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Sunday, February 23

23rd Feb - W/E: Linkfest




Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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EUROPE
Brussels blog round up 15 – 21 February – Europp / LSE
Ukraine’s historical context, Sarkozy comeback, and is political science still relevant?

Economic challenges and policy recommendations for the euro area OECD
From the “Better Policies” Series, February 2014.

The troika and financial assistance in the euro area, managing the exitsBruegel
This study provides a systematic evaluation of financial assistance for Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Cyprus. All four programmes, and in particular the Greek one, are very large financially compared to previous international programmes. Countries can make a clean exit from financial assistance, or enter a new programme or a precautionary programme, depending on the sustainability of their public debt and their vulnerability to shocks.

The troika and financial assistance in the euro area, managing the exitsYoutube
Bruegel scholars evaluate the Troika's financial assistance programmes in the eurozone. Director Guntram Wolff and Senior Fellows André Sapir and Zsolt Darvas answer how and when Greece, Portugal and Cyprus should exit their programmes.

European banks: between a rock (need of more capital) and a hard place (low profitability)voxeu.org
Marco Onado: Overall, the response of banks to the crisis has been minor. Currently, most banks remain highly leveraged, yet yielding low returns. Redressing this could require a reduction of non-core assets and/or a slashing of operating costs. Ultimately, something has to give. European banks have yet to reach a post-crisis equilibrium.

Poking the Eurozone BearProject Syndicate
Brigitte Granville: When confronted by a bear, the conventional wisdom is to lie motionless until it loses interest and leaves you alone; but there are distinctions among kinds of bears, with some more likely to respond to bold action. This scenario is helpful for thinking about the eurozone, as it confronts its next survival test.

Child Porn Investigation: Merkel Cabinet Rife with Suspicion and MistrustSpiegel
It is a disastrous start for Angela Merkel's new government: After details of a child pornography investigation were leaked, a cabinet member was forced to resign. Now, the chancellor's new cabinet is consumed by backbiting and mistrust.

ECB still ignoring the disinflationary trendSober Look
In isolation these disinflation signals may be fine, but on the whole the trends across multiple countries could spell trouble. This is especially important as China's economic growth slows, making it more difficult for the Eurozone to export its way into stronger growth

UNITED STATES
The Fed’s Wild and Woolly Year The Reformed Broker
Bloomberg Brief on the Fed in 2008 – has a a download link to the full piece, which won’t be available for long! (see also my Special: FED 2008 Transcripts)

Fed’s Lacker: Fed Emergency Actions Made Crisis WorseWSJ
Fed’s Fisher Continues to Support Tapering of Bond PurchasesWSJ

EMERGING
The Death of IMF Reform?The Diplomat
In rejecting crucial reforms to the IMF, Congress is jeopardizing U.S. global leadership.

Deutsche Bank Warns Of A 'Multi-Year Elongated' & Much Bigger EM Crisisefxnews

4 signs of economic slowdown in ChinaSober Look

Five charts to explain China’s shadow banking systemQuartz
…and how it could make a slowdown even uglier

OTHER
FX Board for February 21, 2014: Eye of the storm?TradingFloor
EURUSD volatility is at lows not seen for some time, while the JPY crosses have survived an assault on support, but can they prove themselves to the upside next week? Also, AUD is in focus after today’s weakening.

Global Macro Outlook 2014-2015: Growing PainsMoody’s
(free registration required)

Just 12 WTF Charts – ZH
The S&P has been going higher, against every other previously correlated time series.

Some Observations Supporting Risk-On in DMGlobal Macro Trading
The divergence between the US economy surprise index and treasury yields suggest that the market believes the recent string of weak data is temporary and weather driven.

OFF-TOPIC
Why Drug Lords and Criminals Are So Risk-AverseBB
Even international drug traffickers need investment advisers. That was Robert Mazur’s job when he went undercover for the U.S. government in the 1980s and ‘90s. Posing as a Mob-connected businessman, he helped the Medellin drug cartel launder and invest its suitcases full of cash.

Be a Google Ninja: Tips and Tricks for Online ResearchThe Reformed Broker

The Drone That Will Sail Itself Around the WorldWired
Jenkins and Owens are the engineering duo behind Saildrone, which in the words of their website is “a wind-powered autonomous surface vehicle.” On October 1, the 19-foot craft was set loose in the San Francisco Bay with a simple command lodged in its electronic brain: Sail to Hawaii.

Watch Die Hard and Other Classics in 60 Seconds FlatWired

A Holodeck Videogame Designed to Train SoldiersWired

Abandoned Paris Metro Stations, Reborn as Nightclubs and Public PoolsWired

Miller Music Tour Berlininthemix
Your guide to the world’s most exciting clubbing destinations

FINNISH
Kataisen/Urpilaisen hallitus kääntää saamattomuuttaan opposition syliinMTV3
Se ei sovi susillekaan, että hallitus rupeaa loppumetreillään heittämään savuverhoa ja panemaan oppositiota vastuuseen tekemisistään ja epäonnistumisistaan. Ensi tiistaina opposition ensimmäinen kysymys Kataiselle voisi kuulua vaikka näin: - Pidät sie minnuu tyhmänä, vai oot sie semmonen ite?

Euroopassa on aina leikitty valuuttaleikkiäJuhani Huopainen / US

"Vaadimme tukipakettipolitiikan lopettamista"Verkkouutiset
Pidämme kiinni itsenäisyydestä, itsemääräämisoikeudesta sekä vaadimme tukipakettipolitiikan lopettamista. Näin linjaa Timo Soini puolueensa asentoa toukokuisiin Euroopan parlamentinvaaleihin.

Tästä ei saisi vielä puhua – Kreikka-lainoja anteeksiJan Hurri / TalSa
Kreikka ei selviä omin voimin veloistaan, joten se tarvinnee lisää rahoitustukea ainakin vielä yhden "apupaketin" verran ja entisten tukiluottojensa armahduksia. Tämän tietävät myös europäättäjät – jotka eivät kuitenkaan halua puhua aiheesta. Eivät ennen eurovaaleja. Suomi kuuluu kustantajiin.

Sveitsille myös saksalaiset ovat nyt mamujaTalSa
Edes Saksan populistit eivät pysty varauksetta ilakoimaan Sveitsin maahanmuutto-kansanäänestyksen tuloksesta. Moni ala Sveitsissä toimii saksalaisten ammattilaisten varassa, ja päätös sulkee rajaa nyt heiltäkin.

Viisi vaiettua syytä, miksi Kiovan kaduilla palaaJan Hurri / TalSa
Ukraina oli ruutitynnyri jo ennen kuin Kiovan kaduilla leimahti, joten leimahduksesta puuttui enää kipinä. Syitä leimahdukseen oli ainakin kuusi, joista vain yksi kotoperäinen ja näkyvä. Loput viisi ovat näkymättömiä – ja ne koettelevat parhaillaan muitakin alijäämäisiä maita Aasiasta Latinalaiseen Amerikkaan. Kyse on maailman rahavirroista ja niiden äkkikäänteistä. Ennen Ukrainaankin virtasi helppoa rahaa, nyt leimuavat lieskat.

Kokoomuksen Orpo: Hallitus vakavissaan opposition kanssa talouskeskusteluunYLE
Hallitus lähtee tiistain neuvotteluihin opposition kanssa tosimielellä, kertoo kokoomuksen ryhmäpuheenjohtaja Petteri Orpo. Keskeistä on saada yhteisymmärrys velkojen taittamisesta, sopeutuksen määrästä ja jaksottamisaikataulusta. Ministerihalujaan Orpo ei paljasta.