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EUROPE
The EU
Summit starts today. There are three important issues: Russia, Juncker's investment scheme, and Greece.
German
Business Confidence Rises With Growth Signs – BB
December Ifo
Business Climate Index Continues to Rise – CESifo
Germany: Expectations up – Nordea
SWISS GO NEGATIVE
Swiss franc
hits two-year low as SNB cuts rates to negative – Reuters
Swiss
central bank moves to negative deposit rate – FT
Swiss
National Bank Starts Negative Interest Rate of 0.25% to Stave Off Inflows – BB
First
words, now negative interest rates – Nordea
Switzerland’s Big Banks Closely Eye Negative
Rate Move – WSJ
RUSSIA & PUTIN’S SPEECH
Live blog:
Vladimir Putin’s annual press conference – FT
Vladimir
Putin Seeks to Calm Fears. Strategists React – WSJ
Putin says
central bank, government taking adequate measures – Reuters
Putin’s
News Conference – At A Glance – WSJ
Putin holds
the line – TradingFloor
El-Erian: Putin’s
limited options to halt the crisis – FT
Rouble
crisis opens up Vladimir Putin to attack – FT
Russian
interbank lending rate soars to 9-year high – FT
Notes on
Russian Debt – Krugman
/ NYT
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB to
publish accounts of monetary policy discussions from January – ECB
European
Central Bank to publish minutes of meetings – FT
Draghi
Counts Cost of Outflanking ECB’s Home Nation in QE – BB
As Mario
Draghi prepares to push the European Central Bank into quantitative easing,
he’s counting the cost of alienating its home nation.
UNITED STATES
FEDERAL RESERVE
FOMC
meeting: It all depends on the data – Danske
Bank
Quick FOMC
Recap – Tim
Duy
The Fed
will be ‘patient,’ but will that be patient enough? – WaPo
Comments on
Fed Chair Yellen's Press Conference – Calculated
Risk
Yellen
Makes It Clear That Fed’s Patience on Rates Has Limits – BB
Fed signals
tightening by mid-2015 – FT
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Yellen
Playbook Puts Slack Over Oil Price Declines * Fed Sets Stage for Rate Hikes
Next Year * ECB’s Coeuré Sends Strong Signal on Asset Purchases * Swiss Central
Bank Introduces Negative Interest Rates * Russian President Vladimir Putin
Seeks to Reassure on Economy
Daily
Macro – WSJ
Fed made it
clear that conditions within the U.S. economy were sufficient for it to
take a “patient” approach to process of normalizing policy (i.e. raising rates)…ECB
official suggesting that more stimulus is to come during an interview earlier,
alongside the Swiss National Bank vowing to set negative interest rates and oil
markets stabilizing, the broad mix of policy maker action is clearly making
investors in global markets happy Thursday
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
FI
Eye-Opener: Where to go from here? – Nordea
German
yields revisit lows – US yields jump. German yields to head higher early today,
but bigger losses should be avoided. Rouble with strong gains on the back of
more support measures. S&P 500 has the best day of the year. Chinese
property prices fall further. Fed changes guidance – revises rate forecasts
lower. Any German bonds left for investors? ECB easing expectations cemented
further. Greek drama continuing. German Ifo, Philly Fed index and EU Summit
ahead. Spanish and US issuance.
SNB
Surprises, but Fed Stays Course – Marc
to Market
FX
Update – TradingFloor
SNB puts
punitive rates on large sight deposits. The FOMC monetary policy statement was
as cautiously “less dovish” as it could manage, but the Yellen press conference
was more hawkish and supported a strong USD rally as expectations were very low
going into the meeting. BoJ meeting up tonight.
FX Board:
Countdown to USDCHF parity – TradingFloor
Daily
Shot – TradingFloor
US Open – ZH
Futures Soar
On Swiss NIRP Stunner, "Considerably Patient" Fed
From the
floor – TradingFloor
It has been
a volatile week and yesterday was no exception as relatively hawkish press
remarks from Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen were followed by a surprise
negative rate launch from the Swiss National Bank. The monetary policy moves
were matched by rebounds in oil, the ruble and the energy sector, where Saxo
Bank head of equities Peter Garnry has initiated a tactical long on energy
stocks.
OTHER
The new
oil order – Nordea
Oil prices
have continued to drop sharply in November and December and we have therefore
decided to revise our oil price forecast for 2015 and 2016. We now foresee oil
prices at USD 62/barrel in 2015 and USD 75/barrel in 2016. OPEC’s surprising
change of strategy, formidable growth in US shale oil (tight oil) and Russia
now producing at record highs since the breakup of the Soviet Union have set a
new oil order.
A tale
of two central banks
– TradingFloor
The
divergent monetary policy paths of the FOMC and ECB will become very stark
early in 2015. The FOMC will be patient, while the ECB will do more to achieve
its inflation target. Meanwhile the FOMC and the market disagree on inflation
expectations.
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Fedin kärsivällisyys tarkoittaa koronnostoa kesällä |
Ison-Britannian palkkakehitys odotettua voimakkaampaa | EKP:n Coeuré kyyhkymäisenä
Handelsbanken varoittaa: Suomi on vaarallisessa
kierteessä – Verkkouutiset
Puuttuvan kriisitietoisuuden ongelma – Roger
Wessman
Kreikkalainen pokeri – pysyvä siirtyminen avustettavaksi
tai potkaiseminen eurosta ulos – Tyhmyri
Kokoomuksen alho syvenee – demarit painelivat ohi – HS
Keskustan ero kokoomukseen ja Sdp:hen lähestyy kymmentä prosenttiyksikköä
Soini perussuomalaisten kannatuksen laskusta: "Taakka
on minulla" – HS
Neuvoton Stubb - Kuinka ammut omaan jalkaasi – MTV