives.

Euro dogged by ECB talk, emerging markets sell-off grinds onReuters
Growing pressure for more policy easing in the euro zone pinned the euro near a 10-week low on Monday while persistent tension in emerging markets drove Hungary's forint to a 10-month trough and weighed on global stocks.

The heat is on the ECB... againNordea
At the January ECB meeting, Mr Draghi identified two triggers that could prompt new monetary easing: an unwarranted tightening of the money markets, and a worsening of the medium-term outlook for inflation. We believe none of the two triggers have been hit and hence expect no new ECB easing, but the tone of Mr Draghi is likely to remain dovish in the coming months.

To be, or not to be sterilised in the Eurozone?alphaville / FT
Citi’s research team highlights the important point that Germany’s Bundesbank has signalled that it is open to an end to ECB sterilisation operations. The move follows consecutive failures by the ECB to sterilise its bond purchases in the last month.

Press release: ECB makes progress with asset quality reviewECB  
Note on the comprehensive assessment Feb 2014ECB
Confirms stress test parameters for comprehensive assessment. Collection of first set of data completed, portfolio selection closes in mid-February. Stress test will incorporate the results of the asset quality review. As announced by the European Banking Authority, the capital thresholds for the baseline and adverse scenarios will be 8% and 5.5% Common Equity Tier 1 capital respectively

ECB to reveal strategy for bank health checks in first-quarterReuters

Shadow Fed? Bernanke’s move to Brookings solidifies think tank’s influenceWaPo

What can Abenomics teach us about macro (so far)?Noahpinion
Is Abenomics good for Japan? The answer is: So far, it's looking that way.

Monitoring JapanMacroMania
QE may be influencing the inflation rate and the exchange rate. But whether it is having a quantitatively significant impact on the real economy is far less certain.

In defence of China’s shadow banksalphaville / FT
Even at 30% of bank assets, the Chinese shadow banking system is small compared to those of other countries…In addition the Chinese shadow banking system is simpler and more domestically owned than that of more advanced DM jurisdictions.

Blogs review: The emerging market turmoilBruegel
As emerging countries’ central banks respond with sharp interest rate hikes to defend their currencies, many commentators wonder whether and how different this sudden stop will be from previous ones.

Post-panic paranoia plottedalphaville / FT
The European / Global banks most exposed to the more fragile EM markets are the Large Cap Spanish Banks…EM stock markets in countries with current account deficits have fared far worse that those with surpluses this year…Nobody seems to care about DM current accounts right now, but you never know – that could change.

Argentina: devaluation done, problems persistbeyondbrics / FT
FX reserves, high nominal but negative real interest rates, high inflation, price controls, budget deficit, low growth.

EM central bankers: guiders, reactors and mavericksbeyondbrics / FT

Emerging Markets Update: 2014 Looking RoughCFA Institute

Carney Seen Raising Rates Before Yellen, DraghiBB
Investors are betting Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will lead the charge out of record-low interest rates as central banks pivot from fighting stagnation to managing expansions.

The Best And Worst Performing Assets In JanuaryZH

Myytti Saksan sisäisestä devalvaatiostaTyhmyri
Elvis ilmestyi paahtoleivässä

Katainen otti kantaa Urpilaisen talouslinjauksiinTE
Yle: "Tilanne on niin paljon heikompi kuin yksikään analyytikko on arvioinut"

Korruptio Euroopassa noussut "hämmästyttävälle" tasolleTE
120 miljardia euroa vuodessa kankkulan kaivoon -

Talousprofessori: Suomelta puuttuu idea valtionvelan hillitsemisestäYLE
Hallituksen mukaan Suomen valtion velan kasvun taittaminen vaatisi kolmen miljardin euron lisäsäästöjä, joista puolet koottaisiin menoleikkauksilla ja puolet veronkorotuksilla. Valtiovarainministeri Urpilainen kuitenkin väläytti valtion velkaantumisen taittamisen aikatavoitteen harkitsemista uudelleen.

Professori 5 %:n palkka-alesta: Ei toimi, koska...TE

Euroopan talous tykittää: Teollisuudesta parhaat luvut lähes 3 vuoteenTE

Euroalueen budjettivaje supistui 3,1 prosenttiinTE

Huono lääke vai väärä annostus?Henri Myllyniemi / US

Elvyttääkö EKP lisää jo helmikuussa?Handelsbanken
Emme odota EKP:n leikkaavan ohjauskorkojaan helmikuun korkokokouksessaan, mutta hidas inflaatio ja jännitteet rahamarkkinoilla saattavat pakottaa EKP:n tarttumaan jonkinlaisiin likviditeettiä lisääviin toimiin.

Asiantuntijat: 5% palkka-alella olisi karmivat seurauksetIS
Talousnobelisti: "Euro oli perustavanlaatuinen virhe”  TE
”johtajat eivät tiedä, mitä pitäisi tehdä"

Presidentti Niinistö ja julkisen talouden kauhuluvutKalevi Sorsa Säätiö