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Sunday, December 7

7th Dec - W/E: Linkfest

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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French politics: Déjà vuThe Economist
Nicolas Sarkozy returns to lead the centre-right against Marine Le Pen

Sweden’s government: That was quickThe Economist
Stefan Lofven’s fall shows the strength of the far-right Sweden Democrats

Britain's autumn statement: Repeating mistakesThe Economist
Since 2013 the economy has shown reasonable growth quarter after quarter, but interest rates remain at the zero lower bound, and the Bank of England is not expecting inflation to reach its 2% target until 2017. This suggests plenty of scope for additional growth remains, but it also means that more growth depends on expanding demand.

How Italy lost la dolce vitaFT
The old have nice pensions, the middle-aged are unsackable and the young fight for temporary contracts

S&P cuts Italy sovereign rating to BBB-, just above junkReuters

Lithuania and the euro: Strange bedfellowsThe Economist
The euro zone’s newest member faces an uphill struggle

Merkel says France and Italy must do more on reformsReuters

Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area: Competitiveness or Financial Cycle?SSRN
The current account imbalances that are at the heart of the European sovereign debt crisis are often attributed to differences in price competitiveness. However, recent research suggests that domestic demand booms related to the financial cycle may have been more important.

Governing by Panic: The Politics of the Eurozone CrisisSSRN
The Eurozone’s reaction to the economic crisis beginning in late 2008 involved both efforts to mitigate the arbitrarily destructive effects of markets and vigorous pursuit of policies aimed at austerity and deflation. To explain this paradoxical outcome, this paper builds on Karl Polanyi’s account of how politics reached a similar deadlock in the 1930s.

[2001] Will the Euro Bring Economic Crisis to Europe?SSRN
The objectives of the ECB and the workings of the Stability and Growth Pact, will have a deflationary bias…euro and the associated institutional setting could well serve to exacerbate tendencies toward financial crisis…Some additional forces of instability may arise from the current trade imbalances and the relationship between the dollar and the euro as two major global currencies. Further, the operating arrangements of the European System of Central Banks can be seen as inadequate to cope with such financial crises.

Draghi's authority drains away as half ECB board joins mutinyThe Telegraph
AEP: Draghi is right: the euro means a single government and a European superstate, and to pretend otherwise is intellectually infantile.

ECB's loans offer clues in QE guessing gameReuters
The guessing game over the timing of euro zone money printing will intensify as the ECB unveils a closely watched gauge of policy in the coming week, the highlight of a calendar dominated by Europe's malaise.

Bank on 'Super Mario' to give Europe a monetary jolt Reuters
Weidmann and conservative German politicians may feel obliged to represent their constituents by opposing QE, but what matters is whether the Bundesbank would go along with a majority decision or publicly denounce it. The chances of the former are rising as Draghi patiently advances his arguments.

Likely Unlikelies 2015: Euro Area inflation fails to accelerateNordea
The ECB is currently fighting to ensure confidence in its inflation target. We expect QE to be launched in Q1, and for inflation and growth to accelerate. But what if a substantial recovery remains elusive? How would the ECB and markets react in such a depressing scenario?

Hiring Surge Shows Strength of U.S. Economy as Bears Flee BB
Even skeptics of the U.S. economic recovery are turning into optimists.

Broadest Job Gains Since 1998 Mean Faster Wage Growth Is ComingBB

Investors Move Closer to Fed View on Timing, Pace of Rate Rises BB

Fed Seen Reinforcing Guidance on 2015 Rate Rise After Jobs DataBB

Abenomics Is Floundering – Time To Fire The Third Arrow!Thomson Reuters
We highlight in particular the notable failure of monetary policy to drive credit creation – Mr Kuroda seems to be pushing on a string. What is needed is the long-lost Third Arrow – meaningful structural reform – to support the Bank of Japan’s efforts.

