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EUROPE
Riksbank
Critic Ohlsson Named Deputy Amid Deflation Struggle – BB
Ohlsson,
who has criticized the Riksbank for focusing too much on financial stability,
was named deputy governor as the Swedish central bank struggles to meet its
inflation target.
Consensus
Builds Against Eurozone’s ‘Hardball’ Strategy – WSJ
RUSSIA
Hollande
Floats Russian Sanctions Relief in EU Split – BB
Russia's parliament rushes through bill
boosting banking capital – Reuters
Russia’s crisis is also a huge opportunity
– TradingFloor
Russian economy set to dive deep in
2015 – Danske
Bank
Q&A on
the Russian crisis – Nordea
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB
considers making weaker euro zone states bear more quantitative easing risk – Reuters
While the
idea may help overcome opposition in Germany, which is worried that fresh money
printing could encourage reckless spending and leave it to pick up the tab,
critics will argue that any such conditions curtail its scope and impact.
Peter
Praet: Is the ECB Doing Enough? – Project
Syndicate
The ECB has
implemented a series of measures in response to economic sluggishness and
financial trepidations in the euro area. Tentative evidence suggests that the
measures are delivering tangible benefits to the European economy, and the ECB
still has plenty of weapons in its arsenal should they prove necessary.
Euro
inflation set to decline to -0.5% and remain negative until Q4 15 – Danske
Bank
The
continued decline in the oil price should result in negative euro inflation in
December and we now forecast it will remain negative until Q4 15. This implies
that average inflation should also be negative at -0.1% in 2015 (revised down from
0.4%).
30% of
the Euro Area HICP basket is now in outright deflation – Bruegel
While
inflation over a 10 year horizon was still at 1.8% in December 2013, the latest
expectations revise this number downward to 1.5
What
Trichet told Spanish prime minister in an Aug 2011 letter – ECB
ASIA
The BoJ
kept monetary policy unchanged at the last meeting this year. This was widely
expected as the bank has just expanded its huge asset purchase plan 1½ months
ago and the effects have yet to be seen. Looking into 2015 the BoJ is likely to
become more dovish as Premier Abe will replace two retiring members with
successors that share his reflationary view.
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Bank of
Japan downplays Oil-Deflation Worries—For Now * Fed Gives Banks More Time to
Sell Private-Equity, Hedge Fund Stakes * BOJ Stands Pat on Policy * ECB’s New
Member Could Support Bond Buying
Daily
Macro – WSJ
In case
there were any doubts about the power of the Fed and the market’s obsession
with it, the past two days have wiped those away. After all the anxiety that
preceded the Fed’s statement on Wednesday afternoon, the DJIA is now up more
than 700 points in two days. And all because of the words “patient” and
“considerable time.”
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
FI
Eye-Opener: Up – Nordea
Yesterday: EUR
up, RUB up, equities up, rates up. No Christmas present from the BoJ. Chinese
statisticians found some more GDP. Today: no bond supply, few data.
The
Santa Rally Underpins the Dollar – Marc
to Market
In China, short-term rates are on the rise,
even as expectations are for some variant of easing. While this could deflate
the country's credit bubble, it could also inhibit growth. Elsewhere, Nigerian
markets collapsed as currency trading was curbed, and crude oil implied
volatility remains elevated as traders pay outsize premiums for oil puts.
US Open – ZH
Futures
Continue Rising As Illiquid Market Anticipates More Volatility In Today's
Quad-Witching
FX
Update: USD outshone by commodity currencies – TradingFloor
The US
dollar is trading stronger versus the euro, Swiss franc and the Japanese yen
after the BoJ meeting overnight, but sterling and the commodity currencies are
even stronger at the moment. It is time for the greenback to show who’s boss as
we head into year-end?
From the
floor: 'Big winner' energy rally can continue – TradingFloor
OTHER
Financial
forecast update: No snow but more plenty of volatility around Christmas – Nordea
Even though
we expect long German yields to reverse course early next, yields have more
room to fall in the final weeks of this year. We continue to expect the Fed to
start hiking rates in June 2015 and the ECB to deliver QE in early 2015. More
volatility will be in store in the coming weeks.
FX
forecast update: Santa bringing volatility instead of presents – Nordea
The end of
the year has provided plenty of volatility, especially in Scandis. While global
oil price developments recently led us to revise our EUR/NOK forecasts, we see few reasons to
change our other FX forecasts for now. While we see negative krona risks
stemming from the Riksbank, this is to some extent mitigated by the current
valuation of the SEK. We remain USD bulls.
Oil
price to bottom when non-OPEC output rise halts – déjà vu #2 – Danske
Bank
FINNISH
Venäjä, Venäjä, Venäjä – antaisivat vain kellua – Tyhmyri
Talouspuhetta julkisesta keskustelusta ja ensi vuoden
näkymistä – Raha
ja Talous
Suomi: Julkisen talouden velkaantuminen jatkuu – Nordea
Julkisen talouden velanottotarve pysyy suurena. Valtion ja
kuntien rahoitusalijäämä on vuositasolla runsaat 8 miljardia euroa.
Tie helvettiin on päällystetty hyvillä euroilla – Libera
Onko Suomen etu todellakin sama kuin mitä muut euromaat
tavoittelevat? Voisiko Suomi kansakuntana saavuttaa paremman lopputuloksen
kohdentamalla varansa toisella tavalla?
Tie helvettiin on päällystetty hyvillä euroilla – TE
Eurokriisi syntyi Saksan säästöpankkien ja ranskalaisten
suurpankkien ylilyönneistä – TE