W/E: Weekly Support (updated)
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EUROPE
Greek
hopes of waving goodbye to bailout appear to be dashed – FT
Sweden’s
political instability is a warning to the rest of Europe – FT
Populists
are disrupting the traditional electoral arithmetic
European
headwinds: ECB policy and Fed normalisation – VoxEU.org
In the face
of the zero lower bound, the ECB’s reduced its balance sheet by a third. This
column introduces a new CEPR Policy Insight by former central bank governor
Athanasios Orphanides that argues that the outcome has been economic stagnation
and a harmful disinflation. It explores alternative explanations for this
policy, including the role of politics in managing the Eurozone crisis and
proposes balance-sheet policy that help fulfil of the ECB’s mandate in the face
of Fed’s tightening.
Putin Says
Crimea Sacred, Attacks U.S., EU Over Ukraine – BB
Putin’s New
Crimea-as-Jerusalem Myth Baffles Russian Historians – BB
Putin Seen
Grasping at Straws as Economic Cures Fail to Impress – BB
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
German
ECB policymakers opposed new balance sheet language –sources – Reuters
Jens
Weidmann and Sabine Lautenschlaeger opposed ECB decision to firm up language on
the expansion of the bank's balance sheet, central bank sources said
"Draghi
Loses The Majority" Blasts A Triumphant German Press – ZH
ECB
Mutiny Sparks Late-Day Selling Scramble As QE Hopes Fade – ZH
Bear
trap catches EURUSD shorts – TradingFloor
The ECB is
taking a wait and see approach, but QE is still on its agenda * It has lowered
its baseline GDP growth and headline inflation forecasts * The ECB's
“alternative paths" are more interesting than its baseline forecasts
The last
but two – Macro Man
[video] Draghi's
tactical retreat ahead of QE – FT
Recap
2014-12-04 – Global
Macro Trading
ECB
paralyzed by split as irreversible deflation trap draws closer – The
Telegraph
'It is now
patently clear that Draghi lacks the crucial German support for launching
full-blown QE'
Likely
Unlikelies 2015: Euro Area inflation fails to accelerate – Nordea
The ECB is
currently fighting to ensure confidence in its inflation target. We expect QE
to be launched in Q1, and for inflation and growth to accelerate. But what if a
substantial recovery remains elusive? How would the ECB and markets react in
such a depressing scenario?
Eyes on
Weidmann for Draghi pushback – Reuters
The ECB
winter of discontent
– Bruegel
The last
meeting of the governing council ended with no action and a controversial twist
in the language
ECB to
reassess policy stance in early-2015 – Markit
ECB keeps
policy on hold, waiting until early next year to reassess * Growth and
inflation forecasts revised lower
ECB
meeting: All talk and no action – TradingFloor
The ECB
announced nothing new, and resorted to altering a word or two while trying to
make everyone believe that the change was significant. The real show was the backstabbing
that followed. The internal quarrelling and disagreement is taking away the
ECB’s last shreds of respectability and reliability.
ECB
Chief Builds Support for Stimulus as Central Bank Plays It Cool for a While – BB
Mario
Draghi has seven weeks to build consensus among policy makers on a stimulus
package following a fractious end to 2014.