Japan’s election: Abe’s last chanceThe Economist
Japan desperately needs economic reform; Shinzo Abe still offers the best chance of that

Japan and Abenomics: Moment of reckoningThe Economist
Shinzo Abe’s expected victory in next week’s snap election will leave him no excuse for further backsliding on structural reform

Eye on the marketJPM
The Agony and the Ecstasy: The Risks and Rewards of a Concentrated Stock Position

One of the Most Famous Rules of Investing Might Be Totally WrongBusinessweek
The riskiest 25 percent of stocks—those most vulnerable to swings of the broad market—logged an average annual return of just over 7 percent per year. The least-risky 25 percent of stocks returned 10.6 percent per year.

Here are Wall Street’s six worst trades of 2014Quartz

The Trader’s Journey: The Hero’s JourneyAdam Grimes

The eight most important charts of the week Quartz

This Is What The Next Financial Crisis Might Look LikeBI
Hyun Song Shin, the relatively new head economist for the Bank of International Settlements

Clarifying Fama and FrenchCFA Institute

A Comparative Analysis of Liquidity MeasuresSSRN
Most of the liquidity components are priced adequately in the US stock exchanges and liquidity comprises a solid risk premium for market participants.

Government debt, financial markets and dead parrotsMainly Macro

Keep the monetary pedal pressed to the floorFT
Global growth could accelerate if policy is allowed to stay loose

ICYMI: Evolving Crude ThinkingMarc to Market
The decline in energy prices has increasingly become important for consumers, investors, and policy makers.  Here are nine essays I have written in recent weeks that analyze what is going on

The new economics of oil: Sheikhs v shaleThe Economist
The economics of oil have changed. Some businesses will go bust, but the market will be healthier

Will falling oil prices curb America’s shale boom?The Economist

OPEC: Making the best of a low priceThe Economist
An effective cartel requires three things: discipline, a dominant market position and barriers to entry. OPEC lacks all three.

Indepth: Living With Cheaper OilFT

Two Hours of "Star Wars: Deleted Magic"mental floss

When Science Fiction Stopped Caring About the FutureThe Atlantic
The Star Wars reboot looks like another example of how the genre's most popular works have given up on imagining new worlds

Everything you need to know about human exploration of MarsVOX

George Orwell’s luminous truthsFT
The English writer is revealed in all his fierce integrity in a new collection of journalism

Weekend Reads: Zombies, Strategy, and the Future of the PlanetCFA Institute

In North Korea, hackers are a handpicked, pampered eliteReuters

Not As Loony As It SoundsSlate
Google’s “impossible" plan to beam Internet from solar-powered balloons is actually working. Here’s how.

Best books of 2014FT
The FT’s books editor reflects on the literary year

10 of The Most Counter-intuitive Psychology Findings Ever PublishedBPS

The 85 Most Disruptive Ideas in Our HistoryBusinessweek

International Migration Outlook 2014OECD
Shifts in migration underline need for policy reformOECD

New Apps Instantly Convert Spreadsheets Into Something Actually ReadableWired

Google’s Intelligence DesignerMIT Technology Review
The man behind a startup acquired by Google for $628 million plans to build a revolutionary new artificial intelligence.

Why Our Memory Fails UsNYT

Making Good Use of Bad TimingNautilus
We bend time to make our world make sense.

Artificial Intelligence May End Our World, But That Is Not the Main ProblemWired

The Life and Death of a 'Cool' CityNew Republic
Which metropolis will Berlin's tourist hordes descend on next?

Lunch with the FT: Esa-Pekka SalonenFT
Over king crab in Stockholm, the Finnish conductor-composer talks about Baltic heavy metal bands, starring in an iPad ad and why classical music should be at the centre of political debate

Itsenäisyyspäivä ja tulevaisuusPeter Nyberg
Draghin käsityksen osoittaminen vääräksi edellyttää, että tuleva eduskunta kieltäytyy luovuttamasta lisää valtaa euroalueen päättäjille. Myöntyvyyspolitiikan lopettaminen ei tule olemaan helppoa. Suomen itsenäisyyden ehdottomana edellytyksenä oleva talouspoliittinen itsemääräämisoikeus on asetettu ja asetetaan yhä selvemmin kyseenalaiseksi. Monet nykyiset suomalaiset päättäjät, toisin kuin juhlissa muistettavat menneiden vuosien merkkihenkilöt aikanaan, eivät pidä tätä ongelmallisena. Eräät pitävät sitä jopa tavoiteltavana.

