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Thursday, December 25

25th Dec - China eases

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How can Europe escape recession in 2015?Bruegel
Europe’s New Year’s resolution should be to implement policies to reduce conflicts in neighboring countries, and to increase growth and jobs

Kohl’s EuroBruegel
The great challenge today is to undo the legacy of Kohl’s rhetoric. Breaking up the euro is too costly. Thus the task is to weaken the ties that bind while preserving the peace and unity

Marco Buti: Lacklustre investment in the Eurozone: The policy response vox
Weak investment is a key macroeconomic problem in the Eurozone, and the new European Commission has proposed an ‘Investment Plan’ to complement existing policy initiatives. In this column, the Commission’s Chief Economist explains the key rationale behind the Investment Plan.

Joschka Fischer: Europe’s Make-or-Break YearProject Syndicate
It is no exaggeration to say that the EU is currently both internally and externally threatened by reactionary nationalism, which is why the next euro crisis will come in the form of a political crisis. So why are Europe's leaders still not willing to change their policies, which quite obviously have made a bad situation worse?

Why the Russian oil crash could threaten Putin with a palace coupThe Guardian
With a growing economic crisis and less money to share among the oligarchs, there is talk of splits in the Kremlin elite that could undermine the president’s power

Ruble Defense Cuts Russian Reserves by $15.7 Billion in WeekBB
The reserves fell to $398.9 billion in the week through Dec. 19, a 22 percent drop from January

Ruble Rallies 34% After Biggest Russian Intervention In 5 YearsZH

Is Italy becoming the Eurozone’s most anti-euro country?Open Europe
A growing number of political parties in Italy are publicly voicing opposition to the euro, and a growing number of Italians think the single currency is bad for their country. Will Matteo Renzi be forced to adopt a tougher anti-austerity stance in Europe to avoid losing voters to the anti-euro camp at home?

Greece to the Eurozone’s RescueBruegel
Today, Greece offers an opportunity to modestly test the eurozone’s pressure points

Greek clash with the Eurozone would be like a self-devouring OuroborosTradingFloor
Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras has failed to win enough backing today for his nominee for President. This brings Greece a step closer to early elections, and a likely victory by the anti-austerity party Syriza. So, on December 29, if the voting for a new President tips Greece into new elections, be prepared to liquidate Greek assets.

Greek PM offers 2015 election once bailout talks completeReuters

Spain Takes a Giant Step Backward, Towards Its Dark PastWolf Street

The dangerous ambitions of the European Central BankPaul De Grauwe
It is important that the ECB reduces its ambition to rule the politicians. Failure to do so will greatly harm the ECB.

ECB QE. To mutualise or not?Tony Yates
A choice about whether the ECB chooses to put its own balance sheet at risk in the event that purchases of member state sovereign debt imply losses.  Or whether to delegate the task of purchase to member central banks.

Combatting Eurozone deflation: QE for the peoplevox
Eurozone deflation is likely to become reality when the annual inflation figure for 2014 is announced in January. This column argues that the ECB should develop a strategy that works in the Eurozone’s unique financial setting, instead of following the Fed’s lead. The author proposes that the ECB should pursue ‘quantitative easing for the people’, such as sending each adult citizen a €500 cheque.

Asked and Answered. Mostly.Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
Final result is data dependent, but nothing at the moment is dissuading the Fed from their intention to hike rates in the middle of 2015.

Stephen S. Roach: The Fed Sets Another TrapProject Syndicate
The US Federal Reserve is headed down a familiar – and highly dangerous – path. Steeped in denial over its past mistakes, the Fed is pursuing the same incremental policy approach that helped set the stage for the financial crisis of 2008-2009.

Yellen’s First Year at Fed: A Remarkably Steady CourseNYT

Fed Tightening On Deck After Q3 GDP Soars To 5% On Revisions, Highest Since 2003 – ZH
Here Is The Reason For The "Surge" In Q3 GDP – ZH
U.S. economy grew in Q3 at a rate of 5%, the fastest in more than a decade – WaPo
Q3 GDP Revised Up to 5.0% - Calculated Risk
UMich Consumer Confidence Near 8-Year High, Inflation Expectations Hit 4-Year Lows – ZH

China Said to Plan Waiving Reserve Requirement for Some Deposits – BB
China to Ease Rules to Boost Lending – WSJ
Beijing Eases Again, Sets Non-Bank Deposit Reserve To Zero – ZH
China Stocks Rise Most in Three Weeks as Machinery Shares Surge – BB
Japan 10-Year Yield Falls to Record; Topix Declines as Yen Gains – BB

If Everyone Agrees, What Could Go Wrong?Marc to Market
The most important events in 2014 were not anticipated.

Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2014Calculated Risk
Ten Economic Questions for 2015Calculated Risk

Global View: Climate Change in PerspectiveBB

QuickTake: Watching for BubblesBB

QuickTake: The Volcker RuleBB
How a Simple Idea to Rein In Banks Got Supersized

Five Interesting Posts to Whet Your Political Economy AppetiteMarc to Market

Will Basel III work?vox
Banking has recently proven much more fragile than expected. This column argues that the Basel III regulatory response overlooks the interactions between different kinds of prudential policies, and the link between prudential policy and competition policy. Capital and liquidity requirements are partially substitutable, so an increase in one requirement should generally be accompanied by a decrease in the other. Increased competitive pressure calls for tighter solvency requirements, whereas increased disclosure requirements or the introduction of public signals may require tighter liquidity requirements.

My macro toolkitScott Sumner

A proof of the need for fiscal policy to escape the liquidity trapWorthwhile

John Cohcrane: An Autopsy for the KeynesiansWSJ
We were warned that the 2013 sequester meant a recession. Instead, unemployment came down faster than expected.

Commie commie commie commie commie K-KeynesianNoah Smith
I suspect that much of the motivation for John Cochrane to write this latest blast comes from his ongoing personal feud with Paul Krugman… an article which has a few good points buried deep inside it, but which is mostly wrong.

Botching the Keynesian AutopsyCullen Roche
Cochrane says that Keynesian ideas have failed since the crisis.  He goes on to cite a series of remarkably weak strawman arguments.

The gullible economistFrances Coppola
I think John Cochrane has lost his marbles. Or maybe his dispute with Paul Krugman has blown his brains. Anyway, he has written one of the worst op-eds I have ever seen.

Tutkimus sen todisti – leijonanosa karsastaa pakkoruotsiaPS

SDP leikkaamassa pienituloisten verotusta?Henri Myllyniemi / US

Lahjonta-aikeistaan on EU:ssa syytä kertoa itse poliisilleHenri Myllyniemi / US

Mutinaa talouden shokeista ja joustotarpeesta – kummastelua psykologisista syistä joustotarpeesta luopumiselleTyhmyri

Poliittinen kaaosHenri Myllyniemi / US
Euromaiden politiikasta on tulossa suunnatonta * Kreikassa ennennäkemätön poliittinen teatteri

Perintövero, sukupolvenvaihdokset ja uutisointiValtteri Aaltonen / US

Suomelle irlantilaisia opetuksia?Peter Nyberg
Löytyykö Suomesta aivan lähiaikoina päättäjiä joiden sanoihin ja tekoihin luotetaan kyllin paljon ja kauan tällaisen matokuurin onnistuneeksi toteuttamiseksi?