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Thursday, February 6

6th Feb - After ECB, payrolls and debt ceiling

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Tracking the causes of Eurozone external imbalances: New
External imbalances within the Eurozone grew substantially between the introduction of the euro in 1999 and the global financial crisis of 2008–09. Using new empirical evidence, this column argues that imbalances in the Eurozone periphery were mainly driven by a domestic demand boom, triggered by greater financial integration, with changes in the periphery’s competitiveness playing only a minor role. Internal devaluation may thus have been of limited effectiveness in restoring external balances, although better external competitiveness may eventually boost medium-term growth.

Rating Agencies Differ on Impact of Debt-Ceiling Deadline WSJ

Six Ways Debt Ceiling Brinkmanship Can Hurt the U.S. WSJ
Washington’s repeated brawls over raising the federal borrowing limit all ended without causing economic disasters. They haven't ended without economic damage altogether.

Market Cap to GDP: The Buffett Valuation Indicatordshort

The most important number in Friday’s jobs reportWaPo

Fed’s Plosser: QE Should End Before Unemployment Rate Hits 6.5% - WSJ
Plosser Sees 3% Growth in 2014 Warranting Faster QE Taper – BB
Fed’s Lockhart: Bond Taper Likely to Continue, Buying Ended by Fourth Quarter – WSJ
Fed’s Tarullo Says Efforts Needed to Curb Too-Big-to-Fail Risk – BB

Trade Deficit Widens More Than Forecast as Exports Decrease – BB
Trade Deficit increased in December to $38.7 Billion – Calculated Risk
U.S. trade deficit widens in December as exports fall – Reuters
Jobless claims fall, weak exports push up trade deficit – Reuters
U.S. productivity rises faster than expected in fourth quarter – Reuters

Emerging Market turmoil and the canary in the coal mineMoney Matters

How Fragile are Emerging Markets?Project Syndicate
Kenneth Rogoff: Unlike in the 1990’s, when fixed exchange rates were widespread, most countries now have shock-absorbing flexible rates. Indeed, today’s drama can be interpreted, in part, as a reflection of these shock absorbers at work.

EMEA Weekly, Week 7Danske Bank

Business Cycle Monitor: Global growth set for moderation in H1 14Danske Bank