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Wednesday, February 5

5th Feb - Special: January PMI

Overview of the January's Purchasing Manager Indices. (US added)

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Periphery business cycle monitorDanske Bank
Euro area periphery data continues its improvement and in line with that sovereign yields have move downwards even though spreads have widened a bit recently…We look for a continued gradual improvement. The return of confidence is expected to result in a slow recovery in domestic private sector demand this year.

Japan: Services activity growth eases in January

Russia: Private sector output falls in January

India: Private sector output falls for seventh month running, although marginally

Ireland: Further sharp rise in activity as export growth hits record high

South Africa: Fractional improvement of operating conditions recorded in January

Spain: Services activity increases at fastest pace in six-and-a-half years
The Spanish service sector backed up the solid performance seen in December with accelerated growth of activity in January, while we even saw an end to job shedding in the sector for the first time since the economic crisis began. Companies are still having to offer discounts in order to secure sales, but they are increasingly optimistic that 2014 can see a recovery get properly underway.

Italy: Downturn in service sector business activity slows at start of 2014

France: Slower fall in activity at service providers in January

Germany: Slowest rise in service activity for three months at the start of 2014
Germany’s private sector retained its solid growth momentum at the start of 2014, with activity expanding at the quickest pace since June 2011. A closer look at the data, however, shows that the latest improvement was largely driven by manufacturers, whereas services output growth eased to a three-month low.

New order growth in the service sector inched down to a near-stagnant pace in January, with anecdotal evidence suggesting that some clients hesitated to release their budgets on time. Nevertheless, companies felt confident about their business outlook, resulting in further job creation.

Eurozone: Economy expands at fastest pace since June 2011
The final reading of the eurozone PMI was down slightly on the earlier flash reading but nevertheless signals a very encouraging start to the year. Companies are reporting the strongest growth of business activity for two-and-a-half years, putting the economy on course to grow by 0.5% in the first quarter if this pace is sustained.

We should expect GDP forecasts for 2014 to start being revised up if the PMI continues to rise, with the consensus of 1.0% growth already looking somewhat conservative.

While Germany is providing the main impetus to the recovery due to its sheer size, the upturn is becoming broad-based, which in turns adds to the likelihood that it can be sustained. Spain and Ireland are now seeing robust growth, undergoing their strongest phases of expansion since 2007, while Italy is also returning to growth and France’s business sector is also showing signs of stabilising.

The main concern is that the recovery is still all-too dependent on the manufacturing sector. Although the service sector has returned to growth, its weak pace of expansion reflects still-subdued domestic demand – especially from consumers – in many Eurozone countries, notably France and Italy. A revival in consumer sentiment in these countries will be an important ingredient of a more robust upturn.

UK: Service sector growth slows in January, but remains elevated

US: Sharpest rise in U.S. service sector output for four months
Markit’s PMI surveys indicate that US business enjoyed a strong start to 2014. Despite disruptions caused by record low temperatures in parts of the country, business activity rose strongly again in both manufacturing and services. The full picture from the two surveys is one of growth weakening only very marginally in January despite the big freeze, setting the scene for another quarter of at least 3% growth.

The pace of hiring ticked down slightly, but remains resilient as firms report the brightest business outlook for three years. The January survey is signalled service sector payroll growth of around 180,000 on top of a 10,000 rise in manufacturing. We’d therefore expected to see monthly non-farm payroll growth revert back to around 200,000.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increases to 54.0 in January – Calculated Risk
U.S. services growth quickens in January: Markit – Reuters
Service Industries in U.S. Grew More Than Forecast in January – BB

ISM Services, Immune To Snow And Cold, Beat Expectations – ZH
ISM Non Manufacturing Index Surprises to the Upside – Bespoke
ISM Non-Manufacturing: Up a Percent – dshort