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EUROPE
What’s
the most fiscally responsible country in the developed world? – PBS
If only
Italy could magically eliminate its outstanding debt, which exceeds 130 percent
of GDP. Then Renzi would have the headroom to move Italy forward. Actually,
there is a quick and painless way for Italy to become debt free. Italy can
simply buy back all outstanding government debt and pay for these bonds with
commitments to larger future pension payments.
Jean-Claude
Juncker compares British membership of EU to doomed romance – The
Telegraph
EU
Commission president says people should not stay together if conditions aren’t
the same as when things started - the first time he has contemplated a British
exit
The
immediate reaction was that Brussels was looking for justifications to
start scaling back sanctions.
GREECE
Zoning
out – The
Economist
Why leaving
the euro would still be bad for both Greece and the currency area
Contrary to
the IFO institute, we conclude that German losses on both official and private
claims would be much higher if Greece exits the euro
SWITZERLAND
Jordan Says
Entire SNB Governing Board Supported Exiting Cap – BB
Oh
Switzerland, What Have You Done? – Frances
Coppola
Switzerland’s
problem isn’t an expensive currency but anemic consumption – FT
The cuckoo
clock chimes for the Swiss franc – Paul
Mason / Channel 4
Making
Sense of the Swiss Shock – Project
Syndicate
Central
Banks Don’t Need Financial Capital, but do Need Political Capital – Cullen
Roche
What does
the end of the Swiss Peg tell us about central banks? – Simon
Wren-Lewis
Two Cheers
for the Swiss National Bank – PIIE
Everyone
has to have a Swiss National Bank post – Long
and Variable
Could Swiss
Beat Greece Exiting The Euro Zone? – Econmatters
Francs,
Fear and Folly – Krugman
/ NYT
Paul
Krugman and the Swiss Movement – CEPR
Tough times
ahead for the Swiss economy – Sober
Look
On the
Instability of Unilateral Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes – David
Andolfatto
Gavyn
Davies: The Swiss currency bombshell – cause and effect – FT
George
Magnus: Abandonment of the peg is history repeating itself – FT
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Effective
Eurozone QE: Size matters more than risk-sharing – voxeu
The ECB may
soon launch QE. Two of Europe’s leading macroeconomists argue that QE is the
ECB’s last anti-deflation tool – it must not be sacrificed to political
expediency. The risk-sharing debate is secondary to the programme’s size and
duration – one example would be €60 billion per month for one year, or until
inflation expectations rose to near 2%. The ECB should also explain that no
matter how well the monetary part of the programme is designed, an accompanying
fiscal expansion is critical to QE’s effectiveness.
The ECJ
suggests OMT is compatible with the Treaty, but not with the Troika – Bruegel
The OMT
introduces explicit conditionality for the bond buying and it links the
decision of the Governing Council to continue or suspend the OMT to the
assessment of whether such conditionality is fulfilled.
ECB set
to bow to German pressure over QE – FT
Policy
makers in Frankfurt are expected to take the momentous
decision to embark on quantitative easing on Thursday, with the most likely
option at this stage for the ECB to force the 19 national central banks that
make up the eurozone to stand behind their own sovereign bonds.
Wolfgang
Münchau: Why the ECB should not water down a QE programme – FT
My plea
would be to start with a big figure now. Size matters
Eurozone
QE set to arrive at last this week, but with conditions – FT
Market
economists would prefer Mr Draghi to compromise on risk sharing than the size
of any package. But the ECB’s proposed fix has its critics, who warn that
scrapping its commitment to risk sharing sends a dangerous message on the
future of the eurozone.
Draghi's
Looming "Anti-Integration" QE: It's The Structure (Not Size) That
Matters – ZH
OTHER
Treacherous
Investment Climate: What to Watch – Marc
to Market
The
world’s worst idea: taking out a mortgage in a foreign currency – WaPo
Banks,
bonds and deficits –
Frances
Coppola
I thought
I'd do a few scenarios to show what happens when different types of private
sector actors buy and sell government bonds.
Why
below target inflation is a big problem – Simon
Wren-Lewis
Is low
inflation good news?
– Worthwhile
FINNISH
Jan Hurri: Europäättäjien pääkallokeli – kuka liukastuu
kumoon? - TalSa
Hermot kiristyvät euroalueella, kun keskuspankki EKP
valmistautuu kiistanalaisiin valtionlainaostoihin ja Kreikka vaaleihin ja
velkojensa armahdusvaatimuksiin. Päättäjät liukastelevat europolitiikan pääkallokelissä.
Kuka kaatuu kumoon, Kreikka, Saksa vai Suomi?
Kreikan hintalappu nousi – IS
Suomi maksaisi peräti kaksi miljardia euroa - laina-aikojen
pidentämisestä lähes yhtä suuri summa
Talousasiantuntija: Kreikan euroero hyvin epätodennäköinen,
lainahelpotus todennäköinen – YLE
Helsingin yliopiston tutkijan Lauri Holapan mukaan Kreikan
lainaohjelmaan tehdään todennäköisesti muutoksia Suomen tiukan kielteisestä kannasta
huolimatta.
Näin Mario Draghi pelastaa euromaat – seuraavaksi QE ja
lopuksi korieuro? – Sami
Miettinen / US
Kehitysapua jaetaan liikaa ja liian kauan – AL
Ulkoasiainneuvos Matti Kääriäinen näki kehitysavun arkea
vuosikymmenten ajan. Kaivoja tehtiin, tehtaita nousi, mutta köyhyys ei kadonnut
mihinkään. Lopulta hänen oli myönnettävä kiusallinen totuus: kehitysapu ei
toimi, eikä sen tehottomuus kiinnosta ketään.
Soini laskee vaaleissa Kreikan varaan – HS
Perussuomalaiset sopeuttaisivat valtiontaloutta 2–3
miljardilla heti vaalikauden alussa. Leikkauslistaa ei kerrota.
Kimmo Sasi tyrmää säästöjen lykkäämisen: Ei samaa
virhettä toistamiseen – Verkkouutiset
Kokoomuksen Kimmo Sasi varoittaa toistamasta samaa virhettä
talouspolitiikassa kuin tällä vaalikaudella tehtiin, kun menoleikkauksia
päätettiin lykätä.
Timo Soini: Perussuomalaiset ei leikkaa pienituloisilta
– Verkkouutiset
Leikkausten sijaan Timo Soini ehdottaa menosupistuksia
esimerkiksi kehitysapuun ja EU-tukipolitiikkaan.
Talouspoliitikan arviontineuvoston raportti 2014 – TPAN
Onko perusteita sopeuttaa vasta vuonna 2017? – Suomen
Pankki