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Wednesday, December 17

16th Dec - Russia's crazy day, Dec PMIs

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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EU Officials Weigh In on Greek Elections: Will It Backfire?WSJ
European officials have explicitly backed the current government of Prime Minister Antonis Samaras in Greece's latest political drama -- a break with traditional practice that risks backfiring.

Baltic economies in 2015-2016Danske Bank

BOE Sees Rising Eurozone Threat – WSJ
BOE Says Weaker Global Outlook May Threaten Financial Stability – BB
The UK banking system, stressed – FT

Lost decade in Finnish economy – Danske Bank
Swedish Finance Minister Says GDP Outlook May Need to Be Cut – BB
Sweden: Ingves on unconventional measures – Nordea

Riksbank leaves door openNordea
Today the Riksbank’s Executive Board was unanimous in leaving the repo rate unchanged at zero. In the wake of the plunge in oil prices the bank revised down its inflation forecast. As a result of this, the rate path was also lowered. But the bank did not use the heavy artillery although it emphasised its readiness to take action as early as February if required.

Russia Boosts Interest Rate From 10.5% To 17% - ZH
Citi, JPM: 17% Rate Hike Not Enough", GS: "Removes CBR Uncertainty" – ZH
Moscow’s Midnight Interest Rate Shocker: Reactions – WSJ
Russia's central bank needs to show them the money – TradingFloor
The research after the Russian hike before [updated] – FT

Russia - CBR hikes rates aggressively to curb RUB sell-off – Danske Bank
​Sorry, Putin. Russia’s economy is doomed – WaPo
Ruble jumps on Russia rate hike, oil pressured – Reuters
Ruble Struggles to Sustain Gains After Surprise Russia Rate Rise – BB
Russia’s ‘Massive’ Rate Rise Seen Halting Ruble Tumble – BB

The Bank of Russia sharply raised the key rate to protect its currency – Nordea
Russia Takes Well-Trodden Path in Interest-Rate Defense of Ruble – BB
Will Ruble's Rout Force Capital Controls? – BB
Russia Defends Ruble With Biggest Rate Rise Since 1998 – BB
What Putin’s inability to halt the rouble’s collapse says about him – FT

Russia's Black Tuesday – The Economist
Russian foreign liabilities in perspective – FT
Russia’s Economic Pain Is Just Beginning, Bank Group Warns – WSJ
Russia has just lost the economic war with the west – The Guardian
Checkmate, Putin: Russia’s economy is stuck in a catch-22 – WaPo

The Ruble and the Textbooks – Krugman / NYT
Why the Russian economy is melting down – VOX
U.S. Won’t Ease Sanctions to Stem Russia’s Economic Crisis – BB
Russia Seen Spending Further $70 Billion to Fight Ruble Rout – BB

Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann steps up criticism of QEFT

Fed Seen Looking Past Low Inflation to Drop ‘Considerable Time’BB
The Federal Reserve will look past low inflation and drop a pledge to keep interest rates near zero for a “considerable time” as it seeks an exit from the loosest monetary policy in its 100-year history, economists said.

Fed Seen Looking Past Russia Crisis as U.S. Growth Picks Up BB

5 Things to Watch at the December Fed MeetingWSJ

Fed Unlikely to React Aggressively to Russia TurmoilWSJ

Daily Central BanksWSJ
How Oil’s Plunge Could Become a Financial Stability Worry for Fed * Five Things to Watch at the Fed Meeting * Russia Central Bank Raises Key Rate to 17% * ECB’s Weidmann Says He Views Idea Of ECB Govt Bond Buys ‘Skeptically’ * Bank of England Stress Test Gives U.K. Major Banks Clean Bill of Health

Daily MacroWSJ
The general view is that the Fed will stay focused on the constant signs of improvement in the U.S. economy and so remove language indicating that it will wait for a “considerable time” before raising rates. But the global situation puts it in a bind.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Nordea Morning – Nordea

FI Eye-Opener: Winter woesNordea
German yields fail to rebound – US yields manage to climb. Bonds to remain supported. Oil slide continues, pushing inflation expectations ever lower. European equities record heavy losses. China’s manufacturing sector still losing momentum. Russia hikes rates aggressively – the rouble to face more pressure. US capacity utilization continues to climb. PMIs with some upside potential but does it matter?

Dollar's Downside Correction Continues, though no Rouble ReprieveMarc to Market

Turmoil Spreads: Ruble Replunges, Crude Craters, Yen Surges, Emerging Markets Tumbling

From the floorTradingFloor
Oil price falls mean the collapse in the ruble has intensified, with Russia's central bank making a drastic interest rate move overnight, raising its key rate from 10.5% to 17% – and it doesn't look like a bottom is in sight for the beleaguered currency.

Japan: Operating conditions continue to improve in December – Markit

China: Operating conditions deteriorate for the first time since May – Markit
China PMI declines more than expected, no signs of impact from interest rate cut – Danske Bank
China: PMI points to an ugly Q4 – Nordea
China Manufacturing PMI Drops Back Into Triple-Dip Contraction, Lowest In 7 Months – ZH
China industrial activity shrinks in December, calls grow for more stimulus – Reuters
China’s Factory Gauge Declines as Stimulus Case Builds – BB

France:  private sector output falls at slowest rate in four months – Markit
Germany: private sector activity growth weakest in 18 months – Markit
German Economy at Risk of Downturn as Growth Seen Weak at Best – BB
EZ PMI signals slight gain in momentum at year-end – Markit
Higher euro PMIs and German ZEW expectations – Danske Bank
Euro area: Slow growth, but confidence returning – Nordea

U.S. manufacturing output growth slows again in December – Markit
US Manufacturing PMI Plunges To 11 Month Lows, Misses By Most On Record – ZH

FX Forecast Update: 'It's the oil, stupid'Danske Bank

EM FX: Another one bites the dustNordea
The RUB has taken centre stage with new record highs, extreme intraday volatility and emergency rate hikes. Other EM currencies such as BRL, MXN and ZAR are also suffering from the drop in commodity prices, and we revised our forecasts for all three. We remain cautious on EM FX in general, though some of the moves, especially in RUB, look overdone.

Great Graphic: Major Currencies on Trade-Weighted BasisMarc to Market

Winners and losers of oil price plungeFT
Inflation and strong dollar could curb global economic impact

Euro: Window Of Upside?BCA
Our FX strategists see asymmetric risks to the euro over the next 1-3 months.

Why Are Commodity Prices Falling?Project Syndicate

FX Board: Was that the bottom?TradingFloor

Venäjän keskuspankki nostaa kun ei muuta voi | Norjan keskuspankki leikkaa vielä kaksi kertaa | Kiinan teollisuuden PMI jäi odotuksista

Talousennusteiden kauheuskilpailu jatkuuTaloutta ja Historiaa

Alexander Stubb: Konsensuspolitiikka uhkaa halvaannuttaa SuomenVerkkouutiset

Tarkastusvirasto: Toimet kestävyysvajeen umpeen kuromiseksi riittämättömiäVerkkouutiset

Korkeasti koulutettujen työttömyys lisääntyi noin 30 prosenttia vuodesta 2012 – Tilastokeskus
Kansantalouden tuotanto laski lokakuussa 2014 – Tilastokeskus