W/E: Weekly Support (updated)
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EUROPE
Germany Has Locked Up Key Positions at EU
Institutions
EPP
Takes Revenge for Moscovici's Appointment – euinside
The new/old
flexibility of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) of the EU is already a fact. It
was applied by the new European Commission when it presented its opinions on
the budgetary plans of the euro area member states
Office
of Financial Research 2014 Annual Report – UK
Treasury
SWEDEN
Outlook 2015:
Swedish Bond Returns
– Nordea
In the wake
of aggressive policy easing, falling inflation and lower yields globally,
Swedish fixed income have recorded a massive performance so far in 2014.
Likely
Unlikelies 2015: the Swedish housing market goes from boom to bust – Nordea
A Swedish
housing market collapse has been a prominent risk scenario for a while. The
consensus seems to be that a correction of the Swedish housing market is more a
matter of when, than if. If the most recent tightening of loan conditions is
enough to trigger a drop in house prices, the market reaction is likely to be
both large and violent.
RUSSIA
Sinking
rouble puts debt squeeze on Russia Inc – Reuters
Most of Russia’s external debt is owed by the
country’s banks and corporates. About $138 bln comes due in the next eighteen
months. With the currency down 40 percent against the dollar this year, that
will put a major strain on enterprises’ cashflows. Expect the state to step in.
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
The
ECB’s Balance Sheet, if needed – Bruegel
The ECB has
become a safety net for dealing with near-insolvency conditions
What
Analysts Are Saying About The ECB's Big Decision Tomorrow – BI
ECB
preview - ECB's timeline is tricky - isn't it? – Danske
Bank
Without
Economic Reforms, Draghi's Easy Money Policy Is Powerless – BB
When
Will the ECB Move on Monetary Stimulus? – PIIE
Bundesbank
chief says manipulating currencies is "dangerous" – Reuters
5 Things
to Watch in the ECB’s December Meeting – WSJ
Has the
CBPP3 inadvertently created a stigma on euro area covered bonds? – Nordea
ECB Seen
Triggering 50% Jump in Asset-Backed Bond Sales – BB
Euro
area: Inflation to fall to zero – Nordea
With the
latest edition of the Economic Outlook we also updated our forecasts for the
Euro area. Not so much in terms of growth but for inflation that we now expect
to average just 0.3% y/y next year with a clear risk of several negative
monthly readings. A lower import bill supports real income and is good for
growth. However, given how low inflation and inflation expectations are, we don’t
expect the ECB to look just through it.
MACRO NUMBERS
Volume of
retail trade up by 0.4% in euro area – Eurostat
Higher euro
retail sales in October, we look for further improvements – Danske
Bank
Euro area
services PMI decline in November – TradingFloor
U.K. November Services Growth
Accelerates More Than Forecast – BB
UNITED STATES
MACRO NUMBERS
US Labour
Market: improvement to continue – Danske
Bank
US Services
PMI Tumbles For 5th Month As "Domestic Demand Weakens" – ZH
ISM
Services Surges To 4th Highest On Record (As Services PMI Plummets) – ZH
ISM Non-Manufacturing
increased to 59.3% in November – Calculated
Risk
ISM
Services Rebounds – Bespoke
ASIA
Kenneth
Rogoff: Shinzo Abe’s recent policy decisions – to increase monetary stimulus
dramatically, to postpone a consumption-tax increase, and to call a snap election
in mid-December – have returned Japan to the forefront of an intense
policy debate. The question is simple: How can aging advanced economies revive
growth after a financial crisis?
BOJ
Beat: Harvard’s Rogoff Backs Kuroda on Easing – WSJ
OTHER
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: Fed’s Fischer, Dudley Have Their Eyes on Return to Normal * Fed’s Fischer: Decisions on Rates
Remain Data-Driven * NY Fed Dudley Says No Revolving Door At His Bank * Brazil’s Central Bank Seen Raising Benchmark
Rate Again * Euro Hits Two-Year Low
Daily
Macro – WSJ
Services-sector
purchasing managers’ indexes have arrived in the wake of the manufacturing PMIs
released earlier in the week, and they really do present a mixed bag.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Nordea
Morning – Nordea
FI
Eye-Opener: Higher yields but only for a while – Nordea
Core bond
yields continue higher – more upside left today. Oil prices show some signs of
stabilizing. Equities rebound. Fed close to changing its guidance. Here we go
again – government shutdown risks in the US. Pace of economic data releases
picking up. German 5-year auction and Italian buybacks.
Dollar Rolls
On – Marc to Market
US Open – ZH
Market-Boosting
Disappointing Economic News Courtesy Of Euroarea's Service PMIs
Daily
Shot: What's next, Putin? TradingFloor
The Russian
ruble has gone into free-fall, dropping 6% against the dollar by mid-afternoon
yesterday as panic took hold.
From the
floor: Aussie slumps, Draghi pumps? – TradingFloor
AUD slump
dominating the Asian session and speculation growing that Mario Draghi might
actually pull the trigger on quantitative easing as early as tomorrow.
Oil
Market Meets Minsky
– Marc
to Market
Central
bank policy: When abnormal is normal – TradingFloor
Most
countries have experienced slower GDP growth since the financial crisis, and
monetary policy may never be “normal” again. Meanwhile the five G7 central
banks will come under heavy scrutiny next year. But it appears that regardless
of what central banks try to do, the real key to the nature of any recovery is
coloured by the politics of the day and the timing of the next election.
Macro
Digest: ECB on brink of big mistake as Fed flunks inflation test – TradingFloor
The
half-blind floundering and ineptitude of our policymakers is once again on
public display. The Fed has done well in job creation but has failed the
inflation test miserably. The ECB, meanwhile, is about to launch the biggest
mistake in its history – QE for Europe. Why can't they understand that micro will
work where macro won't?
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Draghin on aika jyrätä saksalaiset | Euroalueen
tuottajahinnat laskivat | USA:n rakennusinvestoinnit selvässä nousussa
Venäjästä töpseli irti? – Juhani
Huopainen / US
Antaa yrittäjien yrittää – Laura
Huhtasaari / US
Jälkikeynesiläisyyden irtaantuminen valtavirrasta ja
viimeaikaisen keskustelun tolkuttomuus – Raha
ja talous