EUROPE
How Real Is The
Recovery In The Euro Area? – iMFdirect
The recovery is real, but the pace is weak, and more policy actions are
needed to boost growth and foster job creation.
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Sticking a finger
into the ECB’s air – alphaville
/ FT
On the QE front, while BNP remain, if not optimistic, than resigned to
it happening it is still hard to see how the barriers to it will be overcome.
It’s not that it’s illegal, it’s that reaching a consensus on the
practicalities of implementation seem more than difficult while at least a few
ECB governors seem to share Karlsruhe’s concerns. Perchance ½ per cent y/y on
inflation will do the trick…
Inflation preview -
vulnerable to another downside surprise – Nordea
We expect the
Euro-area flash HICP inflation estimate (Friday 11:00 CET) to be 0.7% y/y. We see risks skewed to
the downside to tomorrow’s number. However, with Germany out already, the risk of a number low enough
to prompt ECB easing next week in itself is probably fairly low, especially
because the German numbers were held down by falling energy prices.
UKRAINE
The return of
geopolitical risk – The
Economist
The new nations that form from the ashes of the old do not always have
neat geographical boundaries, homogeneous populations or stable political
leadership. Current geopolitical shifts are merely the aftemath of the great
shocks of 1989 and 1990.
The short- and long-term changes that are necessary to get the nation
through this crisis and back on the track to stability.
Recent history points to economic pain – FT
MACRO NUMBERS
Monetary Developments in the Euro Area: Jan 2014 – ECB
European Private Lending Remains Stuck At Record Low Levels – ZH
Improvement in monetary development but still weak – Danske
Bank
Euro zone lending contraction compounds ECB headache – Reuters
Business and Consumer Surveys – European
Commission
European Sentiment Improves, Lending Doesn’t – WSJ
Euro confidence edges higher as German power outweighs French woe – TradingFloor
European sentiment beats consensus to improve in February – TradingFloor
Euro zone sentiment improves, inflation expectations fall – Reuters
Spanish economy trundles on in fourth quarter – Reuters
Spanish Economy Grew Less Than Estimated in Fourth Quarter – BB
UNITED STATES
FEDERAL RESERVE
Yellen: Too Soon to Tell How Much Weather Has Softened Data – WSJ
Fed’s Fisher Would Be Open to Accelerating Taper – WSJ
MACRO NUMBERS
Durable goods orders mixed, jobless claims rise – Reuters
Durable goods orders ex-transportation rise in January – Reuters
Durable Goods Report: January Wasn’t As Bad As Expected – dshort
Shipments down 0.8% in Jan: stronger than expected, upward revision in
Dec – Handelsbanken
OTHER
Explainer:
Understanding fiscal multipliers – Mark Thoma
/ CBS
IMF Staff Decry
Income Equality in Report Backing Social Welfare – BB
According to the IMF research released today, income inequality shouldn’t
be ignored because it may result in low and unsustainable growth. “Non-extreme”
redistribution policies such as taxes and social programs make economic
expansions more durable, the economists wrote. “We find little evidence of a
‘big tradeoff’ between redistribution and growth,”
EMEA Weekly, Week 10 – Danske
Bank
FX Board for February
27: JPY head-fake? – TradingFloor
The USD tried to put
on a show of strength but ended the day rather mixed, while the JPY pushed
higher, only to reverse much of its gains later in the day. Elsewhere, SEK bears found encouragement.
FINNISH
Ruotsalaisprofessori: Suomella olisi
helpompaa euron ulkopuolella – TalSa
Suomella ja
samalla pohjoismaisella mallilla on edessään vaikea stressitesti,
ruotsalaisprofessori kirjoittaa Dagens Nyheterissä.
Katainen Kreikassa – Halla-aho: olisi hyvä,
että kolmannesta tukipaketista kerrottaisiin ennen vaaleja – Verkkouutiset
Teuvo Hakkarainen: Julkinen sektori räjähtää
kuin vedellä täytetty rupisammakko – Verkkouutiset
Kansanedustaja ihmettelee perussuomalaisten
halua irtisanoutua leikkauskirjasta – Verkkouutiset
Teollisuudessa ja kulutuksessa pientä valoa – Roger
Wessman
Onko Suomi jäämässä Euroalueen kelkasta? – Roger
Wessman
Hyviä lääkkeitä Suomen talouden ja
kestävyysvajeen hoitoon
– Sampo Terho