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Saturday, December 6

5th Dec - More on ECB, strong US jobs data

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Greek hopes of waving goodbye to bailout appear to be dashed FT

Sweden’s political instability is a warning to the rest of EuropeFT
Populists are disrupting the traditional electoral arithmetic

European headwinds: ECB policy and Fed
In the face of the zero lower bound, the ECB’s reduced its balance sheet by a third. This column introduces a new CEPR Policy Insight by former central bank governor Athanasios Orphanides that argues that the outcome has been economic stagnation and a harmful disinflation. It explores alternative explanations for this policy, including the role of politics in managing the Eurozone crisis and proposes balance-sheet policy that help fulfil of the ECB’s mandate in the face of Fed’s tightening.

Putin Says Crimea Sacred, Attacks U.S., EU Over Ukraine – BB
Putin’s New Crimea-as-Jerusalem Myth Baffles Russian Historians – BB
Putin Seen Grasping at Straws as Economic Cures Fail to Impress – BB

German ECB policymakers opposed new balance sheet language –sourcesReuters
Jens Weidmann and Sabine Lautenschlaeger opposed ECB decision to firm up language on the expansion of the bank's balance sheet, central bank sources said

"Draghi Loses The Majority" Blasts A Triumphant German PressZH

ECB Mutiny Sparks Late-Day Selling Scramble As QE Hopes FadeZH

Bear trap catches EURUSD shortsTradingFloor
The ECB is taking a wait and see approach, but QE is still on its agenda * It has lowered its baseline GDP growth and headline inflation forecasts * The ECB's “alternative paths" are more interesting than its baseline forecasts

The last but twoMacro Man

[video] Draghi's tactical retreat ahead of QEFT

Recap 2014-12-04Global Macro Trading

ECB paralyzed by split as irreversible deflation trap draws closerThe Telegraph
'It is now patently clear that Draghi lacks the crucial German support for launching full-blown QE'

Likely Unlikelies 2015: Euro Area inflation fails to accelerateNordea
The ECB is currently fighting to ensure confidence in its inflation target. We expect QE to be launched in Q1, and for inflation and growth to accelerate. But what if a substantial recovery remains elusive? How would the ECB and markets react in such a depressing scenario?

Eyes on Weidmann for Draghi pushbackReuters

The ECB winter of discontentBruegel
The last meeting of the governing council ended with no action and a controversial twist in the language

ECB to reassess policy stance in early-2015Markit
ECB keeps policy on hold, waiting until early next year to reassess * Growth and inflation forecasts revised lower

ECB meeting: All talk and no actionTradingFloor
The ECB announced nothing new, and resorted to altering a word or two while trying to make everyone believe that the change was significant. The real show was the backstabbing that followed. The internal quarrelling and disagreement is taking away the ECB’s last shreds of respectability and reliability.

ECB Chief Builds Support for Stimulus as Central Bank Plays It Cool for a WhileBB
Mario Draghi has seven weeks to build consensus among policy makers on a stimulus package following a fractious end to 2014.

ECB division on wording fails to impressFT
Markets expect much from next ECB meeting. If Mr Draghi does not deliver, fall-out will be painful

Euro-Area Growth Held Back by Investment Decline – BB
German factory orders jump in October – TradingFloor
Bundesbank Cuts Outlook Even as Factory Orders Jump – BB
Bundesbank cuts German growth forecast – FT

GDP up by 0.2% in the euro area and up by 0.3% in the EU28 – Eurostat

Optimal-Control Monetary Policy in the FRB/US ModelFED
Fed Simulations Call for Rate Hikes SoonWSJ

November Jobs Report – The Numbers – WSJ
November payrolls: + 321k, unemployment rate stays at 5.8% - FT
November Jobs Report: Everything You Need to Know – WSJ
November Employment Report: 321,000 Jobs, 5.8% Unemployment Rate – Calculated Risk
321,000 jobs added in November – TradingFloor
Live commentary: November jobs – Reuters
Bullish U.S. employment report puts Fed under spotlight – Reuters
Strong jobs report supports the case for lift-off in rates – Nordea
Biggest Payroll Gain in Almost Three Years Boosts U.S. Wages – BB
US economy adds 321,000 jobs – FT

