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EUROPE
French
politics: Déjà vu –
The
Economist
Nicolas
Sarkozy returns to lead the centre-right against Marine Le Pen
Sweden’s
government: That was quick – The
Economist
Stefan
Lofven’s fall shows the strength of the far-right Sweden Democrats
Britain's
autumn statement: Repeating mistakes – The
Economist
Since 2013
the economy has shown reasonable growth quarter after quarter, but interest
rates remain at the zero lower bound, and the Bank of England is not expecting
inflation to reach its 2% target until 2017. This suggests plenty of scope for
additional growth remains, but it also means that more growth depends on
expanding demand.
The old
have nice pensions, the middle-aged are unsackable and the young fight for
temporary contracts
S&P
cuts Italy sovereign rating to BBB-, just above junk – Reuters
Lithuania
and the euro: Strange bedfellows – The
Economist
The euro
zone’s newest member faces an uphill struggle
Current
Account Imbalances in the Euro Area: Competitiveness or Financial Cycle? – SSRN
The current
account imbalances that are at the heart of the European sovereign debt crisis
are often attributed to differences in price competitiveness. However, recent
research suggests that domestic demand booms related to the financial cycle may
have been more important.
Governing
by Panic: The Politics of the Eurozone Crisis – SSRN
The
Eurozone’s reaction to the economic crisis beginning in late 2008 involved both
efforts to mitigate the arbitrarily destructive effects of markets and vigorous
pursuit of policies aimed at austerity and deflation. To explain this
paradoxical outcome, this paper builds on Karl Polanyi’s account of how
politics reached a similar deadlock in the 1930s.
The
objectives of the ECB and the workings of the Stability and Growth Pact, will
have a deflationary bias…euro and the associated institutional setting could
well serve to exacerbate tendencies toward financial crisis…Some additional
forces of instability may arise from the current trade imbalances and the
relationship between the dollar and the euro as two major global currencies.
Further, the operating arrangements of the European System of Central Banks can
be seen as inadequate to cope with such financial crises.
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Draghi's
authority drains away as half ECB board joins mutiny – The
Telegraph
AEP: Draghi
is right: the euro means a single government and a European superstate, and to
pretend otherwise is intellectually infantile.
ECB's
loans offer clues in QE guessing game – Reuters
The
guessing game over the timing of euro zone money printing will intensify as the
ECB unveils a closely watched gauge of policy in the coming week, the highlight
of a calendar dominated by Europe's malaise.
Bank on
'Super Mario' to give Europe a monetary jolt – Reuters
Weidmann
and conservative German politicians may feel obliged to represent their
constituents by opposing QE, but what matters is whether the Bundesbank would
go along with a majority decision or publicly denounce it. The chances of the
former are rising as Draghi patiently advances his arguments.
Likely
Unlikelies 2015: Euro Area inflation fails to accelerate – Nordea
The ECB is
currently fighting to ensure confidence in its inflation target. We expect QE
to be launched in Q1, and for inflation and growth to accelerate. But what if a
substantial recovery remains elusive? How would the ECB and markets react in
such a depressing scenario?
UNITED STATES
Even
skeptics of the U.S. economic recovery are turning into
optimists.
Broadest
Job Gains Since 1998 Mean Faster Wage Growth Is Coming – BB
Investors
Move Closer to Fed View on Timing, Pace of Rate Rises – BB
Fed Seen
Reinforcing Guidance on 2015 Rate Rise After Jobs Data – BB
ASIA
Abenomics
Is Floundering – Time To Fire The Third Arrow! – Thomson
Reuters
We
highlight in particular the notable failure of monetary policy to drive credit
creation – Mr Kuroda seems to be pushing on a string. What is needed is the
long-lost Third Arrow – meaningful structural reform – to support the Bank of
Japan’s efforts.
