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Monday, December 8

8th Dec - Eurocrisis suggested

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Likely Unlikelies 2015: Not a revolution, but… - Nordea
The almost forgotten political risks could easily make a comeback in 2015. The ECB can eliminate worries that unfounded fears would lead to a break-up of the euro, but its means are much more limited, when Euro-area countries are not willing or able to play ball. Real political risks are lurking around the corner, with the potential to shake markets once more…

Eurozone Needs Further Labor Market Reforms, Says IMFWSJ
IMF: need to cut protection for permanent workers and keep minimum wages on check

Juncker's CDO Coppola Comment
It is intended to fool people into believing that investments can be guaranteed by the public sector without cost. This is dangerous nonsense… Describing this scheme as funded with new investment capital from the EU is wrong. The EU's capital investment in this scheme is zero.

The Achilles' heel of Juncker's investment planBruegel
How will the right investment projects be selected?

Ageing Europe needs the new blood immigration bringsFT
In a Europe defined by ageing societies, shrinking workforces and stagnant living standards, immigration is both a partial economic solution and a political problem in its own right.

Rightwing populists in Europe make mischiefFT
Sweden’s Social Democrats are gambling on a snap election in 2015

Sweden in CrisisProject Syndicate
Sweden has been a rare beacon of success in Europe in the years since the 2008 global financial crisis, which is why many are shocked that its latest government collapsed only two months after taking office. What happened, and how likely is it that a snap election will restore stability?

Germany’s Credit Fuelled Growth – Facts and Incomplete RecommendationsPlace du Luxembourg

Hopes Shelves For A German Consumption-Led RecoveryAlpha Now

Greek radical left spooks global bond investorsFT
Greece’s forthcoming presidential election could enable radical leftwing party Syriza to take power in March.

Will reform of Italy’s labour market actually generate growth or employmentEuropp / LSE
While increasing the flexibility of the Italian labour market may be desirable, the rigidity of the labour market is not the biggest obstacle to growth in the country. The quality of Italy’s political institutions and governance standards should be the key focus of reform efforts.

Greece May Gain More Time for Aid Payout From Euro BlocBB
The euro area signaled that Greece will win extra time to qualify for its next installment of international aid as the government in Athens resists calls for more spending cuts.

Greek Lawmakers Pass Budget, Amid Troika DisagreementsBB

Russian bond yield soars to highest since 2009FT

The ECB, demigods and eurozone quantitative easingFT
Wolfgang Münchau: The question is no longer whether it will happen but how it will work

ECB Loans Seen as Underwhelming in Acid Test for DraghiBB
Mario Draghi is about to get an idea of how far reality falls short of his intentions.

Italy's Bad Credit Is Draghi's Moral HazardView / BB
Italy’s credit rating is just one downgrade away from junk, while borrowing costs are the lowest they've ever been. This contradiction highlights the conundrum the ECB faces as it tries to revive the moribund euro economy.

The Fed’s plan to “normalise” interest ratesFT
Gavyn Davies: If the Vice Chairman is representative of the Yellen tendency, it would now require a large drop in core inflation to dislodge the FOMC from its intended path.

Japan recession worse than first reportedFT
Q3 GDP estimate lowered from 1.6% to 1.9%, contraction in spending by businesses twice as severe as first thought.

China: exports disappoint despite weaker CNY – Nordea
China’s equity frenzy: putting easing on hold? – FT
Economists React: China’s Trade Weakens in November – WSJ

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Currency Mismatch Seems Likely to Deepen as Central Banks Diverge * Hilsenrath Analysis: Friday’s Jobs Report Assures Global Central Banks Going in Two Directions * Cleveland Fed’s Mester Says the Economy is Coming Back * Bank for International Settlements Sounds Alarm Over Dollar * ECB’s Nowotny Warns on Falling Inflation, Growth

Daily MacroWSJ
Continued improvement in the U.S. economy - manifest most starkly in Friday’s blockbuster jobs report - which is playing out in the form of a stronger dollar. On the other, we have a persistent, almost deflationary cycle setting in among the rest of the world’s economies.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Nordea MorningNordea
New election negative for Sweden’s credit rating * Strong US non-farm payrolls

FI Eye-Opener: Strong payrolls hit the US bond marketNordea
US Treasuries take a beating – German bonds suffer only moderate losses. Intra-Euro-area spreads narrow again. Core yields with some more upside left. European equities rally again. Oil prices continue to fall. Payrolls – and finally also earnings – surge. Italy suffers a downgrade – Ireland continuing to do much better. ECB TLTRO and US retail sales ahead. Supply action not done for the year yet.

