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Wednesday, December 3

3rd Dec - ECB fever rising

Previously on MoreLiver’s: 

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In Brussels, Germany Seen Calling the ShotsWSJ
Germany Has Locked Up Key Positions at EU Institutions

Why Yields in Europe Just Keep FallingWSJ

EPP Takes Revenge for Moscovici's Appointmenteuinside
The new/old flexibility of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) of the EU is already a fact. It was applied by the new European Commission when it presented its opinions on the budgetary plans of the euro area member states

Office of Financial Research 2014 Annual ReportUK Treasury

Sweden: Government crisisDanske Bank

Outlook 2015: Swedish Bond ReturnsNordea
In the wake of aggressive policy easing, falling inflation and lower yields globally, Swedish fixed income have recorded a massive performance so far in 2014.

Likely Unlikelies 2015: the Swedish housing market goes from boom to bustNordea
A Swedish housing market collapse has been a prominent risk scenario for a while. The consensus seems to be that a correction of the Swedish housing market is more a matter of when, than if. If the most recent tightening of loan conditions is enough to trigger a drop in house prices, the market reaction is likely to be both large and violent.

Russia: worsened commodity market outlook hits economy and RUBNordea

Sinking rouble puts debt squeeze on Russia IncReuters
Most of Russia’s external debt is owed by the country’s banks and corporates. About $138 bln comes due in the next eighteen months. With the currency down 40 percent against the dollar this year, that will put a major strain on enterprises’ cashflows. Expect the state to step in.

The ECB’s Balance Sheet, if neededBruegel
The ECB has become a safety net for dealing with near-insolvency conditions

What Analysts Are Saying About The ECB's Big Decision TomorrowBI

ECB preview - ECB's timeline is tricky - isn't it?Danske Bank

Without Economic Reforms, Draghi's Easy Money Policy Is PowerlessBB

When Will the ECB Move on Monetary Stimulus?PIIE

Bundesbank chief says manipulating currencies is "dangerous"Reuters

5 Things to Watch in the ECB’s December MeetingWSJ

Has the CBPP3 inadvertently created a stigma on euro area covered bonds?Nordea

ECB Seen Triggering 50% Jump in Asset-Backed Bond SalesBB

Euro area: Inflation to fall to zeroNordea
With the latest edition of the Economic Outlook we also updated our forecasts for the Euro area. Not so much in terms of growth but for inflation that we now expect to average just 0.3% y/y next year with a clear risk of several negative monthly readings. A lower import bill supports real income and is good for growth. However, given how low inflation and inflation expectations are, we don’t expect the ECB to look just through it.

Volume of retail trade up by 0.4% in euro area – Eurostat
Higher euro retail sales in October, we look for further improvements – Danske Bank
Euro area services PMI decline in November – TradingFloor
U.K. November Services Growth Accelerates More Than Forecast – BB

US Labour Market: improvement to continue – Danske Bank
US Services PMI Tumbles For 5th Month As "Domestic Demand Weakens" – ZH
ISM Services Surges To 4th Highest On Record (As Services PMI Plummets) – ZH
ISM Non-Manufacturing increased to 59.3% in November – Calculated Risk
ISM Services Rebounds – Bespoke
Service Industries in U.S. Expand at Faster Pace Than Projected – BB

Can Japan Reboot?Project Syndicate
Kenneth Rogoff: Shinzo Abe’s recent policy decisions – to increase monetary stimulus dramatically, to postpone a consumption-tax increase, and to call a snap election in mid-December – have returned Japan to the forefront of an intense policy debate. The question is simple: How can aging advanced economies revive growth after a financial crisis?

BOJ Beat: Harvard’s Rogoff Backs Kuroda on Easing WSJ

How might a China slowdown affect the world?Michael Pettis

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Fed’s Fischer, Dudley Have Their Eyes on Return to Normal * Fed’s Fischer: Decisions on Rates Remain Data-Driven * NY Fed Dudley Says No Revolving Door At His Bank * Brazil’s Central Bank Seen Raising Benchmark Rate Again * Euro Hits Two-Year Low

Daily MacroWSJ
Services-sector purchasing managers’ indexes have arrived in the wake of the manufacturing PMIs released earlier in the week, and they really do present a mixed bag.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Nordea MorningNordea

FI Eye-Opener: Higher yields but only for a whileNordea
Core bond yields continue higher – more upside left today. Oil prices show some signs of stabilizing. Equities rebound. Fed close to changing its guidance. Here we go again – government shutdown risks in the US. Pace of economic data releases picking up. German 5-year auction and Italian buybacks.

Dollar Rolls OnMarc to Market

Market-Boosting Disappointing Economic News Courtesy Of Euroarea's Service PMIs

Daily Shot: What's next, Putin?  TradingFloor
The Russian ruble has gone into free-fall, dropping 6% against the dollar by mid-afternoon yesterday as panic took hold.

From the floor: Aussie slumps, Draghi pumps?TradingFloor
AUD slump dominating the Asian session and speculation growing that Mario Draghi might actually pull the trigger on quantitative easing as early as tomorrow.

Oil Market Meets MinskyMarc to Market

Central bank policy: When abnormal is normalTradingFloor
Most countries have experienced slower GDP growth since the financial crisis, and monetary policy may never be “normal” again. Meanwhile the five G7 central banks will come under heavy scrutiny next year. But it appears that regardless of what central banks try to do, the real key to the nature of any recovery is coloured by the politics of the day and the timing of the next election.

Macro Digest: ECB on brink of big mistake as Fed flunks inflation testTradingFloor
The half-blind floundering and ineptitude of our policymakers is once again on public display. The Fed has done well in job creation but has failed the inflation test miserably. The ECB, meanwhile, is about to launch the biggest mistake in its history – QE for Europe. Why can't they understand that micro will work where macro won't?

Draghin on aika jyrätä saksalaiset | Euroalueen tuottajahinnat laskivat | USA:n rakennusinvestoinnit selvässä nousussa

Venäjästä töpseli irti?Juhani Huopainen / US

Antaa yrittäjien yrittääLaura Huhtasaari / US

Jälkikeynesiläisyyden irtaantuminen valtavirrasta ja viimeaikaisen keskustelun tolkuttomuusRaha ja talous