Japan’s
election: Abe’s last chance – The
Economist
Japan
desperately needs economic reform; Shinzo Abe still offers the best chance of
that
Japan
and Abenomics: Moment of reckoning – The
Economist
Shinzo
Abe’s expected victory in next week’s snap election will leave him no excuse
for further backsliding on structural reform
OTHER
Eye on
the market – JPM
The Agony
and the Ecstasy: The Risks and Rewards of a Concentrated Stock Position
One of
the Most Famous Rules of Investing Might Be Totally Wrong – Businessweek
The
riskiest 25 percent of stocks—those most vulnerable to swings of the broad
market—logged an average annual return of just over 7 percent per year. The
least-risky 25 percent of stocks returned 10.6 percent per year.
Here are
Wall Street’s six worst trades of 2014 – Quartz
The
Trader’s Journey: The Hero’s Journey – Adam Grimes
The
eight most important charts of the week – Quartz
ECONOMICS
This Is
What The Next Financial Crisis Might Look Like – BI
Hyun Song
Shin, the relatively new head economist for the Bank of International
Settlements
Clarifying
Fama and French – CFA
Institute
A
Comparative Analysis of Liquidity Measures – SSRN
Most of the
liquidity components are priced adequately in the US stock exchanges and
liquidity comprises a solid risk premium for market participants.
Government
debt, financial markets and dead parrots – Mainly
Macro
Keep the
monetary pedal pressed to the floor – FT
Global
growth could accelerate if policy is allowed to stay loose
OIL
ICYMI:
Evolving Crude Thinking – Marc
to Market
The decline
in energy prices has increasingly become important for consumers, investors,
and policy makers. Here are nine essays
I have written in recent weeks that analyze what is going on
The new
economics of oil: Sheikhs v shale – The
Economist
The
economics of oil have changed. Some businesses will go bust, but the market
will be healthier
OPEC:
Making the best of a low price – The
Economist
An effective
cartel requires three things: discipline, a dominant market position and
barriers to entry. OPEC lacks all three.
Indepth:
Living With Cheaper Oil – FT
OFF-TOPIC
Two
Hours of "Star Wars: Deleted Magic" – mental
floss
When
Science Fiction Stopped Caring About the Future – The
Atlantic
The Star
Wars reboot looks like another example of how the genre's most popular works
have given up on imagining new worlds
Everything
you need to know about human exploration of Mars – VOX
George
Orwell’s luminous truths – FT
The English
writer is revealed in all his fierce integrity in a new collection of
journalism
Weekend
Reads: Zombies, Strategy, and the Future of the Planet – CFA
Institute
Not As
Loony As It Sounds
– Slate
Google’s
“impossible" plan to beam Internet from solar-powered balloons is actually
working. Here’s how.
Best
books of 2014 – FT
The FT’s
books editor reflects on the literary year
10 of
The Most Counter-intuitive Psychology Findings Ever Published – BPS
The 85
Most Disruptive Ideas in Our History – Businessweek
International
Migration Outlook 2014 – OECD
Shifts
in migration underline need for policy reform – OECD
New Apps
Instantly Convert Spreadsheets Into Something Actually Readable – Wired
Google’s
Intelligence Designer
– MIT
Technology Review
The man
behind a startup acquired by Google for $628 million plans to build a
revolutionary new artificial intelligence.
Why Our
Memory Fails Us – NYT
Making
Good Use of Bad Timing – Nautilus
We bend
time to make our world make sense.
Artificial
Intelligence May End Our World, But That Is Not the Main Problem – Wired
The Life
and Death of a 'Cool' City – New
Republic
Which
metropolis will Berlin's tourist hordes descend on next?
Lunch
with the FT: Esa-Pekka Salonen – FT
Over king
crab in Stockholm, the Finnish conductor-composer talks about Baltic heavy
metal bands, starring in an iPad ad and why classical music should be at the
centre of political debate
FINNISH
Itsenäisyyspäivä ja tulevaisuus – Peter
Nyberg
Draghin käsityksen osoittaminen vääräksi edellyttää, että tuleva
eduskunta kieltäytyy luovuttamasta lisää valtaa euroalueen päättäjille. Myöntyvyyspolitiikan
lopettaminen ei tule olemaan helppoa. Suomen itsenäisyyden ehdottomana
edellytyksenä oleva talouspoliittinen itsemääräämisoikeus on asetettu ja
asetetaan yhä selvemmin kyseenalaiseksi. Monet nykyiset suomalaiset päättäjät,
toisin kuin juhlissa muistettavat menneiden vuosien merkkihenkilöt aikanaan,
eivät pidä tätä ongelmallisena. Eräät pitävät sitä jopa tavoiteltavana.
