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Friday, January 30

30th Jan - EZ deeper into deflation, mediocre US GDP

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Secular stagnation in the EurozoneVoxEU
Paul De Grauwe: Southern counties had accumulated current-account deficits and became debtors when the Crisis hit, whereas the northern ones became creditors. The burden of the adjustments has been borne almost exclusively by the debtor countries creating a deflationary bias. Suggested fiscal policy prescriptions are government investment programmes, to be implemented by northern countries (and in particular, Germany).

Deep Dive: Is EMU Irreversible or Not?Marc to Market

Is the DKK the new CHF?FT

30Y German Bund Yield Plunges Under 1% - Record LowZH

EU Moves Toward Tougher Russia Sanctions as Greece Yields – BB
Russia's central bank goes dovish – Danske Bank
Bank Of Russia Surprises With Unexpected Rate Cut – ZH
Russian central bank makes surprise interest rate cut – Reuters

The troika saved banks and creditors – not Greece – Open Democracy
No, Greece does not 'need' a haircut – TradingFloor
Germany: Greek aid extension only makes sense if Athens upholds reforms – Reuters
Greece Shuns EU Bailout Cash Before Dijsselbloem Visit – BB
Greece really might leave the euroWaPo

The Euro-area loan developments are at a turning pointNordea
Both the bank lending survey and the euro area monetary indicators tell the same story: Credit conditions are improving and lending is beginning to pick up in the Euro area. The QE program will boost lending additionally beginning in March.

Draghi’s Asset-Backed Debt Revival Nowhere to Be Seen in JanuaryBB
Sales of the notes totaled 1.2 billion euros ($1.4 billion) in January, the least for any month since August 2011

Euro area annual inflation down to -0.6% - EC
Euro zone prices fall at record-equalling pace in January – Reuters
Euro inflation weakens furtherDanske Bank
Is the Eurozone Spiraling Into Deflation? – The Short Answer – WSJ
Eurozone Deflation Ties Post-Lehman Record, Worse Than Expected – ZH
Eurozone deflation: where does this leave quantitative easing? – The Guardian

Eurozone Consumer Prices Fell Sharply in January – WSJ

Italian unemployment drops sharply in December – TradingFloor

Are widening U.S. credit spreads warning of a peak in U.S. equities?Thomson Reuters

  Q4 GDP
Q4 and Annual 2014 GDP (Advance Estimate) – BEA
U.S. growth cools in fourth quarter, but consumer spending robust – Reuters
At A Glance: U.S. Fourth-Quarter GDPWSJ
US economy grew at 2.6 percent last quarter, below expectations – Vox
Q4 Annualized GDP Misses, Tumbles To 2.6% From 5.0% - ZH
Economy in U.S. Expanded Less Than Forecast in Fourth Quarter – BB
U.S. Economy Grew at 2.4% Rate in 2014, Best Since 2010 – NYT
BEA: Real GDP increased at 2.6% Annualized Rate in Q4 – Calculated Risk
U.S. economy grew at 2.6 percent pace in fourth quarter of 2014 – WaPo
US GDP rose 2.6% in Q4 driven by private consumption – TradingFloor

Japan: downward pressure on inflation, but growth recoveringDanske Bank

Australian Equities Are OversoldShort Side of Long

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: On an Important Data Day for the Fed, Look Out for Wages * Yellen Tells Senate Democrats U.S. Economy is Strong * Rosengren Says Fed Has Big Role to Play in Cybersecurity * Russia Cuts Interest Rates * Eurozone Consumer Prices Fell Sharply in January

Daily MacroWSJ
Falling eurozone prices – don’t call it deflation says the European Central Bank – remain a big worry for economists. Will they take hold and feed a pernicious vicious economic cycle that the single-currency region can’t escape? Even a relatively robust Germany, where unemployment is lower than it’s been in at least a quarter of a century, faces falling prices. On the other hand, Spain shows falling prices don’t need to be incompatible with growth.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Greek markets rebound German inflation plunges, pushing inflation expectations further down * Today’s ECI could be decisive for the Fed, and thus important for markets
 – Marc to Market

Daily ShotTradingFloor
ECB QE decision gets vindication from negative German CPI print * Green shoots of recovery start to sprout in Eurozone * Ruble weakness emerging again as Central Bank of Russia meeting looms

Treasury-Equity Reallocation Trade Pushes Futures Lower, 10 Year Rises To 1.72%

Deflationary Forces StrengthenMarc to Market

From the floorTradingFloor
Japan CPI print shows strong disinflationary trend * Chinese currency woes could see PBoC make a statement * US GDP report expected to signal a full recovery from the recession * Raw materials tumble down to a 12.5 year low * Translation error sends Belarussian bond yields soaring

Global: the USD liquidity elephant in the roomNordea
Why is it that, every time the Fed stops its money-printing programs, or initiates the end of such programs (the tapering process), global nominal activity eases, inflation expectations drop, the USD appreciates, volatility rises and long-term bond yields plummets? Could it be that the world is more dependent on abundant USD liquidity than commonly thought?

Myös Saksa päätyi pakkaskerhoon | USA:n työmarkkinoiden kustannusindeksi | Tanskan keskuspankki laski jälleen talletuskorkoa

Yksittäisistä maista suurin syyllinen eurokriisiin on – Saksa Tyhmyri

Ilmarinen: "Emme pääse Euroopan vauhtiin"YLE
Työeläkeyhtiö Ilmarisessa ollaan huolissaan Suomen taloustilanteesta. Sijoittajille Ilmarinen ennustaa hankalaa vuotta rajusti vaihtelevien osakekurssien ja matalien korkojen takia.

Suomi: Asuntojen alennusmyynti loppuu pian Nordea
Asuntojen jokavuotinen alennusmyynti on pian taas ohi. Hinnat ovat joulu- ja tammikuussa keskimäärin jopa pari prosenttia eli varainsiirtoveron verran matalammat kuin kesällä.

PS:n ajatuspaja lyttää EVA:n kaavailut maahanmuuton tuplaamisesta – PS

Suurten yritysten liikevaihto jouluk. -0,9% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Bruttokansantuote supistui 1,3 prosenttia vuonna 2013 – Tilastokeskus