Jobs Report: Are Wages Finally Snapping Back? – WSJ
Jobs Report in 10 Charts – WSJ
Economists React to the Jobs Report: ‘A Blockbuster’ – WSJ
Hilsenrath: Report Assures Global Central Banks Going in Two Directions – WSJ

Where This Jobs Boom Ranks Among Recoveries – WSJ
5 Takeaways From the November Jobs Report – WSJ
How Many New Jobs Are Actually Full Time? – WSJ
Strong US Jobs Data Sends Dollar Higher – Marc to Market
Job growth keeps the Fed on track for June rate hike – Danske Bank

U.S. Employment Situation – Global Macro Trading
The dog still isn’t barking – The Money Illusion
Reaction: Stocks Stumble, Bonds & Bullion Bashed As USD Surges – ZH
Full-Time Jobs Down 150K, Participation Rate Remains At 35 Year Lows – ZH
Secretaries, Waiters, Retail, Education, Leisure And Temp-Help – ZH

Economy Clearly Gaining Momentum – Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
Best Year for Employment since the '90s – Calculated Risk
Public and Private Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama – Calculated Risk

U.S. trade deficit narrows slightly; exports rise – Reuters
Trade Gap in U.S. Little Changed as Imports, Exports Increase – BB

OK, I Get it, the Japanese Government Bond Market Is Dead. And the Yen?Wolf Street

Ex-BOJ Officials Concerned About ‘Precarious’ EasingWSJ

‘Stagflation’ Possible for Japan, Morgan Stanley SaysWSJ

Some striking facts about Japan’s demographyFT

European economist at Japanese bank says Europe would be lucky to end up like JapanFT

Big Abe win will rekindle hope in Japan reformsReuters
Shinzo Abe could be heading for a landslide election win. A big victory for the Japanese prime minister would revive investor confidence in Japan’s economic reforms and help shore up his anti-deflation campaign.

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Blackstone’s Take: Mario Draghi is a Patient Man * Fed Simulations Call for Rate Hikes Soon * Brainard: Fed Still Thinking About Margin Rule * No New Stimulus From ECB, At Least Not Yet * China Gives Boost to Banks in Bid to Reduce Borrowing Costs

Daily MacroWSJ
There’s ample evidence by now that the U.S. labor market is improving. What’s lacking is clear proof that wages are being pushed higher by this. Some point to early indicators of wage pressures; others say there’s still enough slack in the labor market to keep wages depressed. Either way, the hourly earnings number in Friday’s report is becoming an increasingly import sub-indicator to watch.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Nordea MorningNordea
Only 2% of Swedes support government with Green Party and Social Democrats * Another strong US non-farm payrolls reading in store

FI Eye-Opener: ECB loading the gunsNordea
German yields rise, but US Treasuries rally. Core yields with more upside left. Oil prices still heading lower. European equities under pressure. ECB to buy everything but gold? Will yields rise this time on strong payrolls?

Yen and Oil Slump, but Focus on ECB and US JobsMarc to Market

Freefalling Yen Levitates Equities Around The World

Daily Shot: First blood to Japan in the yen-yuan currency warTradingFloor

From the floor: EUR treads carefully as NFP loomsTradingFloor
EURUSD could be volatile post-NFP jobs report * Sharp selloff potential if NFP number "in line with last month", warns Rieunier * ECB meeting sees muted reaction among markets as Draghi prevaricates * Oil drift towards $60/b continues; North Dakota shale at sub $50/b levels * Norway exchange OBX "best way to trade energy theme," says Garnry * Saudi Arabia cuts January OSPs to Asia and Europe * Cut indicates "they are still going for market share," says Hansen

Odotus vaihtuu pian teoiksi * Tänään USA:sta vahvaa työmarkkinadataa * BoE kokous ei tarjonnut yllätyksiä