Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
Ukraine events flow
chart: all roads lead to uncertainty – beyondbrics
/ FT
This flow chart from Nomura may help clarify things. Or perhaps it
serves to show just how complicated things are getting.
Anders Åslund: The greatest external concern facing Ukraine is the threat of
Russian aggression through trade sanctions, gas supply cuts, and covert
military action. The West should focus on this as one of the most urgent
security threats in the world.
Anders Åslund: The United States and the EU need to persuade Russian
President Vladimir Putin to reach an understanding with Ukraine’s new leaders,
rather than follow through on his threat to impose sanctions. Peaceful
co-existence, not mounting bilateral tension, is in both countries’ best
interest.
What the EU must do now is demonstrate to the Ukrainian people that it
is engaged in finding a path for Ukraine that will be determined by the
Ukrainians themselves.
A Step Back From the
Brink?
– IIF
The already acute financial pressures appear to have intensified further
in recent weeks, with bank deposits falling sharply, the government out of
funding and foreign exchange reserves likely to have tanked to as low as $12
billion by late February. The political change in Kiev has increased odds
that Ukraine would receive the
urgent financial assistance needed soon enough to avert default.
The trick is getting Russia to work with
European nations in furthering its interests -- which are not necessarily at
odds with those of the Western world. There is a deal to be had here that, in
truth, has always been on the table: Ukraine will not join the
North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which Putin sees as hostile, because a
majority of Ukrainians don't want to. Ukraine will, however,
slowly integrate further with the EU. Putin should now make it clear he will
not stand in the way.
Aid would have to wait for a full IMF programme, so that may mean until
after May’s presidential elections. So will Ukraine make it until then?
Analysts are dubious, and the Ukrainian finance ministry’s declaration on
Monday that they are seeking bilateral loans from the US and Poland in the next week or
two certainly implies that they’re not sure they can make it that long either.
When the history of the bloody turbulence in Ukraine is written, a
26-year-old who learned combat skills in the army cadets may be recorded as the
man who made up Viktor Yanukovich's mind to cut and run.
Ukraine Replaces Central
Bank Head – BB
Ruble Cracks Seen Before Ukraine’s Deadly Descent: Russia Credit – BB