Raimo Sailas: Ongelmat eivät ratkea toiveajattelulla –
TUT
Tutkimukseen ja tietoon nojaava julkisen talouden tehtävien
perinpohjainen arviointi ja veropolitiikan uudistaminen. Työeläkemaksujen
alentaminen. Työajan pidentäminen palkkoja nostamatta. Siinä Sailaksen lista
Suomen seuraavalle hallitukselle. Nyt Suomi tarvitsee tekoja, ei tyhjää puhetta.
Sailas Lännen Medialle: Euroalueen hajoaminen mahdollista
– ESS
Sailas pitää selvyytenä, että Kreikka ei selviä veloistaan.
Raimo Sailas sanoo Suomen olevan joutumassa tyhmien
kirjoihin – Verkkouutiset
Valtiovarainministeriön ex-valtiosihteeri ihmettelee
puolueiden hiljaisuutta tarvittavista säästöistä.
Bruce Oreck: Lopettakaa ruikutus ja ottakaa nämä viisi
askelta menestykseen – HS
Yhdysvaltain suurlähettiläs jättää tehtävänsä mutta ei
Suomea. Hän osti Helsingistä arvoasunnon, jonka remontti paljasti Suomen järjettömän
sääntöviidakon.
Suomen pääomakannan surkastuminen pilaa elintasomme –
Nordea
Suomen kansantalous tienaa reaalisesti asukasta kohti 13 %
vähemmän kuin vuonna 2007. Ei ihme, että monella sektorilla investoinnit ovat
pääoman kulumista pienemmät. Tällä menolla meidän talouskasvumme hyytyy niin,
että elintason lasku jatkuu pitkään ja hyvinvointivaltion rahoittaminen käy
mahdottomaksi.
Suomi: 2014 vahvistuu nollakasvun vuodeksi – Roger
Wessman / Marketnoze
Tilastokeskuksen tarkennetut luvut vahvistavat kuvaa siitä,
että tämä vuosi jää Suomen taloudelle nollakasvun vuodeksi – mutta ei
varsinaiseksi taantumavuodeksi. Taloutta on nostanut pieni piristyminen
viennissä. Taakkana on edelleen ripeästi supistuneet investoinnit.
Rinne tähtää oppositioon – Vesa
Varhee / TalSa
Puolueet ovat alkaneet julkistaa eduskuntavaaliohjelmiaan.
Kuten tavallista, ne sisältävät enemmän hurskaita toiveita kuin konkretiaa.
Sdp:n ohjelmasta voi kuitenkin kohtalaisen selkeästi lukea, että puheenjohtaja
Antti Rinne pyrkii välttämään paikkaa hallituksessa. Linjan esitykset ovat
omiaan pahentamaan Suomen talouden tilaa.
Rasistit ovat rasittavia – myös taloudelle – Jan
Hurri / TalSa
Ruotsi ei ole suinkaan ainoa Euroopan maa, jossa
protestipuolue panee politiikan mullin mallin, sillä protestipuolueiden
kannatus kasvaa kautta EU-maiden. Tyytymättömyys vaihtelee maittain, mutta yksi
protestipuolueita yhdistävä piirre on halu rajoittaa maahanmuuttoa tai
suoranainen rasismi. Euroopan talous tarvitsee enemmän maahanmuuttajia kuin
rasisteja.
Jörn Donner haukkuu hallituksen ja Linnan juhlien
kunniamerkit – HS
Suomalaisten luottamus EU:hun on vahvistunut – HS
AP-Raati: Rahat osakkeisiin – Arvopaperi
Suomen Pankki elvytysrintamassa – entä Suomi? – Timo
Harakka
EKP on AfD:n vanki – Henri
Myllyniemi / US
Riippuvuuspäivä ja Suomen neljä tietä – Jukka
Hankamäki