W/E: Weekly Support (updated)
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EUROPE
Berlin must broaden its outlook and applaud domestic
demand – also on Youtube
Keep
beholding the (German) Euroglut – FT
Europe’s huge excess savings combined with
aggressive ECB easing will lead to some of the largest capital outflows in the
history of financial markets… a rising German preference for non-Euro
denominated assets, particularly fixed income.
Likely
Unlikelies 2015: Euro area - phoenix rise – Nordea
Being
cautious about the outlook for the Euro-area economy in recent years usually
meant being right. Factors holding back growth still get more attention than
positive developments. Therefore, it could be that forecasters don’t recognize
an upswing because they haven’t seen one for so long…
5 elections
That Could Make the Unthinkable Happen in Europe – Econmatters
Ten
questions on the Eurozone, with ten answers – Yanis
Varoufakis
UNITED KINGDOM
Raise
Rates Soon to Keep Increases Gradual, Says BOE’s McCafferty – WSJ
INVESTMENT PLAN
The
Goldman touch – Coppola
Comment
Scheme has
two purposes: overtly, it is to increase investment across the EU - and
covertly, it is to circumvent the treaties that prevent the ECB from financing
sovereign investment.
The
lynchpin of the new European Commission’s economic strategy is its recently
unveiled plan to increase investment by €315 billion ($390 billion) over the
next three years. But the Commission’s proposal is misguided, both in terms of
its emphasis on investment and its proposed financing structure.
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Look, no
gilts: why ECB should ape BoE – FT
Setting up
an asset purchase facility is best way to implement QE
ECB:
December TLTRO: larger but not large enough – Nordea
We expect
the uptake in Thursday´s TLTRO to reach 120bn (vs consensus around 150bn),
larger than the September tranche of 83bn but again likely in the lower part of
the ECB´s range of expectations. Net, the uptake may not necessarily be much
larger than the first operation which enhances the probability of QE. Market
wise, opportunities persist and we continue to like Eonia flatteners and also
option-structures aimed at short rates remaining anchored or going even lower
on more ECB easing.
Bad News
for ECB Loans May Be Good News for QE-Seekers – BB
A repeat of
the lackluster demand seen in the first round could signal that the central
bank now has little choice but to step up its unconventional stimulus to
include buying government debt.
Britain is far from alone when it comes to
launching voter-friendly moves against immigration from other EU states. Berlin
has made plans to limit the stay of unemployed migrants from elsewhere in the
bloc, while Paris has promised to crack down on abuses of social security
benefits.
We
expect the ECB to announce government bond purchases in Q1 – Danske
Bank
Leaked
EU summit conclusions: Draghi left hanging? – FT
Draghi won’t
have the normal political cover he needs to make a bold decision early next
year… Does that mean Draghi can’t act? Hardly. But with opposition to QE rising
both within Germany and the ECB governing council, it
certainly makes it politically more difficult for the normally persuasive
Italian.
UNITED STATES
The Fed
and oil: 2014 is not 2011 in reverse – FT
Call the
tradeoff what you will, but the risks of an early rate rise still seem greater
than those of delay. Comparisons to 2011 don’t much alter the thinking behind
this conclusion.
ASIA
OTHER
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: Let’s Go Back to the Future in Fed Language Discussions * Fed Proposes
Extra Capital Requirement for 8 Biggest U.S. Banks * Global Economic News
Coverage Shows More Chatter About Easier Monetary Policy * ECB’s Hansson
Contradicts Other Officials on Quantitative Easing * Job Turnover Climbs While
Hiring Remains Near Fastest Pace Since 2007
Daily
Macro – WSJ
Global
markets are still jittery. The sharp gains seen in the yen Tuesday, when global
investors rushed to the Japanese currency as a safe-haven play, have on
Wednesday translated into the biggest loss in three weeks for Japan’s stock market. And in the
eurozone, nervousness persists over the Greek political situation
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Nordea
Morning – Nordea
Weak
Chinese inflation * Heightened political unrest in Greece
FI
Eye-Opener: Bloodbath in Greek markets - for the umpteenth time – Nordea
Core bonds
with more gains – German 10-year yield falls to record lows. Core yields likely
to edge higher today after yesterday’s falls. Greek bonds and equities hit
hard. Soft Chinese inflation data supporting equities. ECB overwhelmingly
supporting QE. US government shutdown averted once again. Light data calendar.
German and US supply.
US Open – ZH
China's Stock Market Whiplash Extends As Greece, Crude Slump More
From the
floor: Risk-off rules the day – TradingFloor
The shock
of Greece's election call continues to rile markets and sentiment has made a
firm swing into risk-off mode. Overnight, the Nikkei fell, the Shanghai
composite rose, yen crosses all corrected and oil price fears continue to weigh
on Norway's krone.
Three
Charts to Challenge 2015 Investment Strategies – ZH
This
Chart Shows Which Countries Get Mauled the Worst by the Oil Bust – Wolfstreet
Outrageous
Predictions for 2015 is out! – TradingFloor
"Our
biggest worry is the end of the liquidity cycle. The Fed is done. The reach for
yield that we have seen since 2009 is going into reverse”, said Bank of America.
2015
Outlook – Global Credit Conditions – Moody’s
The world’s
economies are adjusting to new positions in their historical growth cycles with
varying and sometimes counter-intuitive implications for the credit markets
(free registration required)
Mohamed
El-Erian: A Year of Divergence – Project
Syndicate
In the
coming year, “divergence” will be a major global economic theme, applying to
economic trends, policies, and performance. As the year progresses, these
divergences will become increasingly difficult to reconcile, leaving
policymakers with a choice: overcome the obstacles that have so far impeded
effective action, or risk allowing their economies to be destabilized.
Political
unrest is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon – also in Greece – Market
Monetarist
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Epävakaa Kreikka * Vieraskynä: Ruotsi suomettuu – miten käy
kruunun? * Kiinasta pehmeitä inflaatiolukuja
Korjausliike – Henri Myllyniemi
/ US
Eurokriisi kytee taas Kreikassa – Jan
Hurri / TalSa
Pääkirjoitus: Kaikki tepsivät keinot tekevät kipeää –
HS
OECD: Tuloerojen kasvu hidastaa "merkittävästi"
talouskasvua – TE
OECD kertoo, että tuloerojen kasvu on leikannut Suomen
talouskasvusta 9 prosenttiyksikköä 1980-luvun jälkeen, saman verran kuin
Norjassa ja Isossa-Britanniassa.
Raimo Sailas: Euroopan näivetystauti näyttää pitkittyvän
– HS
FK: Kriisirahastosta iso lasku suomalaisille pankeille
– Verkkouutiset
Veikkaus on erilainen asiattomin silmin – Asiaton
lehdistökatsaus
Ulkomaalaistaustaisten määrä ylitti 300 000 rajan – Tilastokeskus
Teollisuustuotanto lokak. -0,4% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Suomi: Teollisuuden tilaukset nousussa – Nordea
Metallialojen vaikutus teollisuustuotannon pudotukseen
suuri vuonna 2013 – Tilastokeskus
Teollisuuden uudet tilaukset lokak. +3,9% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Tehdyn työtunnin kustannus Q3 +0.8% – Tilastokeskus