14th Jan - Copper joins the slump club

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Tuesday: More Greece & ECB

Monday: Waiting for Greece and ECB

W/E: Linkfest

W/E: Weekly Support

 

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EUROPE

Euro area outlook for 2015 – Danske Bank

Deflation but the good kind

Fiscal flexibility unlikely to help those who wanted it most – Open Europe

Norway to Tackle Oil Slump Via Krone Buffer, Government Says – BB

Finland Risks Funding Shortfall as Cash Buffers Depleted – BB

Russia to Dip Into Wealth Fund as Ruble Crisis Pressures Economy – BB

  ITALY

Italy’s President Leaves Renzi Down One Ally by Resigning – BB

Italy's President Napolitano Resigns: What Happens Next – ZH

New Italian Political Drama is about to Begin – Marc to Market

  GREECE

Four Greek economy experts evaluate Syriza΄s programme – Press project

Why Greece needs a Syriza win – Philippe Legrain

Let us hope for a Syriza victory – Simon Wren-Lewis

Analysis: Greek debt relief – FT

Finland’s PM says he will reject any Greek debt forgiveness – FT

Greece May Get Debt Extension, Rehn Says in Urging Unity – BB

  EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

Veksler: First it was SMP, then OMT, and finally it could be OMG – TradingFloor

The ECJ hands down its ruling today on the ECB outright monetary transactions * A negative ECJ ruling may mean the ECB has to rein in its quantitative easing * There will be rethinking and strategy adjustment if the ruling goes the wrong way

McKegg: What happens if the ECB doesn’t deliver? – TradingFloor

Energy pushed the headline HICP rate into the red on an annual basis in December * But the ECB seems stuck with the headline 2% inflation rate as its target * To give itself room to move, the ECB may say it's following the lead of other central banks, by concentrating on core HICP rather than the headline rate

ECB moves towards country-thinking – Nordea

The new voting rotation scheme and the publishing of accounts from monetary policy discussions will not improve transparency within the ECB. The voting rotation increases the divide between big and small countries and moves ECB closer to other EU organs. Most likely voting will be used sparingly, if at all, in the future and most important discussions will be kept outside official meetings.

Opinion: The winners from Draghi’s QE? America and Britain – MarketWatch

The ECB’s (Losing) Battle Against Deflation – WSJ

Draghi Says ECB Determined to Fulfill Mandate, Zeit Reports – BB

Whatever it takes or whatever it can get away with? – Reuters

  ECJ press release on OMT – ECJ

ECJ full document – ECJ

ECB's OMT "May Be Legal" But Must Meet Conditions – ZH

ECJ: OMT OK (ish) – FT

EU court adviser paves way for ECB bond-buying – Reuters

Draghi Buoyed as EU Court Aide Supports 2012 Bond-Buy Plan – BB

5 Takeaways From the ECJ’s Thumbs-Up for ‘Whatever It Takes’ – WSJ

Q&A: the ECJ decision and QE – FT

ECJ validates bond buying but puts German Court in tough position – Open Europe

ECJ: ECB bond-buying legal “in principle”, but sets conditions – Open Europe

UNITED STATES

  RETAIL SALES

Retail sales drop biggest in 11 months, but seen as a blip – Reuters

Retail Sales decreased 0.9% in December – Calculated Risk

US Retail Sales Drop Most Since June 2012 (And Don't Blame Gas Prices) – ZH

U.S. Retail Sales Down Sharply, Likely Cuts to Growth Forecasts Ahead – BB

Stock Futures Whacked After ‘Terrible Miss’ for Retail Sales – WSJ

Dow Drops 600 Points In 24 Hours As 30Y Yield Crashes To Record Low – ZH

ASIA

Morgan Stanley: Plunging Oil Prices, Rising Debt Leaves Asia Staring at Deflation – BB

REGULARS

Daily Central Banks – WSJ

Blackstone’s Take: Court Decision Paves Way for ECB Bond Buys * Fed’s Kocherlakota: 2015 Fed Rate Rise Would Be A Bad Idea * Weakness Overseas May Delay Fed Rate Increase, World Bank Says * ECJ Adviser Says ECB Can Buy Eurozone Government Debt * Bank of England’s Mark Carney Joins Fed in Nudging European Central Bank to Action

Daily Macro – WSJ

Markets are jittery as the big swings in U.S. stocks on Tuesday and continued falls in the price of oil left investors in Asia and Europe nervous about the general state of financial unease. What’s striking, though, is that it is mostly driven by concerns about the rest of the world rather than the U.S. economy.

