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Tuesday, February 25

25th Feb: Special: Update Ukraine

Update on Ukraine:

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Ukraine events flow chart: all roads lead to uncertaintybeyondbrics / FT
This flow chart from Nomura may help clarify things. Or perhaps it serves to show just how complicated things are getting.

How to Avoid the Mistakes of the Orange RevolutionPIIE
Anders Åslund: The greatest external concern facing Ukraine is the threat of Russian aggression through trade sanctions, gas supply cuts, and covert military action. The West should focus on this as one of the most urgent security threats in the world.

Reviving Ukraine’s EconomyProject Syndicate
Anders Åslund: The United States and the EU need to persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to reach an understanding with Ukraine’s new leaders, rather than follow through on his threat to impose sanctions. Peaceful co-existence, not mounting bilateral tension, is in both countries’ best interest.

Guest post: what can the EU do to help Ukraine?beyondbrics / FT
What the EU must do now is demonstrate to the Ukrainian people that it is engaged in finding a path for Ukraine that will be determined by the Ukrainians themselves.

A Step Back From the Brink?IIF
The already acute financial pressures appear to have intensified further in recent weeks, with bank deposits falling sharply, the government out of funding and foreign exchange reserves likely to have tanked to as low as $12 billion by late February. The political change in Kiev has increased odds that Ukraine would receive the urgent financial assistance needed soon enough to avert default.

How to Win Ukraine's RevolutionView / BB
The trick is getting Russia to work with European nations in furthering its interests -- which are not necessarily at odds with those of the Western world. There is a deal to be had here that, in truth, has always been on the table: Ukraine will not join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which Putin sees as hostile, because a majority of Ukrainians don't want to. Ukraine will, however, slowly integrate further with the EU. Putin should now make it clear he will not stand in the way.

Will Ukraine aid come quickly enough?Brussels blog / FT
Aid would have to wait for a full IMF programme, so that may mean until after May’s presidential elections. So will Ukraine make it until then? Analysts are dubious, and the Ukrainian finance ministry’s declaration on Monday that they are seeking bilateral loans from the US and Poland in the next week or two certainly implies that they’re not sure they can make it that long either.

In Ukraine turbulence, a lad from Lviv becomes the toast of KievReuters
When the history of the bloody turbulence in Ukraine is written, a 26-year-old who learned combat skills in the army cadets may be recorded as the man who made up Viktor Yanukovich's mind to cut and run.

Ukraine Replaces Central Bank Head – BB
Acting Ukraine President May Seek New Government Today – BB
Ruble Cracks Seen Before Ukraine’s Deadly Descent: Russia Credit – BB
EU's Ashton promises Ukraine support, wants Russian help – Reuters