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EUROPE
Likely
Unlikelies 2015: Not a revolution, but… - Nordea
The almost
forgotten political risks could easily make a comeback in 2015. The ECB can
eliminate worries that unfounded fears would lead to a break-up of the euro,
but its means are much more limited, when Euro-area countries are not willing
or able to play ball. Real political risks are lurking around the corner, with
the potential to shake markets once more…
Eurozone
Needs Further Labor Market Reforms, Says IMF – WSJ
IMF: need
to cut protection for permanent workers and keep minimum wages on check
Juncker's
CDO – Coppola
Comment
It is
intended to fool people into believing that investments can be guaranteed by
the public sector without cost. This is dangerous nonsense… Describing this
scheme as funded with new investment capital from the EU is wrong. The EU's
capital investment in this scheme is zero.
The
Achilles' heel of Juncker's investment plan – Bruegel
How will
the right investment projects be selected?
Ageing
Europe needs the new blood immigration brings – FT
In a Europe
defined by ageing societies, shrinking workforces and stagnant living
standards, immigration is both a partial economic solution and a political
problem in its own right.
Rightwing
populists in Europe make mischief – FT
Sweden’s
Social Democrats are gambling on a snap election in 2015
Sweden
in Crisis – Project
Syndicate
Sweden has
been a rare beacon of success in Europe in the years since the 2008 global
financial crisis, which is why many are shocked that its latest government
collapsed only two months after taking office. What happened, and how likely is
it that a snap election will restore stability?
Germany’s
Credit Fuelled Growth – Facts and Incomplete Recommendations – Place
du Luxembourg
Hopes
Shelves For A German Consumption-Led Recovery – Alpha
Now
CRISIS COUNTRIES
Greek
radical left spooks global bond investors – FT
Greece’s
forthcoming presidential election could enable radical leftwing party Syriza to
take power in March.
While
increasing the flexibility of the Italian labour market may be desirable, the
rigidity of the labour market is not the biggest obstacle to growth in the
country. The quality of Italy’s political institutions and governance standards
should be the key focus of reform efforts.
The euro
area signaled that Greece will win extra time to qualify for its next
installment of international aid as the government in Athens resists calls for
more spending cuts.
Greek
Lawmakers Pass Budget, Amid Troika Disagreements – BB
Russian
bond yield soars to highest since 2009 – FT
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
The ECB,
demigods and eurozone quantitative easing – FT
Wolfgang Münchau:
The question is no longer whether it will happen but how it will work
ECB
Loans Seen as Underwhelming in Acid Test for Draghi – BB
Mario
Draghi is about to get an idea of how far reality falls short of his
intentions.
Italy's
Bad Credit Is Draghi's Moral Hazard – View
/ BB
Italy’s
credit rating is just one downgrade away from junk, while borrowing costs are
the lowest they've ever been. This contradiction highlights the conundrum the ECB
faces as it tries to revive the moribund euro economy.
UNITED STATES
The
Fed’s plan to “normalise” interest rates – FT
Gavyn
Davies: If the Vice Chairman is representative of the Yellen tendency, it would
now require a large drop in core inflation to dislodge the FOMC from its
intended path.
ASIA
Japan
recession worse than first reported – FT
Q3 GDP
estimate lowered from 1.6% to 1.9%, contraction in spending by businesses twice
as severe as first thought.
China: exports
disappoint despite weaker CNY – Nordea
China’s
equity frenzy: putting easing on hold? – FT
Economists
React: China’s Trade Weakens in November – WSJ
OTHER
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: Currency Mismatch Seems Likely to Deepen as Central Banks Diverge * Hilsenrath
Analysis: Friday’s Jobs Report Assures Global Central Banks Going in Two
Directions * Cleveland Fed’s Mester Says the Economy is Coming Back * Bank for
International Settlements Sounds Alarm Over Dollar * ECB’s Nowotny Warns on
Falling Inflation, Growth
Daily
Macro – WSJ
Continued
improvement in the U.S. economy - manifest most starkly in
Friday’s blockbuster jobs report - which is playing out in the form of a stronger
dollar. On the other, we have a persistent, almost deflationary cycle setting
in among the rest of the world’s economies.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Nordea
Morning – Nordea
New
election negative for Sweden’s credit rating * Strong US non-farm payrolls
FI
Eye-Opener: Strong payrolls hit the US bond market – Nordea
US
Treasuries take a beating – German bonds suffer only moderate losses.
Intra-Euro-area spreads narrow again. Core yields with some more upside left.
European equities rally again. Oil prices continue to fall. Payrolls – and
finally also earnings – surge. Italy suffers a downgrade – Ireland continuing
to do much better. ECB TLTRO and US retail sales ahead. Supply action not done
for the year yet.
Japan's
GDP and China's Trade Disappoint – Marc
to Market
US Open – ZH
China Surges, Japan Closes Green On Horrible Econ Data;
Oil Tumbles To Fresh 5 Year Lows
Daily
Shot – TradingFloor
Yen
continues to plummet * Demand for oil not declining * US-based banks now hold
record amounts of treasury and agency securities
From the
floor: Dollar powers ahead after NFP boost – TradingFloor
Dollar
strength after last weeks stunning NFP report has seen it rise against almost
all of its peers and that is unlikely to change for now. There's a warning on
NZD and it looks like yet more bad news for Russia.
