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Thursday, February 27

27th Feb - Ukraine, only CPI remains before ECB

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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How Real Is The Recovery In The Euro Area?iMFdirect
The recovery is real, but the pace is weak, and more policy actions are needed to boost growth and foster job creation.

Sticking a finger into the ECB’s airalphaville / FT
On the QE front, while BNP remain, if not optimistic, than resigned to it happening it is still hard to see how the barriers to it will be overcome. It’s not that it’s illegal, it’s that reaching a consensus on the practicalities of implementation seem more than difficult while at least a few ECB governors seem to share Karlsruhe’s concerns. Perchance ½ per cent y/y on inflation will do the trick…

Great Graphic: Are Europe's Inflation Expectations Anchored ?Marc to Market

Inflation preview - vulnerable to another downside surpriseNordea
We expect the Euro-area flash HICP inflation estimate (Friday 11:00 CET) to be 0.7% y/y. We see risks skewed to the downside to tomorrow’s number. However, with Germany out already, the risk of a number low enough to prompt ECB easing next week in itself is probably fairly low, especially because the German numbers were held down by falling energy prices.

The return of geopolitical risk The Economist
The new nations that form from the ashes of the old do not always have neat geographical boundaries, homogeneous populations or stable political leadership. Current geopolitical shifts are merely the aftemath of the great shocks of 1989 and 1990.

Ukraine: Emergency economic
The short- and long-term changes that are necessary to get the nation through this crisis and back on the track to stability.

What Investors Are Saying About Ukraine Now – WSJ
The Last Laugh in UkraineProject Syndicate
Statement by IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde on UkraineIMF
New Ukraine premier calls for help – FT
Recent history points to economic pain – FT

Monetary Developments in the Euro Area: Jan 2014 – ECB
European Private Lending Remains Stuck At Record Low Levels – ZH
Improvement in monetary development but still weak – Danske Bank
Euro zone lending contraction compounds ECB headache – Reuters

Business and Consumer Surveys – European Commission
European Sentiment Improves, Lending Doesn’t – WSJ
Euro confidence edges higher as German power outweighs French woe – TradingFloor
European sentiment beats consensus to improve in February – TradingFloor
Euro zone sentiment improves, inflation expectations fall – Reuters

Spanish economy trundles on in fourth quarter – Reuters
Spanish Economy Grew Less Than Estimated in Fourth Quarter – BB

Yellen: Too Soon to Tell How Much Weather Has Softened Data – WSJ
Fed’s Fisher Would Be Open to Accelerating Taper – WSJ

Durable goods orders mixed, jobless claims rise – Reuters
Durable goods orders ex-transportation rise in January – Reuters
Durable Goods Report: January Wasn’t As Bad As Expected – dshort
Shipments down 0.8% in Jan: stronger than expected, upward revision in Dec – Handelsbanken
Orders for Durable Goods in U.S. Decrease Less Than Forecast – BB

Explainer: Understanding fiscal multipliersMark Thoma / CBS

IMF Staff Decry Income Equality in Report Backing Social WelfareBB
According to the IMF research released today, income inequality shouldn’t be ignored because it may result in low and unsustainable growth. “Non-extreme” redistribution policies such as taxes and social programs make economic expansions more durable, the economists wrote. “We find little evidence of a ‘big tradeoff’ between redistribution and growth,”

EMEA Weekly, Week 10Danske Bank

FX Board for February 27: JPY head-fake?TradingFloor
The USD tried to put on a show of strength but ended the day rather mixed, while the JPY pushed higher, only to reverse much of its gains later in the day. Elsewhere, SEK bears found encouragement.

Ruotsalaisprofessori: Suomella olisi helpompaa euron ulkopuolellaTalSa
Suomella ja samalla pohjoismaisella mallilla on edessään vaikea stressitesti, ruotsalaisprofessori kirjoittaa Dagens Nyheterissä.

Katainen Kreikassa – Halla-aho: olisi hyvä, että kolmannesta tukipaketista kerrottaisiin ennen vaalejaVerkkouutiset

Teuvo Hakkarainen: Julkinen sektori räjähtää kuin vedellä täytetty rupisammakkoVerkkouutiset

Kansanedustaja ihmettelee perussuomalaisten halua irtisanoutua leikkauskirjastaVerkkouutiset

Teollisuudessa ja kulutuksessa pientä valoaRoger Wessman

Onko Suomi jäämässä Euroalueen kelkasta?Roger Wessman

Hyviä lääkkeitä Suomen talouden ja kestävyysvajeen hoitoonSampo Terho