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Sunday, February 9

9th Feb - W/E: Linkfest

Prof. Josef E. Stiglitz: "The Future of Europe"

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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The European Commission: Lagarde for presidentThe Economist
If ever Europe needed a competent reformer with new ideas, now is the time

German court parks tank on ECB lawn, kills OMT bond rescueThe Telegraph

German High Court Blows Up Euro, Says ‘Oh Wait,’ AbdicatesTestosterone Pit

How Germany Just Undercut the EuroMegan Greene

Why Germany Is No Fan of ‘Whatever It Takes’WSJ

Courts and contradictions: Karlsruhe speaks outThe World / FT

Who is exceeding their powers?The Economist

The German court’s futile search for Platonic essences of ‘monetaryness’ and ‘fiscalness’Long and Variable

Europe’s Ungainly Banking RevolutionProject Syndicate
Daniel Gros: Late last year, eurozone finance ministers reached a compromise on the basic elements of the SRM – that is, how to deal with banks in difficulty. The deal looks ugly, but it also appears likely to work.

ECB launches public consultation on draft ECB SSM Framework RegulationECB

ECB Spells Out New Supervisory Powers in Draft PaperWSJ
The ECB will become the ultimate authority for issuing and revoking bank licenses in countries that sign up to the European Union's banking union project, and assume the power to set higher capital requirements than those applied at national level

Consumer credit and deleveraging Sober Look
A very different picture emerges - one of significant consumer deleveraging that is only now beginning to stabilize.

U.S. jobless rate forces Yellen's hand on Fed guidanceReuters
It was more than a year ago that the U.S. central bank first promised not to raise interest rates until joblessness fell to at least 6.5 percent, a pledge that policymakers thought would hold until at least mid-2015.

Why monetary policy should ignore bubblesQuartz

CBO: Federal Deficit at $10 Billion in JanuaryCalculated Risk

We hit the debt ceiling today. These charts show when we could default.WaPo

The Debt Ceiling "X-Date" Is Back: May Hit As Soon As February 28ZH

Secretary Lew Sends Debt Limit Letter To CongressUS Treasury

QE Tapering: Impact Differs Amongst Emerging MarketsMoody’s

The ‘desperate duo’: currency stability – for nowbeyondbrics / FT
Argentina, and Ukraine: very different circumstances, but both countries are jumping at desperate measures to keep their currencies afloat. But meddling in the FX market doesn’t always work.

China Spurs Market Rout Blamed on Fed, Goldman Sachs AM SaysBB
China’s policy shifts are a bigger driver of the selloff in emerging markets than the Federal Reserve’s decision to dial back stimulus, according to Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

Troubled Times: Developing Economies Hit a BRICS WallSpiegel
Until recently, investors viewed China, Brazil and India as a sure thing. Lately, though, their economies have shown signs of weakness and money has begun flowing back to the West. Worries are mounting the BRICS dream is fading.

Emerging economies are outNordea
Recent years provide a good illustration of how sentiment in financial markets can change. About seven years ago the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China), eventually followed by South Africa (BRICS), were seen as rising stars in the economic firmament. Now BRICS as a concept is hardly mentioned anymore, and the emerging economies suffer from capital outflows. Some of this is blamed on the Fed’s decision to taper its bond-buying programme, but that is probably just part of the reason.

What Might Ignite Global Contagion?WSJ
The current sell-off in emerging markets and darkening investor mood in advanced economies hasn’t turned into a global cascade of financial contagion. But what could trigger widespread selling that routs the long hoped-for global recovery?

Thailand’s Troubled DemocracyBB

Foreign Exchange Controls Lift Ukraine's CurrencyWSJ
Central Bank Limits Individuals Purchases of Hryvnia, Waiting Period for Companies

Watching the 'China taper'Sober Look
While the rate of US taper is modest and reasonably well defined, signs point to slower economic expansion in China. And even in the near-term there is little visibility on that country's growth.

10 Books for Understanding China's EconomyThe Diplomat
Pacific Money writer James Parker recommends the most insightful economics and finance offerings.

S&P Lowers Outlook on Turkey to Negative From Stable – WSJ
S&P downgrades Turkey outlook to negative from stable – Reuters
Turkish Lira Dumps After S&P Warns, Cuts Turkish Outlook – ZH
Turkey Outlook Cut by S&P Citing ‘Hard Landing’ Risk – BB

The Singularity: Hedge Funds Become One with the S&P 500Barron’s

Earning and Revenue Beat Rates Remain StrongBespoke

Is the correction over?Humble Student
For now, my inner trader is getting ready for volatility and highly tempted to go short this market as the SPX approaches the 50 dma at about the 1810 level. My inner investor is yawning and ignoring all of the short-term fluctuations. If he had some new cash, he would regard the current weakness as a buying opportunity.

