Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
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EUROPE
It is
becoming possible, in political terms, to say that Europe's debtors have taken their
punishment and have made their economies more competitive. What is now holding
back these and other European economies is weak demand in the eurozone as a
whole, which is why a modern version of the Marshall Plan is needed.
GREECE
The
Greek Time Bomb – Project
Syndicate
If the
likely winner, the far-left Syriza party, insists on implementing its
unsustainable spending program, rather than focusing on debt relief, the result
could be disastrous for Greece and the eurozone.
Greece will
remain in the headlines long after the parliamentary elections on 25 January.
At the very least, the negotiations between the next Greek government and the
Troika are going to be long and hard, while even an accident happening cannot
be excluded. Even though contagion risks have weakened, also broader markets
remain vulnerable to renewed worries of a Grexit. Markets will have many more
chances to worry about Greece in the coming months.
This
Greek drama is more complex than the Antikythera Mechanism – TradingFloor
A Syriza-led
government risks the country’s financial future * Greece is now classified as low grade “junk”
and an emerging market * I won't dabble in Greek debt
SWITZERLAND
Think in
terms of policy regimes, not gestures – Scott Sumner
SNB –
Post-Mortem – Bruce
Krasting
Swiss Peg
Removal: Did Anyone Win? – Mish’s
Sokrates
and Friends in Davos – Brad
DeLong
Switzerland:
QE Too – Krugman
/ NYT
Buiter, the
SNB and the effective lower bound – FT
Swiss i-flation
and the absurdities of negative rates – Polemic’s
Pains
SNB, or
Swiss Private Seigniorage Machine? – Tony
Yates
End of the
Swiss franc’s one-sided exchange rate band – voxeu
DENMARK
Denmark
Goes NIRP-er; Slashes Rates To -20bps Amid Currency Peg Fears – ZH
Danish
central bank slashes deposit rate – FT
Denmark Says It Has Tools to Defend Peg
After Surprise Cut – BB
The Danish
domino? – Tyler
Cowen
Denmark’s Surprise Rate Cut – The Reactions
– WSJ
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Markets pricing
in substantial QE operation by the ECB – Sober
Look
What
European QE Will Look Like, and What Happens if It Doesn’t Work – WSJ
Ireland Warns QE Won’t Work If Risks Not
Shared – WSJ
ECB May
Deliver $635 Billion to Steer Euro Away From Deflation – BB
UNITED STATES
The
State of the Economy, in Eight Charts – WSJ
Will The
Fed Take a Dovish Turn Next Week? – Tim
Duy
During
normal times the Fed moves methodically if not ponderously. The current state
of the economy gives them room to move as such. So I would not be surpised to
see a fairly steady hand revealed in the next FOMC statement.
ASIA
Chinese
Stocks Crash Most Since Feb 2007 – ZH
Futures
Limit-Down After Regulatory Crackdown On Margin-Trading
REGULARS
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Plunge in
Chinese equities, jump in US Treasury yields, big week ahead. ECB meeting on
Thursday - highlight of the week * 3-month Euribor rates projected to go
negative * SEK and NOK rebounded
Market
Bracing for a Big Week – Marc
to Market
Daily
Shot – TradingFloor
Evidence
continues to mount of the ECB's impending quantitative easing announcement,
with a substantial QE programme now priced in. Anything but a "bazooka"
announcement will send shivers through the markets, resulting in a volatility
spike.
US Open – ZH
Chinese
Stocks Crash As Financials Suffer Record Drop; Commodities Resume Decline; US
Closed
FX
Update – TradingFloor
The market
will continue to seek out near-term equilibrium and liquidity in CHF crosses
this week, while we anticipate the arrival of ECB QE and whether the market has
overpriced its effects in the run-up to this Thursday’s ECB meeting.
From the
floor – TradingFloor
Markets
continue to reel from the SNB's surprise move last week, but the big story from
the floor today comes out of China where regulators have cracked down on the
country's new passion for margin lending. The move saw Chinese equities tumble
by nearly 8% while securities firms such as Citic and Haitong declined by 10% –
the maxim possible fall given China's exchange policies.
OTHER
TRADE AGREEMENT
Suspicious
Nonsense on Trade Agreements – Krugman
/ NYT
Europe Gets Cold Feet on “TTIP,” Americans
Should Too – Wolf
Street
Macro
Take: SNB ripples continue into ECB and Greek decisions – TradingFloor
Kay
Van-Petersen: SNB shockwave effects are far from over. Watch the bodies pile
up, as different entities get the hit * Next up: the ECB on Thursday – will
Draghi disappoint again? Or will we see the mother of all QEs? * After which:
the Greeks go to the elections booths on Sunday. Will the “Exitonians”
win?
FX:
Unsurprisingly surprising – Nordea
ECB's QE
expectations are high...or too high? The PMIs, out this week, matter no less
than ECB for the EUR prospects.
FX
Forecast Update – Danske
Bank
New tools,
new regimes: ECB fuelling more EUR weakness, but SNB to curb CHF strength
Steen
Jakobsen: Endgame for central bankers – TradingFloor
The SNB's
sudden abandonment of the Swiss franc's peg to the euro unleashed wave after
wave of crushing volatility across the world's markets. If ostensibly "independent"
central bankers can pull the rug from under the markets with such brutality,
why should we trust them - or even listen to them?
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Odotettu elvytyssuunnitelma selviää torstaina | Kiina
julkistaa BKT-lukunsa | USA:n joulukuun pohjainflaatio odotettua vaisumpi
Valtionlainaostot ja yhteisvastuu – Roger
Wessman
Kreikan tulevalla hallituksella aikaa vääntää kättä
eurosta – YLE
Kriisivaltio Kreikalla on aikaa löytää rahoitusratkaisu,
vaikka maan toinen hätäapupaketti umpeutuu jo kuukauden päästä sunnuntaina
pidettävistä vaaleista. Syynä ovat maan lainat, joista merkittävimmät
erääntyvät vasta kesäkuun lopussa. Asiantuntijat odottavat
rahoitusneuvotteluista tiukkoja.
Shit happens – miksi rahapolitiikkaa eli valuuttajoustoja
tarvitaan taloudessa – Tyhmyri
Talousongelmat eivät hellitä löyhällä rahapolitiikalla –
Peter
Nyberg
Kirjoituksia ja esitelmiä – Roger Wessman
Efektiivinen euromme – Juhani
Huopainen