W/E: Weekly Support (updated)
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EUROPE
François
Hollande’s Tartuffe Syndrome – Project
Syndicate
In his
classic comedy, Molière shows that allowing pride, rather than reason, to
dictate one’s actions invariably ends badly. French President François Hollande
appears to have an advanced case of Tartuffe’s malady, repeatedly making
political pledges that he cannot honor.
The Sweden
Democrats decided to vote for the opposition’s budget proposal in the Swedish
parliament (Riksdag). This means that the government’s budget bill will not
pass the Riksdag at the voting planned for Wednesday 3 Dec. (see earlier “what if”)
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
EUR
inflation: Falling off a cliff – Nordea
The EUR
inflation market is panicking right now, and the 1Y inflation swap is printing
below zero for the first time since the immediate Lehman aftermath. With
nominal rates anchored, this is implicit tightening as real rates are soaring.
This puts immense pressure on the ECB and with Govie-QE unlikely for Thursday,
and the recent moves almost too much to ignore, lesser action is very much in
play right now.
Why is
euro inflation so low? – VoxEU.org
Eurozone
inflation has been persistently declining for almost a year, and constantly
undershooting forecasts. Building on existing research, this column explores
the conjecture that low inflation in the Eurozone results from an excess demand
for safe assets. If true, this conjecture would have definite policy
implications. Getting out of such a ‘safety trap’ would necessitate fiscal or
non-conventional monetary policies tailored to temporarily take risk away from
private balance sheets.
Investors
see euro zone deflation in one year – Reuters
The ECB
must show leadership to fight threat of deflation – FT
Dovish
ECB waits for the December TLTRO – Danske
Bank
The
German euro is overvalued – Angry
Bear
UNITED STATES
The 2015
economic outlook and the implications for monetary policy – BIS
Remarks by
Mr William C Dudley, President and CEO of the NY FED
Could
unexpectedly low levels of Treasury yields, pushed down by monetary policy in Europe and Japan, lead the Fed to raise interest
rates earlier and faster than it otherwise would?
OTHER
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Derby’s Take: Dudley Explains How Markets Will Influence Fed Rate Rises * Bernanke Ordered
Probe of Possible Fed Leak * India’s RBI Leaves Rates Unchanged and
Continues to Monitor Inflation * Australia Keeps Interest Rates on Hold * OECD
Says Global Inflation Continues to Ease
Daily
Macro: Good or Bad Deflation? – WSJ
Disinflationary
forces in the global economy are alive and well. The question is whether they
are having a positive influence by putting money into the hands of consumers
and businesses or whether falling prices are feeding into a more entrenched,
pernicious form of deflation, the kind that has afflicted Japan for two decades.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Nordea
Morning – Nordea
Nordea to
present Economic Outlook * Lower oil prices good news for global economy
FI
Eye-Opener: Unanchored inflation expectations – Nordea
Core yields
finally jump – yields with more upside left today. Oil prices rebound.
Euro-area inflation expectations still falling like a rock. Equities under
pressure. ECB covered bond purchases jump. US ISM giving an overly rosy picture.
Euro-area outlook still clouded. Euro-area PPI and Fed speeches ahead
The
Dollar Comes Back Bid
– Marc
to Market
FX Board:
Baiting USD bulls ahead of key event risks – TradingFloor
The USD was
strong across the board today, with new cycle highs in USDJPY above 119.00 and
EURUSD toying with local support. The post-RBA squeeze was quickly reversed and
is keeping the bears content for now. But key event risks await for the balance
of the week.
US Open – ZH
Stocks
Rebound, Oil Resumes Slide, Ruble Tumbles As Yen Flirts With 119
Daily
Shot: Disinflation row – TradingFloor
From the
floor – TradingFloor
US energy
stocks are extremely negative * Deepwater drillers particularly hard-hit * Phenomenal
precious metals rally rise * Ruble hits new low
Economic
Outlook Dec 2014 – Nordea
OECD
warns big companies at centre of global corruption – FT
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
OPECilla peiliin katsomisen paikka | Ison-Britannian
teollisuuden PMI ylitti odotukset | USA:n teollisuuden ISM-indeksi ennakoitua
vahvempi
Navigaattori: Tuhon tiellä – Nordea
Pitkä taantumajakso näkyy rajulla tavalla Suomen talouden
keskeisissä tunnusluvuissa. Kansantulo (netto), joka huomioi sekä pääoman
kulumisen että velkaantumisen ulkomaille, on vuoden 2007 jälkeen supistunut
reaalisesti noin kymmenyksen. Samaan aikaan väestö on lisääntynyt. Asukasta
kohti laskettu reaalinen kansantulo on pudonnut seitsemässä vuodessa lähes 13 prosenttia.
Koko kansantalous syö ensimmäistä kertaa kahteen vuosikymmeneen enemmän kuin
tienaa.
Talousnäkymien päivitys: Väsynyt odottamaan – Nordea
Öljyn hinnan yllättävän suuri lasku tukee maailmantalouden
elpymistä. Hinta on laskenut jo kolmanneksen viime kesästä alle 70 dollariin. Halvempi
öljy tukee Euroopankin kasvua, mutta samalla lisää deflaatiovaaraa. Koska
inflaatio-odotuksetkin ovat olleet laskussa, Euroopan keskuspankki päättää uudesta
elvytyspaketista joulukuussa ja vielä toisesta uudesta paketista maaliskuuhun
mennessä. (video ja
kalvosulkeiset)
EU:n investointipaketti: Vähemmän tukia, enemmän
takauksia ja luottoja – YLE
Euroopan investointipankin pääjohtajan Werner Hoyerin
mielestä Suomi kykenee itse hankkimaan markkinoilta rahaa komission
investointiohjelmaan ehdottamiinsa hankkeisiin. Suomen hakemukset luvataan silti tutkia.
Euroopan johto tähtää hikipajaunioniin – Riikka
Söyring / US
Pääministeri Stubb haki talousneuvoja Ruotsista – ja sai
niitä – Henri
Myllyniemi / US
Presidentti Niinistö, velka ja hyvinvointi – mukavampi
jos Niinistö ei ottaisi kantaa talouteen – Tyhmyri
Onko ruotsalainen oikeassa? – Professorin
ajatuksia
Öljyn pienenevä merkitys maailmantaloudelle – Roger
Wessman