Are Commodities Breaking Out?Short Side of Long

FX Probe Extends To Options: "Oh God, Look What We've Uncovered" – ZH
Foreign-Exchange Options the Latest Issue to Come Under Scrutiny – WSJ
Currency Market Roiled by Trader Exits as Lawsky Probes Banks – Businessweek

Negative moneyWorthwhile
There are two parallel worlds. Both worlds use bits of coloured paper as money, because barter is very difficult. The green world uses green paper as money, and the red world uses red paper as money. The green paper money has a positive value. The red paper money has a negative value.

Separating real from nominal shocksWorthwhile
Nobody wants a monetary policy that creates nominal shocks. "Don't do random stuff with monetary policy for no reason at all!" is clearly sensible and uncontroversial advice. But finding a monetary policy that separates real shocks from nominal shocks, so that real shocks don't also create nominal shocks, is harder. But that is exactly the sort of monetary policy we want.

Stagnation by DesignJoseph E. Stiglitz / Project Syndicate
Our current difficulties are the result of flawed policies. There are alternatives.

Reinhart & Rogoff : Recovery From Financial Crises: Evidence From 100 EpisodesThe Big Picture

Comparing U.S. and Euro Area Unemployment RatesFED
Employment relative to the population has declined in the euro area, but the divergence of this measure from that of the United States is more modest than suggested by unemployment rates. The difference is that, unlike in the United States, the share of women in the euro area labor force is increasing, and that development accounts for roughly half of the current gap between unemployment rates in the two economies.

Does trend-chasing explain financial markets?Noahpinion

Speaking as an Old New Keynesian … - Mainly Macro

Brysselin kone: EU:n ja Kiinan suhteetYLE
Miten EU:n ja Kiinan taloudelliset suhteet ovat kehittymässä? Haastatteltavana dosentti Mikael Mattlin ja toimittajana Maija Elonehimo.

Elvytystä ja kiristystä mutta ei kunnolla kumpaakaanJan Hurri / TalSa
Talouspolitiikka mutkittelee elvytyksen ja vyönkiristysten välissä mutta ei tee kumpaakaan oikein kunnolla. Tulonsiirtojen automaattielvytys kasvattaa alijäämää ja velkaa mutta ei taloutta. Menoleikkurit ja veronkorotukset ärsyttävät taloutta mutta eivät saa sitä tasapainoon. Näin Suomi yhdistää kahden talousopin haitat ilman kummankaan hyötyjä.

Outo poikkeus – Suomi maksaa luottoluokituksestaJan Hurri / TalSa
Suomi maksaa luokitusyrityksille valtion oman luottokelpoisuuden arvioimisesta siitä huolimatta, että EU varoittaa ostoluokitusten riskeistä ja yrittää kitkeä niitä uuden luokitussääntelyn keinoin. Suomi toimii toisin kuin Ruotsi ja suuret EU-maat – ne eivät tilaa saati maksa luokituksia, mutta Suomi tilaa ja maksaa.

A-studio: Velka vie hallitus vikiseeYLE
Vieraina kansanedustajat Miapetra Kumpula-Natri (sd.) ja Kimmo Sasi (kok.) Aalto-yliopiston professorit Heikki Niskakangas ja Sixten Korkman.

SDP:n ykköstykillä ei hajuakaan valtion velan määrästäPS

Saksa, EKP ja Saksan perustuslakituomioistuin – Deutschland über alles!Tyhmyri

Syökö inflaatio velat – vain hetkellisesti nopean muutoksen yhteydessäTyhmyri

Suomi, SeurasaariSaloniemi
Mitä pikemmin pääsemme vanhasta teollisuudesta irti, ainakin tilastojen valossa sen parempi meille. Ja tässä on itseasiassa se suuri ongelma. Asioista päättävät vanhat harmaantuneet sedät joita kiinnostaa ainoastaan se, miten juuri oma firma saataisiin pysymään pinnan yläpuolella vielä edes hetken.

Valtion alijäämien hoitoon ei ole olemassa ”poppakonstia”Tuomas Malinen / US

Outoja käsityksiä rahapolitiikasta ja keskuspankeista – tällä kertaa asialla tutkijatohtori Tuomas MalinenTyhmyri