Raimo Sailas: Ongelmat eivät ratkea toiveajattelullaTUT
Tutkimukseen ja tietoon nojaava julkisen talouden tehtävien perinpohjainen arviointi ja veropolitiikan uudistaminen. Työeläkemaksujen alentaminen. Työajan pidentäminen palkkoja nostamatta. Siinä Sailaksen lista Suomen seuraavalle hallitukselle. Nyt Suomi tarvitsee tekoja, ei tyhjää puhetta.

Sailas Lännen Medialle: Euroalueen hajoaminen mahdollistaESS
Sailas pitää selvyytenä, että Kreikka ei selviä veloistaan.

Raimo Sailas sanoo Suomen olevan joutumassa tyhmien kirjoihinVerkkouutiset
Valtiovarainministeriön ex-valtiosihteeri ihmettelee puolueiden hiljaisuutta tarvittavista säästöistä.

Bruce Oreck: Lopettakaa ruikutus ja ottakaa nämä viisi askelta menestykseenHS
Yhdysvaltain suurlähettiläs jättää tehtävänsä mutta ei Suomea. Hän osti Helsingistä arvoasunnon, jonka remontti paljasti Suomen järjettömän sääntöviidakon.

Suomen pääomakannan surkastuminen pilaa elintasommeNordea
Suomen kansantalous tienaa reaalisesti asukasta kohti 13 % vähemmän kuin vuonna 2007. Ei ihme, että monella sektorilla investoinnit ovat pääoman kulumista pienemmät. Tällä menolla meidän talouskasvumme hyytyy niin, että elintason lasku jatkuu pitkään ja hyvinvointivaltion rahoittaminen käy mahdottomaksi.

Suomi: 2014 vahvistuu nollakasvun vuodeksiRoger Wessman / Marketnoze
Tilastokeskuksen tarkennetut luvut vahvistavat kuvaa siitä, että tämä vuosi jää Suomen taloudelle nollakasvun vuodeksi – mutta ei varsinaiseksi taantumavuodeksi. Taloutta on nostanut pieni piristyminen viennissä. Taakkana on edelleen ripeästi supistuneet investoinnit.

Rinne tähtää oppositioonVesa Varhee / TalSa
Puolueet ovat alkaneet julkistaa eduskuntavaaliohjelmiaan. Kuten tavallista, ne sisältävät enemmän hurskaita toiveita kuin konkretiaa. Sdp:n ohjelmasta voi kuitenkin kohtalaisen selkeästi lukea, että puheenjohtaja Antti Rinne pyrkii välttämään paikkaa hallituksessa. Linjan esitykset ovat omiaan pahentamaan Suomen talouden tilaa.

Rasistit ovat rasittavia – myös taloudelleJan Hurri / TalSa
Ruotsi ei ole suinkaan ainoa Euroopan maa, jossa protestipuolue panee politiikan mullin mallin, sillä protestipuolueiden kannatus kasvaa kautta EU-maiden. Tyytymättömyys vaihtelee maittain, mutta yksi protestipuolueita yhdistävä piirre on halu rajoittaa maahanmuuttoa tai suoranainen rasismi. Euroopan talous tarvitsee enemmän maahanmuuttajia kuin rasisteja.

Jörn Donner haukkuu hallituksen ja Linnan juhlien kunniamerkitHS

Suomalaisten luottamus EU:hun on vahvistunut HS

AP-Raati: Rahat osakkeisiinArvopaperi

Suomen Pankki elvytysrintamassa – entä Suomi?Timo Harakka

EKP on AfD:n vankiHenri Myllyniemi / US

Riippuvuuspäivä ja Suomen neljä tietäJukka Hankamäki