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Thursday, December 18

18th Dec - Putin's speech more of the same

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Europe Summit: Light but Little IlluminationMarc to Market
The EU Summit starts today. There are three important issues: Russia, Juncker's investment scheme, and Greece.

German Business Confidence Rises With Growth Signs – BB
December Ifo Business Climate Index Continues to Rise – CESifo
Germany: Expectations up – Nordea

Swiss franc hits two-year low as SNB cuts rates to negative – Reuters
Swiss central bank moves to negative deposit rate – FT
Swiss National Bank Starts Negative Interest Rate of 0.25% to Stave Off Inflows – BB
Why Has Switzerland Switched Rates to Negative? – WSJ
First words, now negative interest rates – Nordea
Switzerland’s Big Banks Closely Eye Negative Rate Move – WSJ

Live blog: Vladimir Putin’s annual press conference – FT
Vladimir Putin Seeks to Calm Fears. Strategists React – WSJ
Putin says central bank, government taking adequate measures – Reuters
Putin says Russia economy will be cured but offers no remedy – Reuters
Putin Strikes Uncompromising Tone Over Crisis Hitting RussiaBB
Putin’s News Conference – At A Glance – WSJ
Putin holds the line – TradingFloor

EU bans investment in Crimea, targets oil sector, cruises – Reuters
El-Erian: Putin’s limited options to halt the crisis – FT
Aslund: The only cure for what plagues RussiaFT
Rouble crisis opens up Vladimir Putin to attack – FT
Russian interbank lending rate soars to 9-year high – FT
Notes on Russian Debt – Krugman / NYT

ECB to publish accounts of monetary policy discussions from JanuaryECB
European Central Bank to publish minutes of meetingsFT

Draghi Counts Cost of Outflanking ECB’s Home Nation in QEBB
As Mario Draghi prepares to push the European Central Bank into quantitative easing, he’s counting the cost of alienating its home nation.

FOMC meeting: It all depends on the data – Danske Bank
Quick FOMC Recap – Tim Duy
The Fed will be ‘patient,’ but will that be patient enough? – WaPo
Comments on Fed Chair Yellen's Press Conference – Calculated Risk
Yellen Makes It Clear That Fed’s Patience on Rates Has Limits – BB
Fed signals tightening by mid-2015 – FT

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Yellen Playbook Puts Slack Over Oil Price Declines * Fed Sets Stage for Rate Hikes Next Year * ECB’s Coeuré Sends Strong Signal on Asset Purchases * Swiss Central Bank Introduces Negative Interest Rates * Russian President Vladimir Putin Seeks to Reassure on Economy

Daily MacroWSJ
Fed made it clear that conditions within the U.S. economy were sufficient for it to take a “patient” approach to process of normalizing policy (i.e. raising rates)…ECB official suggesting that more stimulus is to come during an interview earlier, alongside the Swiss National Bank vowing to set negative interest rates and oil markets stabilizing, the broad mix of policy maker action is clearly making investors in global markets happy Thursday

Danske DailyDanske Bank

FI Eye-Opener: Where to go from here?Nordea
German yields revisit lows – US yields jump. German yields to head higher early today, but bigger losses should be avoided. Rouble with strong gains on the back of more support measures. S&P 500 has the best day of the year. Chinese property prices fall further. Fed changes guidance – revises rate forecasts lower. Any German bonds left for investors? ECB easing expectations cemented further. Greek drama continuing. German Ifo, Philly Fed index and EU Summit ahead. Spanish and US issuance.

SNB Surprises, but Fed Stays CourseMarc to Market

FX Update TradingFloor
SNB puts punitive rates on large sight deposits. The FOMC monetary policy statement was as cautiously “less dovish” as it could manage, but the Yellen press conference was more hawkish and supported a strong USD rally as expectations were very low going into the meeting. BoJ meeting up tonight.

FX Board: Countdown to USDCHF parityTradingFloor

Daily ShotTradingFloor

Futures Soar On Swiss NIRP Stunner, "Considerably Patient" Fed

From the floorTradingFloor
It has been a volatile week and yesterday was no exception as relatively hawkish press remarks from Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen were followed by a surprise negative rate launch from the Swiss National Bank. The monetary policy moves were matched by rebounds in oil, the ruble and the energy sector, where Saxo Bank head of equities Peter Garnry has initiated a tactical long on energy stocks.

No Sign Yet of Labor Cost Inflation in U.S. or U.K.WSJ

The new oil orderNordea
Oil prices have continued to drop sharply in November and December and we have therefore decided to revise our oil price forecast for 2015 and 2016. We now foresee oil prices at USD 62/barrel in 2015 and USD 75/barrel in 2016. OPEC’s surprising change of strategy, formidable growth in US shale oil (tight oil) and Russia now producing at record highs since the breakup of the Soviet Union have set a new oil order.

A tale of two central banksTradingFloor
The divergent monetary policy paths of the FOMC and ECB will become very stark early in 2015. The FOMC will be patient, while the ECB will do more to achieve its inflation target. Meanwhile the FOMC and the market disagree on inflation expectations.

Fedin kärsivällisyys tarkoittaa koronnostoa kesällä | Ison-Britannian palkkakehitys odotettua voimakkaampaa | EKP:n Coeuré kyyhkymäisenä

Handelsbanken varoittaa: Suomi on vaarallisessa kierteessäVerkkouutiset

Puuttuvan kriisitietoisuuden ongelmaRoger Wessman

Kreikkalainen pokeri – pysyvä siirtyminen avustettavaksi tai potkaiseminen eurosta ulosTyhmyri

Kokoomuksen alho syvenee – demarit painelivat ohiHS
Keskustan ero kokoomukseen ja Sdp:hen lähestyy kymmentä prosenttiyksikköä

Soini perussuomalaisten kannatuksen laskusta: "Taakka on minulla"HS

Neuvoton Stubb - Kuinka ammut omaan jalkaasiMTV