FX:
Another 'R' word – Nordea
As the year
and approaches, FX volatility should come down. This week - EMU industrial vs US retail sales data, but China will drive the sentiment near term
- global growth momentum turning?...
Only
Bernanke knew Oil is not inflation – Macrofugue
Other
central banks didn’t, raised rates too early and ended in a recession.
BIS QUARTERLY REVIEW
BIS
Quarterly Review (Press
Release) – BIS
BIS
Quarterly Review, December 2014 – BIS
The BIS
Quarterly Review for December 2014: Buoyant but fragile? Special features on
"Currency movements drive reserve composition", "Securitisation:
tranching concentrates uncertainty", "Bank business models" and
"Non-financial corporations in emerging markets and capital flows".
5
Takeaways From The BIS Quarterly Review – WSJ
Markets are
becoming increasingly volatile * Dollar strength is a concern * Cross-border
banking is increasing * Shadow banking is growing in emerging markets * CDOs
are back
EU Is
the Global Laggard on Basel III – Bruegel
The Basel
Committee found the EU “materially non-compliant” with Basel III
EU
falling short on implementing bank capital rules – Open
Europe
EU was
given the second lowest rating (on a scale of four) of “materially
non-compliant”,
How the
Rising Dollar Could Trigger the Next Global Financial Crisis – WSJ
Bank for
International Settlements sounds alarm over dollar – FT
Dollar
surge endangers global debt edifice, warns BIS – The
Telegraph
These are not the dollars you’re
looking for – FT
Why the Dollar Could Keep
Climbing. And Why That’s Worrying – WSJ
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
EKP:n rahoitusoperaatio jäämässä laihaksi – taas |
Työpaikkoja syntyy pian muuallakin | Saksan tehdastilaukset ylittivät odotukset
Keynesiläisen elvytyspolitiikan voittokulku jatkuu – PT
Heikki Taimio: Euroalueen todellisesta elvyttämisestä ei
taida tulla mitään ennen kuin Saksan yli kävellään – ja oikein kunnolla.
Suomi on pysynyt pienten palkkaerojen maana – PT
Teollisuuden, rakentamisen ja liike-elämän palveluiden
näkymät – PT
Teollisuuden saamat tilaukset ovat nousussa Venäjän viennin
romahduksesta huolimatta * Suomen talouskasvu edelleen hidasta, tosin ei enää
muuta euroaluetta hitaampaa
Opposition varjobudjetit: ojasta allikkoon – Roger
Wessman / Marketnoze
Oppositio yksimielisesti lupaa yrittämistä ja työntekoa
hillitseviä veronkorotuksia, eikä kukaan uskalla esittää todellisesti elvyttävää
finanssipolitiikkaa.
EU:n valtiovarainministerit puivat Kreikan tilannetta
– Verkkouutiset
Asiantuntija: Yrittäjien veronmaksumoraali rapautuu,
julkinen sektori paisuu – Kaleva
Aalto-yliopiston rahoituksen professori Vesa Puttonen sanoo,
että yrittäjien keskuudessa on käynnistymässä poikkeuksellinen ja erittäin
huolestuttava asenneilmapiirin muutos, joka on historiallista Suomessa.
Mihin EU:ta tarvitaan? – SS
Juho Romakkaniemi: Itsenäisyydessä on kysymys myös suvereniteetista
eli perimmäisestä itsemääräämisoikeudesta. Ja sitä ei EU-jäsenyys suomalaisilta
pois ota. EU:n perussopimuksessa on myös menettelyt EU:sta eroamiseen.
Seminaari-Suomen esimerkki: 10 miljoonaa yhteen ainoaan
virkistysseminaariin – Seura
Ari Korvola: Jos vaurautta toisivat erilaiset kokoontumiset,
joissa päättäjät pätevät, Suomi olisi maailman rikkain kansakunta.
Kysely: Iso osa kansasta ei usko valtiovarainministeriin
– YLE
Valtiovarainministerin omat joukot sanovat Antti Rinteen
onnistuneen tehtävässään. Sen sijaan hallituskumppanin ja opposition suunnalta
tulee kritiikkiä.
Helsingin Sanomat valehtelee jälleen – Professorin
ajatuksia
Etelärannan uusi pomo: Suomessa on vaisu ja energiaton
mieliala – HS
Alahuhta: "Jos tätä jatkuu, asiat pitää lopulta
oikaista romahduksen kautta" – Verkkouutiset
"EU-varojen käyttö on hunningolla" – KL
EU-varojen käyttö on hunningolla. Tulosten ja tehokkuuden
sijaan viranomaiset keskittyvät siihen, että kaikki varat tulevat käytettyä. Tämä
uhkaa jo kansalaisten luottamusta, varoittaa tilintarkastus-tuomioistuimen jäsen
Ville Itälä.