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Monday, December 15

15th Dec - Sell-off about to end? Fed ahead

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Samaras summons bond vigilantes with euro exit talkekathimerini

Riksbanken döljer att internationella studier motsäger dess påstående om skuldernaEkonomistas

Greece Is Not Headed for the Door Just YetNYT

Draghi’s QE Battle Almost Won as Economists See ActionBB
More than 90 percent of respondents in Bloomberg’s monthly survey predict the European Central Bank will begin large-scale buying of government bonds next year, up from 57 percent last month.

Oil price collapse dooms Eurozone to deflationTradingFloor
The odds are the Eurozone will slip into deflation in 2015, a victim of this year’s oil price collapse. No amount of quantitative easing can change that outcome - the horse has already bolted.

ECB May Have to Buy Sovereign Bonds, Nowotny SaysWSJ

Senate passes spending bill, ends government shutdown threatReuters

Congress Sends Obama Measure Pushing for More Russia SanctionsBB

FOMC PreviewCalculated Risk

More Questions for YellenTim Duy’s Fed Watch

FOMC Preview: Moving closer to the first rate hikeDanske Bank

Fedspeak Cheatsheet: What Are Fed Policy Makers Saying?WSJ

Will the Fed drop ‘considerable time’ when it meets this week?WaPo

Abe coalition secures big Japan election win with record low turnoutReuters
Prime Minister, brushing aside suggestions that a low turnout tarnished his coalition's election win, vowed on Monday to stick to his reflationary economic policies, tackle painful structural reforms and pursue his muscular security stance.

Japan: Low turnout reveals doubt on AbenomicsNordea
Abenomics has gotten four more years, just as expected. Record low turnout highly likely reflects voters’ doubt on Premier Abe and his economic policies that promised to revive Japan’s economy. The expected outcome had little impacts on the financial markets for now, but in the longer term, eyes are still fixed upon whether Abe is bold enough to implement much-needed but unpopular reforms.

Unlocking Japan Growth Potential Looms as Task for Abenomics 2.0BB
Abe’s election win strengthened his hand to move beyond the fiscal and monetary stimulus that brought an end to deflation in his first two years. The tougher task for Abenomics 2.0 will be to boost Japan’s growth potential.

BOJ survey shows Japan business mood fragile, highlights Abe's challengesReuters
Japan PM Abe: to ask companies to raise wages next yearReuters

China will Adjust Monetary Policy ShortlyMarc to Market

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: What is Going Down With Inflation Expectations? * Fed Likely to Stare Down Oil-Price Drop * Fed’s Kocherlakota Will Step Down in 2016 * For Japan’s Shinzo Abe, Now Comes the Hard Part  * China Growth Could Slow to 7.1%, PBOC Researchers Say

Daily MacroWSJ
Global markets are now in a very jittery state. This puts enormous pressure on the Federal Reserve, whose meeting Tuesday and Wednesday has become even more important. Notwithstanding a bounce provoked by Middle East conflict Monday, oil prices continue to slide as OPEC’s leaders show new willingness to cut production.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Nordea MorningNordea
US Senate passes budget * Swedish business sector production weak

FI Eye-Opener: Big moves, big weekNordea
German yields hit new lows – US Treasuries with an even bigger rally. Bond market momentum remains strong. Oil prices and inflation expectations still falling. Equity prices tumble. Abe gets another shot at reforms. French downgrade old news. US consumer confidence jumps. Big repayment illustrates the slow rise in excess liquidity. Fed meeting, Euro-area PMIs and Greek presidential elections. Issuance calendar looking light already.

Dollar and Equities Find Firmer FootingMarc to Market

Futures Rebound, Crude "Flash Smashes" Higher As Dollar Strengthens

Daily ShotTradingFloor
Eurozone QE appears increasingly likely * Investors flee Greek markets on political fears * US import prices fall 1.5% for October

Likely Unlikelies 2015: Commodities – erase and rewindNordea
As energy prices have collapsed this year, much has been written about the risks of continuation of the trend extrapolating developments into 2015. What if…it doesn’t?

FX, etc.: Famous last wordsNordea
A helicopter view, 2014 and 2015. Is the turning point near? 2008 is a roadmap in terms of price action...but fundamentals better now.

Oil Trades Near 5-Year Low as OPEC Seen Resisting CutsBB

It may be time to start building pro-risk positionsGlobal Macro Trading

Time to leave the German Bund partyFT
Balance of risk and reward has shifted as expectations rise of ECB QE

1998 Comes Calling in Currency and Credit Plunges From Russia to VenezuelaBB
Emerging-Market Stocks Fall to 10-Month Low as Currencies Plunge BB

Fedin kokouksessa syynätään sanoja | Abelle vaalivoitto Japanissa | USA:n kuluttajien luottamus ylitti odotukset

Koneet kuluvat loppuun Jorma Pöysä / KL

EKP:n pressi 12/14Harhala

Vasemmisto heräilee rikkomaan tavaroita – Olli Herrala / KL

Q3 Vaihtotase lievästi ylijäämäinen, tavaratuonti laskussa – Tilastokeskus
Q3 Teollisuuden liikevaihto supistui reilun prosentin YoY – Tilastokeskus
Q3 Palvelujen liikevaihto +4,1 prosenttia YoY – Tilastokeskus
Q3 Rakennusyritysten liikevaihto kasvoi 0,7% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Rakennuskustannukset nousivat marraskuussa 1,2% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Koko kaupan myynti laski lokakuussa 0,5 prosenttia vuodentakaisesta – Tilastokeskus
Inflaatio pysyi marraskuussa 1,0 prosentissa – Tilastokeskus