Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
EUROPE
Brussels blog round
up 15 – 21 February – Europp
/ LSE
Ukraine’s historical context, Sarkozy comeback, and is political science
still relevant?
Economic challenges
and policy recommendations for the euro area – OECD
From the “Better Policies” Series, February 2014.
The troika and
financial assistance in the euro area, managing the exits – Bruegel
This study provides a systematic evaluation of financial assistance for
Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Cyprus. All four programmes, and in particular
the Greek one, are very large financially compared to previous international
programmes. Countries can make a
clean exit from financial assistance, or enter a new programme or a
precautionary programme, depending on the sustainability of their public debt
and their vulnerability to shocks.
The troika and
financial assistance in the euro area, managing the exits – Youtube
Bruegel scholars evaluate the Troika's financial assistance programmes
in the eurozone. Director Guntram Wolff and Senior Fellows André Sapir and
Zsolt Darvas answer how and when Greece, Portugal and Cyprus should exit their
programmes.
European banks:
between a rock (need of more capital) and a hard place (low profitability) – voxeu.org
Marco Onado: Overall, the response of banks to the crisis has been
minor. Currently, most banks remain highly leveraged, yet yielding low returns.
Redressing this could require a reduction of non-core assets and/or a slashing
of operating costs. Ultimately, something has to give. European banks have yet
to reach a post-crisis equilibrium.
Poking the Eurozone
Bear
– Project
Syndicate
Brigitte Granville: When confronted by a bear, the conventional wisdom
is to lie motionless until it loses interest and leaves you alone; but there
are distinctions among kinds of bears, with some more likely to respond to bold
action. This scenario is helpful for thinking about the eurozone, as it
confronts its next survival test.
Child Porn
Investigation: Merkel Cabinet Rife with Suspicion and Mistrust – Spiegel
It is a disastrous start for Angela Merkel's new government: After
details of a child pornography investigation were leaked, a cabinet member was
forced to resign. Now, the chancellor's new cabinet is consumed by backbiting
and mistrust.
ECB still ignoring
the disinflationary trend – Sober
Look
In isolation these disinflation signals may be fine, but on the whole
the trends across multiple countries could spell trouble. This is especially
important as China's economic growth
slows, making it more difficult for the Eurozone to export its way into
stronger growth
UNITED STATES
The Fed’s Wild and
Woolly Year – The
Reformed Broker
Bloomberg Brief on the Fed in 2008 – has a a download link to the full
piece, which won’t be available for long! (see also my Special:
FED 2008 Transcripts)
Fed’s Lacker: Fed
Emergency Actions Made Crisis Worse – WSJ
Fed’s Fisher
Continues to Support Tapering of Bond Purchases – WSJ
EMERGING
The Death of IMF
Reform? – The
Diplomat
In rejecting crucial reforms to the IMF,
Congress is jeopardizing U.S. global leadership.
Deutsche Bank Warns
Of A 'Multi-Year Elongated' & Much Bigger EM Crisis – efxnews
Five charts to
explain China’s shadow banking system – Quartz
…and how it could make a slowdown even uglier
OTHER
EURUSD volatility is
at lows not seen for some time, while the JPY crosses have survived an assault
on support, but can they prove themselves to the upside next week? Also, AUD is
in focus after today’s weakening.
Global Macro Outlook
2014-2015: Growing Pains – Moody’s
(free registration required)
Just 12 WTF Charts – ZH
The S&P has been going higher, against every other previously correlated
time series.
Some Observations
Supporting Risk-On in DM – Global
Macro Trading
The divergence between the US economy surprise index and treasury yields
suggest that the market believes the recent string of weak data is temporary
and weather driven.
OFF-TOPIC
Why Drug Lords and
Criminals Are So Risk-Averse – BB
Even international drug traffickers need investment advisers. That was
Robert Mazur’s job when he went undercover for the U.S. government in the
1980s and ‘90s. Posing as a Mob-connected businessman, he helped the Medellin drug cartel launder
and invest its suitcases full of cash.
Be a Google Ninja:
Tips and Tricks for Online Research – The
Reformed Broker
The Drone That Will
Sail Itself Around the World – Wired
Jenkins and Owens are the engineering duo behind Saildrone, which in the
words of their website is “a wind-powered autonomous surface vehicle.” On
October 1, the 19-foot craft was set loose in the San Francisco Bay with a simple
command lodged in its electronic brain: Sail to Hawaii.
Watch Die Hard and
Other Classics in 60 Seconds Flat – Wired
A Holodeck Videogame
Designed to Train Soldiers – Wired
Your guide to the world’s most exciting clubbing destinations
FINNISH
Kataisen/Urpilaisen hallitus kääntää
saamattomuuttaan opposition syliin – MTV3
Se ei sovi
susillekaan, että hallitus rupeaa loppumetreillään heittämään savuverhoa ja
panemaan oppositiota vastuuseen tekemisistään ja epäonnistumisistaan. Ensi
tiistaina opposition ensimmäinen kysymys Kataiselle voisi kuulua vaikka näin: -
Pidät sie minnuu tyhmänä, vai oot sie semmonen ite?
Euroopassa on aina leikitty valuuttaleikkiä – Juhani
Huopainen / US
"Vaadimme tukipakettipolitiikan
lopettamista" –
Verkkouutiset
Pidämme
kiinni itsenäisyydestä, itsemääräämisoikeudesta sekä vaadimme
tukipakettipolitiikan lopettamista. Näin linjaa Timo Soini puolueensa asentoa
toukokuisiin Euroopan parlamentinvaaleihin.
Tästä ei saisi vielä puhua – Kreikka-lainoja
anteeksi – Jan
Hurri / TalSa
Kreikka ei selviä omin voimin veloistaan,
joten se tarvinnee lisää rahoitustukea ainakin vielä yhden
"apupaketin" verran ja entisten tukiluottojensa armahduksia. Tämän
tietävät myös europäättäjät – jotka eivät kuitenkaan halua puhua aiheesta. Eivät
ennen eurovaaleja. Suomi kuuluu kustantajiin.
Sveitsille myös saksalaiset ovat nyt mamuja – TalSa
Edes Saksan populistit eivät pysty varauksetta
ilakoimaan Sveitsin maahanmuutto-kansanäänestyksen tuloksesta. Moni ala
Sveitsissä toimii saksalaisten ammattilaisten varassa, ja päätös sulkee rajaa
nyt heiltäkin.
Viisi vaiettua syytä, miksi Kiovan kaduilla
palaa – Jan
Hurri / TalSa
Ukraina oli
ruutitynnyri jo ennen kuin Kiovan kaduilla leimahti, joten leimahduksesta
puuttui enää kipinä. Syitä leimahdukseen oli ainakin kuusi, joista vain yksi
kotoperäinen ja näkyvä. Loput viisi ovat näkymättömiä – ja ne koettelevat
parhaillaan muitakin alijäämäisiä maita Aasiasta Latinalaiseen Amerikkaan. Kyse
on maailman rahavirroista ja niiden äkkikäänteistä. Ennen Ukrainaankin virtasi
helppoa rahaa, nyt leimuavat lieskat.
Kokoomuksen
Orpo: Hallitus vakavissaan opposition kanssa talouskeskusteluun – YLE
Hallitus
lähtee tiistain neuvotteluihin opposition kanssa tosimielellä, kertoo
kokoomuksen ryhmäpuheenjohtaja Petteri Orpo. Keskeistä on saada yhteisymmärrys
velkojen taittamisesta, sopeutuksen määrästä ja jaksottamisaikataulusta.
Ministerihalujaan Orpo ei paljasta.