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Monday, January 19

19th Jan - Denmark feels the Swiss pressure

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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A “Merkel Plan” for EuropeProject Syndicate
It is becoming possible, in political terms, to say that Europe's debtors have taken their punishment and have made their economies more competitive. What is now holding back these and other European economies is weak demand in the eurozone as a whole, which is why a modern version of the Marshall Plan is needed.

Fears of Capital Controls, Savings Confiscation Trigger Bank Runs in GreeceWolf Street

The Greek Time BombProject Syndicate
If the likely winner, the far-left Syriza party, insists on implementing its unsustainable spending program, rather than focusing on debt relief, the result could be disastrous for Greece and the eurozone.

Greece: Miles away from a done dealNordea
Greece will remain in the headlines long after the parliamentary elections on 25 January. At the very least, the negotiations between the next Greek government and the Troika are going to be long and hard, while even an accident happening cannot be excluded. Even though contagion risks have weakened, also broader markets remain vulnerable to renewed worries of a Grexit. Markets will have many more chances to worry about Greece in the coming months.

This Greek drama is more complex than the Antikythera MechanismTradingFloor
A Syriza-led government risks the country’s financial future * Greece is now classified as low grade “junk” and an emerging market * I won't dabble in Greek debt

Think in terms of policy regimes, not gestures – Scott Sumner
SNB – Post-Mortem – Bruce Krasting
Swiss Peg Removal: Did Anyone Win? – Mish’s
Sokrates and Friends in DavosBrad DeLong
Switzerland: QE Too – Krugman / NYT
Buiter, the SNB and the effective lower bound – FT
Swiss i-flation and the absurdities of negative rates – Polemic’s Pains
SNB, or Swiss Private Seigniorage Machine? – Tony Yates
End of the Swiss franc’s one-sided exchange rate band – voxeu

Denmark Goes NIRP-er; Slashes Rates To -20bps Amid Currency Peg Fears – ZH
Danish central bank slashes deposit rate – FT
Denmark Says It Has Tools to Defend Peg After Surprise CutBB
The Danish domino? – Tyler Cowen
Denmark’s Surprise Rate Cut – The Reactions – WSJ

Markets pricing in substantial QE operation by the ECB – Sober Look
What European QE Will Look Like, and What Happens if It Doesn’t Work – WSJ
Ireland Warns QE Won’t Work If Risks Not Shared – WSJ
ECB May Deliver $635 Billion to Steer Euro Away From Deflation – BB

The State of the Economy, in Eight ChartsWSJ

Will The Fed Take a Dovish Turn Next Week?Tim Duy
During normal times the Fed moves methodically if not ponderously. The current state of the economy gives them room to move as such. So I would not be surpised to see a fairly steady hand revealed in the next FOMC statement.

Chinese Stocks Crash Most Since Feb 2007ZH
Futures Limit-Down After Regulatory Crackdown On Margin-Trading

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Plunge in Chinese equities, jump in US Treasury yields, big week ahead. ECB meeting on Thursday - highlight of the week * 3-month Euribor rates projected to go negative * SEK and NOK rebounded

Market Bracing for a Big WeekMarc to Market

Daily ShotTradingFloor
Evidence continues to mount of the ECB's impending quantitative easing announcement, with a substantial QE programme now priced in. Anything but a "bazooka" announcement will send shivers through the markets, resulting in a volatility spike.

Chinese Stocks Crash As Financials Suffer Record Drop; Commodities Resume Decline; US Closed

FX UpdateTradingFloor
The market will continue to seek out near-term equilibrium and liquidity in CHF crosses this week, while we anticipate the arrival of ECB QE and whether the market has overpriced its effects in the run-up to this Thursday’s ECB meeting.

From the floorTradingFloor
Markets continue to reel from the SNB's surprise move last week, but the big story from the floor today comes out of China where regulators have cracked down on the country's new passion for margin lending. The move saw Chinese equities tumble by nearly 8% while securities firms such as Citic and Haitong declined by 10% – the maxim possible fall given China's exchange policies.

Suspicious Nonsense on Trade Agreements – Krugman / NYT
Europe Gets Cold Feet on “TTIP,” Americans Should Too – Wolf Street

Macro Take: SNB ripples continue into ECB and Greek decisionsTradingFloor
Kay Van-Petersen: SNB shockwave effects are far from over. Watch the bodies pile up, as different entities get the hit * Next up: the ECB on Thursday – will Draghi disappoint again? Or will we see the mother of all QEs? * After which: the Greeks go to the elections booths on Sunday. Will the “Exitonians” win? 

FX: Unsurprisingly surprisingNordea
ECB's QE expectations are high...or too high? The PMIs, out this week, matter no less than ECB for the EUR prospects.

FX Forecast UpdateDanske Bank
New tools, new regimes: ECB fuelling more EUR weakness, but SNB to curb CHF strength

Steen Jakobsen: Endgame for central bankersTradingFloor
The SNB's sudden abandonment of the Swiss franc's peg to the euro unleashed wave after wave of crushing volatility across the world's markets. If ostensibly "independent" central bankers can pull the rug from under the markets with such brutality, why should we trust them - or even listen to them?

Odotettu elvytyssuunnitelma selviää torstaina | Kiina julkistaa BKT-lukunsa | USA:n joulukuun pohjainflaatio odotettua vaisumpi

Valtionlainaostot ja yhteisvastuuRoger Wessman

Kreikan tulevalla hallituksella aikaa vääntää kättä eurostaYLE
Kriisivaltio Kreikalla on aikaa löytää rahoitusratkaisu, vaikka maan toinen hätäapupaketti umpeutuu jo kuukauden päästä sunnuntaina pidettävistä vaaleista. Syynä ovat maan lainat, joista merkittävimmät erääntyvät vasta kesäkuun lopussa. Asiantuntijat odottavat rahoitusneuvotteluista tiukkoja.

Shit happens – miksi rahapolitiikkaa eli valuuttajoustoja tarvitaan taloudessaTyhmyri

Talousongelmat eivät hellitä löyhällä rahapolitiikalla Peter Nyberg

Kirjoituksia ja esitelmiäRoger Wessman

Efektiivinen eurommeJuhani Huopainen