ECB
division on wording fails to impress – FT
Markets
expect much from next ECB meeting. If Mr Draghi does not deliver, fall-out will
be painful
MACRO NUMBERS
Euro-Area
Growth Held Back by Investment Decline – BB
German
factory orders jump in October – TradingFloor
Bundesbank
Cuts Outlook Even as Factory Orders Jump – BB
Bundesbank
cuts German growth forecast – FT
GDP up by
0.2% in the euro area and up by 0.3% in the EU28 – Eurostat
UNITED STATES
Optimal-Control
Monetary Policy in the FRB/US Model – FED
Fed
Simulations Call for Rate Hikes Soon – WSJ
MACRO NUMBERS
November
Jobs Report – The Numbers – WSJ
November
payrolls: + 321k, unemployment rate stays at 5.8% - FT
November
Jobs Report: Everything You Need to Know – WSJ
November
Employment Report: 321,000 Jobs, 5.8% Unemployment Rate – Calculated
Risk
321,000
jobs added in November – TradingFloor
Live
commentary: November jobs – Reuters
Bullish
U.S. employment report puts Fed under spotlight – Reuters
Strong jobs
report supports the case for lift-off in rates – Nordea
Biggest
Payroll Gain in Almost Three Years Boosts U.S. Wages – BB
US economy
adds 321,000 jobs – FT
Jobs Report:
Are Wages Finally Snapping Back? – WSJ
Jobs Report
in 10 Charts – WSJ
Economists
React to the Jobs Report: ‘A Blockbuster’ – WSJ
Hilsenrath:
Report Assures Global Central Banks Going in Two Directions – WSJ
Where This
Jobs Boom Ranks Among Recoveries – WSJ
5 Takeaways
From the November Jobs Report – WSJ
How Many
New Jobs Are Actually Full Time? – WSJ
Strong US
Jobs Data Sends Dollar Higher – Marc
to Market
Job growth
keeps the Fed on track for June rate hike – Danske
Bank
U.S. Employment Situation – Global
Macro Trading
The dog
still isn’t barking – The Money
Illusion
Reaction: Stocks
Stumble, Bonds & Bullion Bashed As USD Surges – ZH
Full-Time
Jobs Down 150K, Participation Rate Remains At 35 Year Lows – ZH
Secretaries,
Waiters, Retail, Education, Leisure And Temp-Help – ZH
Economy
Clearly Gaining Momentum – Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
Best Year
for Employment since the '90s – Calculated
Risk
Public and
Private Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama – Calculated
Risk
U.S. trade
deficit narrows slightly; exports rise – Reuters
Trade Gap
in U.S. Little Changed as Imports, Exports Increase – BB
ASIA
Ex-BOJ
Officials Concerned About ‘Precarious’ Easing – WSJ
‘Stagflation’
Possible for Japan, Morgan Stanley Says – WSJ
Some
striking facts about Japan’s demography – FT
European
economist at Japanese bank says Europe would be lucky to end up like Japan – FT
Big Abe
win will rekindle hope in Japan reforms – Reuters
Shinzo Abe
could be heading for a landslide election win. A big victory for the Japanese
prime minister would revive investor confidence in Japan’s economic reforms and
help shore up his anti-deflation campaign.
OTHER
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Blackstone’s
Take: Mario Draghi is a Patient Man * Fed Simulations Call for Rate Hikes Soon
* Brainard: Fed Still Thinking About Margin Rule * No New Stimulus From ECB, At
Least Not Yet * China Gives Boost to Banks in Bid to Reduce Borrowing Costs
Daily
Macro – WSJ
There’s
ample evidence by now that the U.S. labor market is improving. What’s lacking
is clear proof that wages are being pushed higher by this. Some point to early
indicators of wage pressures; others say there’s still enough slack in the
labor market to keep wages depressed. Either way, the hourly earnings number in
Friday’s report is becoming an increasingly import sub-indicator to watch.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Nordea
Morning – Nordea
Only 2% of
Swedes support government with Green Party and Social Democrats * Another
strong US non-farm payrolls reading in store
FI
Eye-Opener: ECB loading the guns – Nordea
German
yields rise, but US Treasuries rally. Core yields with more upside left. Oil
prices still heading lower. European equities under pressure. ECB to buy
everything but gold? Will yields rise this time on strong payrolls?
Yen and
Oil Slump, but Focus on ECB and US Jobs – Marc
to Market
US Open – ZH
Freefalling
Yen Levitates Equities Around The World
Daily
Shot: First blood to Japan in the yen-yuan currency war – TradingFloor
From the
floor: EUR treads carefully as NFP looms – TradingFloor
EURUSD
could be volatile post-NFP jobs report * Sharp selloff potential if NFP number
"in line with last month", warns Rieunier * ECB meeting sees muted
reaction among markets as Draghi prevaricates * Oil drift towards $60/b
continues; North Dakota shale at sub $50/b levels * Norway exchange OBX
"best way to trade energy theme," says Garnry * Saudi Arabia cuts
January OSPs to Asia and Europe * Cut indicates "they are still going for
market share," says Hansen
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Odotus vaihtuu pian teoiksi * Tänään USA:sta vahvaa
työmarkkinadataa * BoE kokous ei tarjonnut yllätyksiä