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Thursday, January 8

8th Jan - Waiting mode

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Nordic Outlook - January 2015Danske Bank
Denmark: low oil prices supporting recovery, economy seems to be slowly moving in the right direction  Sweden: growth has not quite lived up to previous expectations Norway: Lower oil prices put brakes on growth Finland: economy is struggling due to the Russian recession and low domestic demand

Joseph E. Stiglitz: Europe’s Lapse of ReasonProject Syndicate
If Europe does not change its ways – if it does not reform the eurozone and repeal austerity – a popular backlash will become inevitable. Though Greece may stay the course following its early election later this month, democracy will not permit the economic madness to continue.

France and Italy: The ABCs of the European Fiscal FrameworkBruegel
The EU’s fiscal framework, the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), is a complicated system of fiscal rules. Rather than trying to assess the virtues and failures of the SGP, this blogpost aims at understanding its complex rules through the lens of the draft budget plans of France and Italy. France is in the corrective arm of the SGP, while Italy is now in the preventive arm, which allows the examination of various SGP requirements,

EMU deflation is the final betrayal of southern EuropeThe Telegraph
The victim states of southern Europe have retrenched heroically, yet deflation effects are overwhelming them

Is the German Road to probity the one true path?TradingFloor
Germany dislikes QE as it would delay real reform * Strict rules (written by Germany) would allow QE * Greek debt problem could be sorted with similar rules

Is low inflation translating into lower wage growth in Germany already?Bruegel

Riksbank ready to take actionNordea
The minutes from the 15 December meeting show that the Riksbank is ready to take action in February if it proves necessary, including unconventional measures.

A Tale Of Two Record Unemployments: Italy vs GermanyZH

Russian rouble - falling currency infecting the neighboursDanske Bank

Greece’s Latest Travails Are Not Europe’s Problem This TimePIIE
ECB warns Greek funding access hinges on keeping bailout – Reuters
Greek Default Risk Soars As "Independent" ECB Dictates Greek Policy... Or Else – ZH

Draghi's Nightmare: Deflation in EuropeEconmatters

"The ECB Has Lost Control" - Spiegel Asks If "Helicopter Money" Comes Next? ZH

ECB QE will not make Europe a good investmentFT
Stimulus alone is not enough; government action is also needed

ECB risks undermining QE if it opts for compromise planReuters

ECB's Coeure Exposes Europe's Confusion Over Greece, QE, Oil & Deflation ZH

Eurozone sentiment: Spain charges ahead, Greece drops – Berenberg
Euro-Area Confidence Unchanged as Deflation Risks Damp Outlook – BB
German Factory Orders Fell Amid Uncertain Outlook – BB
Volume of retail trade up by 0.6% in euro area – Eurostat
Decent euro retail sales with more to come – Danske Bank
Industrial producer prices down by 0.3% in euro area – Eurostat
Eurozone Inflation Expectations Continue to Slide – WSJ

Preview: Employment Report for DecemberCalculated Risk
5 Things to Watch in the December Jobs ReportWSJ

Goldman's 2015 Political Outlook: Will Congress "Audit" The Fed?ZH

The Fed Is Worried About Plunging Oil Prices Hurting U.S. Trading Partners – WSJ
Minutes: Foreign economic developments the main risk Danske Bank
Fed Finally Admits Frontrunning Of Central Banks Is What Moves Markets – ZH
Fed pressed ahead with plan to raise rates, the Minutes show – Handelsbanken

Fed Bond Purchases Had Larger Overseas Effects Than Rates, IMF SaysWSJ

Recap 2015-01-07 Global Macro Trading
Entire move in US yields over the past 1.5 years has been driven by the inflation component.

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Could Lower 10-Year Yields Spark A More Aggressive Fed? * Fed Flags Overseas Growth as Worry * Fed Keeps Testing Reverse Repos, Shelves Segregated Accounts * Global Inflation Rates Fall as Oil Prices Drop * Bank of England Leaves Rates Unchanged

Daily MacroWSJ
The selling pressure in stock markets appears to have abated somewhat, firstly in response to a rebound in oil markets and later on rising hopes that the European Central Bank will be pressured into quantitative easing. The correlation between oil and equities is striking in that it runs counter to the mostly upbeat assessment from economists and policy makers of what falling crude prices should mean for economies.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Eye-Opener: Fed on course, rates and oil rebound, EUR/USD still fallingNordea
Riksbank: How unconventional? * Gerrman 10-year yield finally showing some signs of stabilising * USD unchallenged before payrolls

Dollar Shoots HigherMarc to Market

Daily ShotTradingFloor
Another day, another low, with the euro and crude oil once again taking top billing. Europe's dip into deflation sent the single currency to its lowest in nine years and although oil enjoyed a bit of a bounce, supplies in storage are still far bigger than at this time last year.

Evans' "Catastrophe" Comment Blasts Overnight Futures Into Overdrive, 10-Year Rises To 2%

EURUSD: Cloudy with a chance of QENordea
Dark clouds have continued to mount for the Euro Area, putting pressure on the EUR. The overall macro story is conducive of further USD strength, but the near term is somewhat cloudy owing to the ECB.

Deflation is back, and markets are freaking outWaPo

Q1 Essential Trades: Maximum dislocationTradingFloor

Aamukatsaus Nordea
Negatiivinen inflaatio käynnistää setelipainon | RIksbankin kokouspöytäkirjoista viitteitä tulevasta?

Muistioita tulevalle hallitukselle. Talouspolitiikan linjaus keväällä 2015ETLA
Etla pidentäisi työviikkoa ja leikkaisi sivukulujaVerkkouutiset
Etlan Vihriälä tyrmää elvytyksen: kilpailukykyä parannettavaVerkkouutiset

Kriisitaloustiede ja taloustieteen kriisiAllan Seuri

Kriisien vaikutus euroalueen talouteenSuomen Pankki
Euroalueen talouskehityksen suurimmat epävarmuudet liittyvät tällä hetkellä geopoliittiseen tilanteeseen. Ukrainan kriisi ja Lähi-idän sekä Pohjois-Afrikan kriisit ovat jo johtaneet – tai voivat edelleen kärjistyessään johtaa – huomattavasti ennustettua heikompaan talouskehitykseen. Tässä julkaisussa arvioidaan tilastollisten menetelmien ja kokonaistaloudellisen mallin avulla kriisien vaikutusta ja välittymistapoja euroalueen talouteen. Yleisten vaikutusten ja vaikutuskanavien lisäksi erityistä huomiota kiinnitetään tämän hetken raha- ja finanssipolitiikan rajoitettuun liikkumatilaan.

Pääministeri: Suomi ei ole lähdössä helpottamaan Kreikan lainaehtojaVerkkouutiset