Google Analytics

Friday, January 9

9th Jan - Strong US jobs, ECB doubted

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter

Goldman Warns Market Implications Of Europe's Populist Revolt Are "Profound"ZH

Eurozone new year off to a rip-roaring startGeorge Magnus

Greek Kingmaker-in-Waiting Says He Won’t Gamble Euro Exit – BB
How to reduce the Greek debt burden? – Bruegel
Greek debt held by ECB cannot be restructured: ECB's Coeure – Reuters

ECB Said to Study Bond-Purchase Models Up to 500 Billion Euros – BB
ECB Action Is ‘Just Going to be a Currency Play,’ Says Global Bank Group Chief – WSJ
Europe Stocks Decline as ECB Said to Study Bond-Purchase Models – BB
Is the ECB Sabotaging Itself? – WSJ

U.K. Manufacturing Production Rises; Trade Gap Narrows on Oil – BB
How OPEC Weaponized the Price of Oil Against U.S. Drillers – BB
German Industrial Production Falls Amid Plunge in Energy Output – BB

Rotation of FOMC voting rights moves in a dovish directionDanske Bank

December Jobs Report: Everything You Need to Know – WSJ
December Jobs Report—The Numbers – WSJ
Strong Jobs Report With Mixed Undercurrent Keeps Fed On Patient Course – WSJ
The December Jobs Report in 10 Charts – WSJ
Consensus on US Job Growth Met, but Big Earnings Disappointment – Marc to Market
Solid job growth but no inflation – Danske Bank
Good Jobs Report Not Good Enough to Calm an Anxious Market – WSJ
Payrolls Rise, But Hourly Earnings Plunge Most In At Least 8 Years – ZH
Participation Rate Drops To 38 Year Low; Record 92.9 Million Not In Labor Force – ZH
Payrolls Reaction: Crude Lower As Bonds & Stocks Rally – ZH
Dow Drops Post-Payrolls Peak, WTI Tumbles To $47 Handle, Bond Yields Plunge – ZH
This was not an impressive report, but does the market care – TradingFloor
Strong print marred by earnings weakness – TradingFloor
Yellen can hold on rates rise after NFP print – TradingFloor
Economists React to the December Jobs Report: ‘We Are Left Wanting’ – WSJ
5 Takeaways from the December Jobs Report – WSJ
252,000 Jobs, 5.6% Unemployment Rate – Calculated Risk
Wage Growth - or Lack of - Continues to Surprise – Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
U.S. economy added 252,000 jobs in December – WaPo
First come the jobs, then comes the real wage growth – Calculated Risk

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Fed Patience Takes Some Heat Out of December Payroll Report * Senate Passes Bill Requiring At Least One Fed Board Member Have Community Banking Experience * Landon May Not Be Community Banker Under New Legislation * Fed’s Rosengren: Exact Timing of Rate Increases Not a Huge Deal * China Inflation Ticks Up in December, But Weak Demand Raises Concerns

Daily MacroWSJ
European markets are down again. The prime explanation is that there are doubts being sown around the prospects of action from the ECB. Yet, either way, the entire story behind Thursday’s rally – that things are getting so bad outside of the U.S. that central banks will be forced to dole out more liquidity – hardly represents a ringing endorsement of the global investment climate

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Downside risk for US December payrolls * Long rates rebounding – more upside left * SEK still struggling

Dollar Softer Ahead of Employment ReportMarc to Market

Futures Fade After Report ECB Still Unsure On QE Format

From the floorTradingFloor
China rallies on reserve requirement speculation, but gives up gains by close * Koefoed forecasts nonfarm payrolls print of 225,000 * Non-USD yen crosses appear close to breakdown, particularly EURJPY at 1.40 * Garnry expects energy sector stocks to surge in 2015 * Recent Fed member comments support 'no rate hikes in 2015' scenario: Fasdal

Oil price at USD 50 is not sustainableNordea
Supply and demand for oil reacts very little to price changes short term, but the reaction is not zero. Estimated price elasticities indicate that the present “excess supply” of oil will disappear within a year’s time, implying that the oil price should shoot up in the second half of 2015 and/or in 2016.

Understanding the Plunge in Oil Prices: Sources and ImplicationsWorld Bank
How the World Bank Sees Cheap Oil Affecting the Global Economy – WSJ

January Macro UpdateThe Fat Pitch
The Best Month For Macro Since the Recession

Aamukatsaus Nordea
Mihin valuuttaan Kreikan lähtö iskisi? | Tänään keskiössä USA:n työmarkkinadata | Saksan tehdastilaukset olivat pettymys

EKP:n valtiolainaostojen laillisuuskysymykset vielä epäselviäPS

Talouselämän selvitys: Sdp kärsii historiallisen tappion eduskuntavaaleissa HS
Talouselämä-lehden laajan selvityksen perusteella kokoomus menettäisi vaaleissa vain muutaman paikan, mutta sosiaalidemokraattien kannatus romahtaisi. Keskusta olisi odotetusti kirkas vaalivoittaja.

Työttömyyden syynä ei tarve hillitä inflaatiotaRoger Wessman

Kreikan velkoja on pakko leikataHenri Myllyniemi / US

Näkökulma: Timo Soini halutaan porvarihallitukseenIL

Venäjän talouden heikkoudet kärjistyivät viime vuonnaSuomen Pankki
Suomen Pankki: Venäjän ongelmien syynä "erikoislaatuinen talousjärjestelmä"Verkkouutiset

Aki Kangasharju: Nyt PITÄISI olla investoijan unelma-aikaNordea
Markkinat ovat menettäneet uskonsa Eurooppaan, eikä syyttä. Ilman mittavia rakennepoliittisia muutoksia Euroopan keskuspankin rahaelvytys ei ole muuta kuin lyhytaikaista ensiapua.

Teollisuustuotanto väheni marraskuussa 0,8 prosenttia vuoden takaisesta – Tilastokeskus
Teollisuuden uudet tilaukset kasvoivat marrask. 5,6% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Teollisuuden uudet tilaukset vakautuneet – Nordea