Japan's GDP and China's Trade DisappointMarc to Market

China Surges, Japan Closes Green On Horrible Econ Data; Oil Tumbles To Fresh 5 Year Lows

Daily Shot TradingFloor
Yen continues to plummet * Demand for oil not declining * US-based banks now hold record amounts of treasury and agency securities

From the floor: Dollar powers ahead after NFP boostTradingFloor
Dollar strength after last weeks stunning NFP report has seen it rise against almost all of its peers and that is unlikely to change for now. There's a warning on NZD and it looks like yet more bad news for Russia.

FX: Another 'R' wordNordea
As the year and approaches, FX volatility should come down. This week - EMU industrial vs US retail sales data, but China will drive the sentiment near term - global growth momentum turning?...

Only Bernanke knew Oil is not inflationMacrofugue
Other central banks didn’t, raised rates too early and ended in a recession.

BIS Quarterly Review (Press Release) – BIS
BIS Quarterly Review, December 2014BIS
The BIS Quarterly Review for December 2014: Buoyant but fragile? Special features on "Currency movements drive reserve composition", "Securitisation: tranching concentrates uncertainty", "Bank business models" and "Non-financial corporations in emerging markets and capital flows".

5 Takeaways From The BIS Quarterly ReviewWSJ
Markets are becoming increasingly volatile * Dollar strength is a concern * Cross-border banking is increasing * Shadow banking is growing in emerging markets * CDOs are back

EU Is the Global Laggard on Basel IIIBruegel
The Basel Committee found the EU “materially non-compliant” with Basel III

EU falling short on implementing bank capital rulesOpen Europe
EU was given the second lowest rating (on a scale of four) of “materially non-compliant”,

How the Rising Dollar Could Trigger the Next Global Financial CrisisWSJ
Bank for International Settlements sounds alarm over dollarFT
Dollar surge endangers global debt edifice, warns BISThe Telegraph
These are not the dollars you’re looking forFT
Why the Dollar Could Keep Climbing. And Why That’s WorryingWSJ

EKP:n rahoitusoperaatio jäämässä laihaksi – taas | Työpaikkoja syntyy pian muuallakin | Saksan tehdastilaukset ylittivät odotukset

Keynesiläisen elvytyspolitiikan voittokulku jatkuuPT
Heikki Taimio: Euroalueen todellisesta elvyttämisestä ei taida tulla mitään ennen kuin Saksan yli kävellään – ja oikein kunnolla.

Suomi on pysynyt pienten palkkaerojen maanaPT

Teollisuuden, rakentamisen ja liike-elämän palveluiden näkymät PT
Teollisuuden saamat tilaukset ovat nousussa Venäjän viennin romahduksesta huolimatta * Suomen talouskasvu edelleen hidasta, tosin ei enää muuta euroaluetta hitaampaa

Opposition varjobudjetit: ojasta allikkoonRoger Wessman / Marketnoze
Oppositio yksimielisesti lupaa yrittämistä ja työntekoa hillitseviä veronkorotuksia, eikä kukaan uskalla esittää todellisesti elvyttävää finanssipolitiikkaa.

EU:n valtiovarainministerit puivat Kreikan tilannettaVerkkouutiset

Asiantuntija: Yrittäjien veronmaksumoraali rapautuu, julkinen sektori paisuuKaleva
Aalto-yliopiston rahoituksen professori Vesa Puttonen sanoo, että yrittäjien keskuudessa on käynnistymässä poikkeuksellinen ja erittäin huolestuttava asenneilmapiirin muutos, joka on historiallista Suomessa.

Mihin EU:ta tarvitaan?SS
Juho Romakkaniemi: Itsenäisyydessä on kysymys myös suvereniteetista eli perimmäisestä itsemääräämisoikeudesta. Ja sitä ei EU-jäsenyys suomalaisilta pois ota. EU:n perussopimuksessa on myös menettelyt EU:sta eroamiseen.

Seminaari-Suomen esimerkki: 10 miljoonaa yhteen ainoaan virkistysseminaariin Seura
Ari Korvola: Jos vaurautta toisivat erilaiset kokoontumiset, joissa päättäjät pätevät, Suomi olisi maailman rikkain kansakunta.

Kysely: Iso osa kansasta ei usko valtiovarainministeriinYLE
Valtiovarainministerin omat joukot sanovat Antti Rinteen onnistuneen tehtävässään. Sen sijaan hallituskumppanin ja opposition suunnalta tulee kritiikkiä.

Helsingin Sanomat valehtelee jälleenProfessorin ajatuksia

Etelärannan uusi pomo: Suomessa on vaisu ja energiaton mieliala HS
Alahuhta: "Jos tätä jatkuu, asiat pitää lopulta oikaista romahduksen kautta"Verkkouutiset

"EU-varojen käyttö on hunningolla"KL
EU-varojen käyttö on hunningolla. Tulosten ja tehokkuuden sijaan viranomaiset keskittyvät siihen, että kaikki varat tulevat käytettyä. Tämä uhkaa jo kansalaisten luottamusta, varoittaa tilintarkastus-tuomioistuimen jäsen Ville Itälä.