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EUROPE
Nordic
Outlook - January 2015 – Danske
Bank
Denmark: low oil prices supporting recovery,
economy seems to be slowly moving in the right direction Sweden: growth has not quite lived up to
previous expectations Norway: Lower oil prices put brakes on
growth Finland: economy is struggling due to the Russian
recession and low domestic demand
If Europe does not change its ways – if it
does not reform the eurozone and repeal austerity – a popular backlash will
become inevitable. Though Greece may stay the course following its
early election later this month, democracy will not permit the economic madness
to continue.
The EU’s
fiscal framework, the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), is a complicated system
of fiscal rules. Rather than trying to assess the virtues and failures of the
SGP, this blogpost aims at understanding its complex rules through the lens of
the draft budget plans of France and Italy. France is in the corrective arm of the SGP, while Italy is now in the preventive arm, which
allows the examination of various SGP requirements,
The victim
states of southern Europe have retrenched heroically, yet deflation effects are overwhelming them
Germany dislikes QE as it would delay real
reform * Strict rules (written by Germany) would allow QE * Greek debt
problem could be sorted with similar rules
Riksbank
ready to take action
– Nordea
The minutes
from the 15 December meeting show that the Riksbank is ready to take action in
February if it proves necessary, including unconventional measures.
Russian
rouble - falling currency infecting the neighbours – Danske
Bank
GREECE
Greece’s Latest Travails Are Not Europe’s
Problem This Time – PIIE
ECB warns
Greek funding access hinges on keeping bailout – Reuters
Greek
Default Risk Soars As "Independent" ECB Dictates Greek Policy... Or
Else – ZH
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
"The
ECB Has Lost Control" - Spiegel Asks If "Helicopter Money" Comes
Next? – ZH
Stimulus
alone is not enough; government action is also needed
ECB
risks undermining QE if it opts for compromise plan – Reuters
MACRO NUMBERS
Euro-Area
Confidence Unchanged as Deflation Risks Damp Outlook – BB
German
Factory Orders Fell Amid Uncertain Outlook – BB
Volume of
retail trade up by 0.6% in euro area – Eurostat
Decent euro
retail sales with more to come – Danske
Bank
Industrial
producer prices down by 0.3% in euro area – Eurostat
Eurozone
Inflation Expectations Continue to Slide – WSJ
UNITED STATES
Preview:
Employment Report for December – Calculated
Risk
5 Things
to Watch in the December Jobs Report – WSJ
Goldman's
2015 Political Outlook: Will Congress "Audit" The Fed? – ZH
FEDERAL RESERVE
Minutes:
Foreign economic developments the main risk – Danske
Bank
Fed Finally
Admits Frontrunning Of Central Banks Is What Moves Markets – ZH
Fed pressed
ahead with plan to raise rates, the Minutes show – Handelsbanken
Fed Bond
Purchases Had Larger Overseas Effects Than Rates, IMF Says – WSJ
Recap
2015-01-07 – Global
Macro Trading
Entire move
in US yields over the past 1.5 years has been driven by the inflation
component.
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: Could Lower 10-Year Yields Spark A More Aggressive Fed? * Fed Flags
Overseas Growth as Worry * Fed Keeps Testing Reverse Repos, Shelves Segregated
Accounts * Global Inflation Rates Fall as Oil Prices Drop * Bank of England Leaves Rates Unchanged
Daily
Macro – WSJ
The selling
pressure in stock markets appears to have abated somewhat, firstly in response
to a rebound in oil markets and later on rising hopes that the European Central
Bank will be pressured into quantitative easing. The correlation between oil
and equities is striking in that it runs counter to the mostly upbeat assessment
from economists and policy makers of what falling crude prices should mean for
economies.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Eye-Opener:
Fed on course, rates and oil rebound, EUR/USD still falling – Nordea
Riksbank:
How unconventional? * Gerrman 10-year yield finally showing some signs of
stabilising * USD unchallenged before payrolls
Dollar
Shoots Higher – Marc to
Market
Daily
Shot – TradingFloor
Another
day, another low, with the euro and crude oil once again taking top billing. Europe's dip into deflation sent the
single currency to its lowest in nine years and although oil enjoyed a bit of a
bounce, supplies in storage are still far bigger than at this time last year.
US Open – ZH
Evans' "Catastrophe"
Comment Blasts Overnight Futures Into Overdrive, 10-Year Rises To 2%
OTHER
EURUSD:
Cloudy with a chance of QE – Nordea
Dark clouds
have continued to mount for the Euro Area, putting pressure on the EUR. The
overall macro story is conducive of further USD strength, but the near term is
somewhat cloudy owing to the ECB.
Deflation
is back, and markets are freaking out – WaPo
Q1 Essential
Trades: Maximum dislocation – TradingFloor
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Negatiivinen inflaatio käynnistää setelipainon | RIksbankin
kokouspöytäkirjoista viitteitä tulevasta?
Muistioita tulevalle hallitukselle. Talouspolitiikan
linjaus keväällä 2015 – ETLA
Etla pidentäisi työviikkoa ja leikkaisi sivukuluja – Verkkouutiset
Etlan Vihriälä tyrmää elvytyksen: kilpailukykyä parannettava
– Verkkouutiset
Kriisitaloustiede ja taloustieteen kriisi – Allan
Seuri
Kriisien vaikutus euroalueen talouteen – Suomen
Pankki
Euroalueen talouskehityksen suurimmat epävarmuudet liittyvät
tällä hetkellä geopoliittiseen tilanteeseen. Ukrainan kriisi ja Lähi-idän sekä Pohjois-Afrikan
kriisit ovat jo johtaneet – tai voivat edelleen kärjistyessään johtaa – huomattavasti
ennustettua heikompaan talouskehitykseen. Tässä julkaisussa arvioidaan
tilastollisten menetelmien ja kokonaistaloudellisen mallin avulla kriisien
vaikutusta ja välittymistapoja euroalueen talouteen. Yleisten vaikutusten ja
vaikutuskanavien lisäksi erityistä huomiota kiinnitetään tämän hetken raha- ja
finanssipolitiikan rajoitettuun liikkumatilaan.
Pääministeri: Suomi ei ole lähdössä helpottamaan Kreikan
lainaehtoja – Verkkouutiset