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Sunday, January 18

18th Jan - W/E: Linkfest

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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What’s the most fiscally responsible country in the developed world?PBS
If only Italy could magically eliminate its outstanding debt, which exceeds 130 percent of GDP. Then Renzi would have the headroom to move Italy forward. Actually, there is a quick and painless way for Italy to become debt free. Italy can simply buy back all outstanding government debt and pay for these bonds with commitments to larger future pension payments.

Jean-Claude Juncker compares British membership of EU to doomed romanceThe Telegraph
EU Commission president says people should not stay together if conditions aren’t the same as when things started - the first time he has contemplated a British exit

Dovish Tone of EU’s Russia Paper Makes Some Diplomats UneasyWSJ
The immediate reaction was that Brussels was looking for justifications to start scaling back sanctions.

Zoning outThe Economist
Why leaving the euro would still be bad for both Greece and the currency area

Why a Grexit is more costly for Germany than a default inside the euro areaBruegel
Contrary to the IFO institute, we conclude that German losses on both official and private claims would be much higher if Greece exits the euro

Jordan Says Entire SNB Governing Board Supported Exiting Cap – BB
Oh Switzerland, What Have You Done? – Frances Coppola
Switzerland’s problem isn’t an expensive currency but anemic consumption – FT
The cuckoo clock chimes for the Swiss franc – Paul Mason / Channel 4
Making Sense of the Swiss Shock – Project Syndicate

Central Banks Don’t Need Financial Capital, but do Need Political Capital – Cullen Roche
What does the end of the Swiss Peg tell us about central banks? – Simon Wren-Lewis
Two Cheers for the Swiss National Bank – PIIE
Everyone has to have a Swiss National Bank post – Long and Variable
Could Swiss Beat Greece Exiting The Euro Zone? – Econmatters

Francs, Fear and Folly – Krugman / NYT
Paul Krugman and the Swiss Movement – CEPR
Tough times ahead for the Swiss economy – Sober Look
On the Instability of Unilateral Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes – David Andolfatto
Gavyn Davies: The Swiss currency bombshell – cause and effect – FT

Evans-Pritchard: Switzerland 'capitulates' on franc – The Telegraph
George Magnus: Abandonment of the peg is history repeating itself – FT

Effective Eurozone QE: Size matters more than risk-sharingvoxeu
The ECB may soon launch QE. Two of Europe’s leading macroeconomists argue that QE is the ECB’s last anti-deflation tool – it must not be sacrificed to political expediency. The risk-sharing debate is secondary to the programme’s size and duration – one example would be €60 billion per month for one year, or until inflation expectations rose to near 2%. The ECB should also explain that no matter how well the monetary part of the programme is designed, an accompanying fiscal expansion is critical to QE’s effectiveness.

The ECJ suggests OMT is compatible with the Treaty, but not with the TroikaBruegel
The OMT introduces explicit conditionality for the bond buying and it links the decision of the Governing Council to continue or suspend the OMT to the assessment of whether such conditionality is fulfilled.

ECB set to bow to German pressure over QEFT
Policy makers in Frankfurt are expected to take the momentous decision to embark on quantitative easing on Thursday, with the most likely option at this stage for the ECB to force the 19 national central banks that make up the eurozone to stand behind their own sovereign bonds.

Deutsche Bank: The ECB Will Fail Given The "History Lessons Of US And Japan"ZH

Wolfgang Münchau: Why the ECB should not water down a QE programmeFT
My plea would be to start with a big figure now. Size matters

Eurozone QE set to arrive at last this week, but with conditionsFT
Market economists would prefer Mr Draghi to compromise on risk sharing than the size of any package. But the ECB’s proposed fix has its critics, who warn that scrapping its commitment to risk sharing sends a dangerous message on the future of the eurozone.

Draghi's Looming "Anti-Integration" QE: It's The Structure (Not Size) That MattersZH

Treacherous Investment Climate: What to Watch Marc to Market

The world’s worst idea: taking out a mortgage in a foreign currencyWaPo

Banks, bonds and deficitsFrances Coppola
I thought I'd do a few scenarios to show what happens when different types of private sector actors buy and sell government bonds.

Why below target inflation is a big problemSimon Wren-Lewis

Is low inflation good news?Worthwhile

Jan Hurri: Europäättäjien pääkallokeli – kuka liukastuu kumoon? - TalSa
Hermot kiristyvät euroalueella, kun keskuspankki EKP valmistautuu kiistanalaisiin valtionlainaostoihin ja Kreikka vaaleihin ja velkojensa armahdusvaatimuksiin. Päättäjät liukastelevat europolitiikan pääkallokelissä. Kuka kaatuu kumoon, Kreikka, Saksa vai Suomi?

Kreikan hintalappu nousiIS
Suomi maksaisi peräti kaksi miljardia euroa - laina-aikojen pidentämisestä lähes yhtä suuri summa

Talousasiantuntija: Kreikan euroero hyvin epätodennäköinen, lainahelpotus todennäköinenYLE
Helsingin yliopiston tutkijan Lauri Holapan mukaan Kreikan lainaohjelmaan tehdään todennäköisesti muutoksia Suomen tiukan kielteisestä kannasta huolimatta.

Näin Mario Draghi pelastaa euromaat – seuraavaksi QE ja lopuksi korieuro?Sami Miettinen / US

Kehitysapua jaetaan liikaa ja liian kauanAL
Ulkoasiainneuvos Matti Kääriäinen näki kehitysavun arkea vuosikymmenten ajan. Kaivoja tehtiin, tehtaita nousi, mutta köyhyys ei kadonnut mihinkään. Lopulta hänen oli myönnettävä kiusallinen totuus: kehitysapu ei toimi, eikä sen tehottomuus kiinnosta ketään.

Soini laskee vaaleissa Kreikan varaanHS
Perussuomalaiset sopeuttaisivat valtiontaloutta 2–3 miljardilla heti vaalikauden alussa. Leikkauslistaa ei kerrota.

Kimmo Sasi tyrmää säästöjen lykkäämisen: Ei samaa virhettä toistamiseenVerkkouutiset
Kokoomuksen Kimmo Sasi varoittaa toistamasta samaa virhettä talouspolitiikassa kuin tällä vaalikaudella tehtiin, kun menoleikkauksia päätettiin lykätä.

Timo Soini: Perussuomalaiset ei leikkaa pienituloisiltaVerkkouutiset
Leikkausten sijaan Timo Soini ehdottaa menosupistuksia esimerkiksi kehitysapuun ja EU-tukipolitiikkaan.

Talouspoliitikan arviontineuvoston raportti 2014TPAN

Onko perusteita sopeuttaa vasta vuonna 2017? Suomen Pankki