Danske Daily – Danske Bank

Eye-Opener – Nordea

The ECB’s OMT in the limelight today Strong demand for new bonds from Portugal GBP resilient to inflation disappointment

Preliminary ECJ Decision Gives ECB Broad Discretion, Euro Slips – Marc to Market

Daily Shot – TradingFloor

With local and central government revenues falling in China, constructing activity is slowing. This has lead to sharp declines in industrial metal prices while precious metals continue to surge. Meanwhile, US consumer and small business continues to improve, with the former aided significantly by cheap oil.

US Open – ZH

Copper Plummets; Euro Plunges To 9 Year Low On Euro-Court's OMT Ruling, Futures Down

FX Update: Risk-off boosts JPY and punishes AUD – TradingFloor

Yen rallies on improved current account balance figures * USD flat against the major European currencies * Event risk of the day are US retail figures

 

From the floor – TradingFloor

OTHER

Global Economic Prospects 1/2015: Having fiscal space and using it – World Bank

The World Bank’s Outlook In Charts – WSJ

World Bank Cuts Global Growth Outlook With U.S. Lone Bright Spot – BB

FINNISH

Aamukatsaus – Nordea

EKP ottaa askeleen kohti kansallista ajattelua | Euroopan unionin tuomioistuin antaa lausunnon EKP:n toimista | Ruotsin inflaatio yllätti yläkanttiin

Jan Hurri: EKP:n setelisingosta on tulossa tussahdus – TalSa

Rahoitusmarkkinoiden odotukset EKP:n kaavailemien valtionlainaostojen mitoista ja tehosta ovat jo kasvaneet niin suuriksi, että EKP:n voi olla vaikea vastata odotuksiin kuin pettymyksellä. Setelisingon tehoa heikentää esimerkiksi kiistakysymys, ovatko EKP:n valtionlainaostot edes laillisia. Keskiviikko tuonee tähän kiistakysymykseen lisävalaisua.

Viinanen jyrähtää: "Kulutamme hömppään" – IL

Professorit: Hallitus antanut työttömyydestä harhaanjohtavan kuvan – IL

Viisi professoria: Valtiovarainministeriön työryhmällä on "vertailukelvottomia" tietoja työmarkkinaongelmista.

Myynti laski marraskuussa kaikilla kaupan toimialoilla – Tilastokeskus

Professori: Vain luova tuho nostaa Suomen suosta – HS

Elinkeinoelämän tutkimuslaitoksen tutkimusjohtaja peräänkuuluttaa markkinatalouden tärkeyttä

FT: Voiko Kreikan velkoja helpottaa ilman alaskirjauksia? – PS

EK tuskastui yrityssääntelyyn: vähemmän puhetta, enemmän toimintaa – KL

Eduskuntavaalien jälkeen luotavan hallituksen täytyy sitoutua määrällisiin tavoitteisiin sääntelyn purkamisessa, vaatii EK:n uusi PK-johtaja Jyrki Hollmén.

"Euroalue ajautumassa perustuslailliseen kriisiin" – TalSa

Saksalaisen Ifo-insituutin johtaja Hans-Werner Sinn pitää EU-tuomioistuimen tämänpäiväistä EKP-päätöstä hyvin ongelmallisena.

Suomi 20 vuotta EU:ssa – Eurobarometri – EC

Tänään julkaistu Eurobarometri ”Itävalta, Suomi ja Ruotsi: 20 vuotta EU:ssa” kertoo näissä kolmessa maassa asuvien käsityksiä Euroopan unionista ja EU-jäsenyyden vaikutuksista 20 vuotta liittymisen jälkeen.

”Suomen lähihistorian mittavin itsepetos”: Onko Suomi Italian tiellä? – US

Kataisen hallituksen nelivuotinen talouden kasvuarvio on Suomen lähihistorian mittavin itsepetos, kirjoittaa entinen kansanedustaja Timo Kaunisto (kesk.) Puheenvuoron blogissaan. Taloustieteen professori Matti Virén uskoo, että tänä keväänä poliitikot eivät kykene kiertämään tosiasioita.

Vaalit ja miksi Suomen talous ei kasva – pari perushuomiota – Tyhmyri