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EUROPE
Pierre
Werner on the “psychological, political and futurist” reasons for the euro – Craig
Willy
Renzi is
the last hope for the Italian elite – FT
Populists
will do well in the EU’s eight parliamentary elections in 2015, says Tony
Barber
UK political risk is back on the worry
list – FT
Opinion
polls increasingly suggesting neither of the two main parties will win an
outright victory in May’s general election.
UK’s EU referendum would damage
economy – FT
A
referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU would hurt
the economy because it would cause sharp falls in investor confidence and
business investment.
Merkel
attacks wave of rightwing populism – FT
Merkel
headed a trio of European leaders in delivering a powerful warning against
populism and prejudice taking root in Europe, amid deepening fears about economic
stagnation.
Spain-Germany
yield spread narrows to less than 100bp – TradingFloor
RUSSIA
Kremlin Foe
Navalny Defiant at 'Filthy' Punishment as a Weakened Putin Stares Down Dissent
– BB
Navalny is
a thorn in Putin’s side, but silencing him won’t be easy – Reuters
Who is
Alexei Navalny, and why does he scare Putin so much? – vox
Inside
Obama’s Secret Outreach to Russia – BB
GREECE
Why I think
Greece will leave the eurozone this year or soon thereafter – Tyler
Cowen
Bluff of
the Day: Germany Warns Greece No Longer Systemic – Mish’s
Greek
Polling Points to Coalition as Voters Reject System – BB
Greek and
European prospects for 2015 – Yanis
Varoufakis
Will Greece be in EMU at the end of 2015? – Marc
to Market
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Draghi
Says ECB Prepares Action as Deflation Risk Non-Negligible – BB
Draghi said
he can’t exclude the risk of deflation in the euro area, in a sign that the
likelihood of large-scale quantitative easing is increasing.
Draghi's
New Year resolutions: QE push, possible career move – TradingFloor
Draghi has
until the next meeting of the ECB governing council on January 22 to convince
it that sovereign bond purchases are essential. Meanwhile there are hints that
Draghi could have ambitions elsewhere. If that is so, expect an almighty scrap
over the post of fourth president of the ECB.
Merkel
ally urges ECB not to buy struggling states' bonds – Reuters
A senior
member of Merkel's party warned the ECB not to pour money into Greece and other struggling euro zone
states through bond purchases, saying this would reduce pressure on them to
enact much-needed reforms.
Mario
Draghi: Stability and Prosperity in Monetary Union – Project
Syndicate
There is a
common misconception that the eurozone is a monetary union without a political
union. In fact, monetary union is possible only because of the substantial
integration already achieved among European Union countries – and sharing a
single currency deepens that integration.
Draghi: Managing
the Eurozone is a lot harder than a Nation-State – Craig
Willy
Euro
Forecasters See More Pain After Worst Year Since 2005 – BB
Draghi
drives euro to four and a half year low – Reuters
Euro slides
to lowest since June 2010 on Draghi QE hint – FT
Euro hits
four and a half year low as ECB's Draghi fuels QE bets – Reuters
MACRO NUMBERS
Euro area
PMI manufacturing accelerates a bit in December – TradingFloor
UK consumer lending soars as mortgage
approvals edge down – Reuters
UK manufacturing growth cools
unexpectedly in December – Reuters
Italy Dec factory activity shrinks at
fastest pace in 19 months – Reuters
5Y German
Bond Yield Goes Negative For First Time Ever – ZH
UNITED STATES
ISM
Manufacturing index declined to 55.5 in December – Calculated
Risk
ISM
Manufacturing & Construction Spending Collapse To 6-Month Lows – ZH
New Orders
Plunge Below Polar Vortex Level, Optimism Plummets To 2012 Levels – ZH
U.S. factory sector suffers end-of-year
chill – Reuters
Factories in U.S. Expand at a More Sustainable Pace –
BB
ASIA
China factory slowdown a force for disinflation,
Asia faces softer demand – Reuters
OTHER
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Daily
Shot – TradingFloor
Strong USD
hits emerging markets hard * Rousseff regime can't stop the BRL's tumble * US
natural gas futures heading lower
Dollar
Soars on Divergence
– Marc
to Market
US Open – ZH
Draghi
Launches New Year With More QE Jawboning, Sending Euro To New 4 Year Low, Yields
Lower, US Futures Higher
J.
Bradford DeLong: Try Everything – Project
Syndicate
Policymakers
have always had a model for escaping from the 2008 economic crisis. In the
1930s, US President Franklin D. Roosevelt responded to the Great Depression
with a simple yet radical strategy: try everything that might boost demand,
increase production, or reduce unemployment, and then scale up the things that
work.
Cloning
the Largest Hedge Fund in the World: Bridgewater’s All Weather – Meb
Faber
The
Middle East: Gone as we know it – Aljazeera
The
tumultuous 2014 has brought major changes to the Middle East.
OPEC
December Crude Output Slips as Global Prices Tumble – BB
Copper
Drops to 4-Year Low as China Manufacturing Slows – BB
FINNISH
Aika päästää irti Kreikasta – Nordea
Jan Hurri: Troikan mokat kostautuvat Kreikassa – TalSa
Eurokriisi kytee taas Kreikassa, jossa suurlaman ärsyttämä
kansa kokoontuu uuden vuoden alussa vaaliuurnille. Tarkoitus on valita maahan
uusi parlamentti, mutta samalla kansa ilmaissee mielipiteensä troikan nyt jo
viisi vuotta jatkuneesta talouskurituksesta ja muista
"pelastustoimista". Näissä vaaleissa troikan mokat kostautuvat.
Apua etelästä – IL
Kreikka voi pelastaa persujen vaalit, kirjoittaa politiikan
toimittaja Tommi Parkkonen.
Olli Herrala: Nyt ay-liike hyökkää osa-aikatyötä vastaan
– KL
Velat, tulot ja devalvaatio tai palkkaleikkaukset –
tavoitteena pitäisi olla pienin vahinko – Tyhmyri
Näin ei voi jatkua – Jukka
Hankamäki
Mikä sitten estää tekemisen ja asioihin tarttumisen?
Suomalaiset kokevat lamaannusta, koska he tietävät, että kansakuntamme ja
valtiomme yhteiseksi hyväksi työskenteleminen ei auta, vaan ihmisten
ponnistukset menevät käytännössä hukkaan, toisin sanoen kehitysapuun,
EU-jäsenmaksuun, toisten kansakuntien velkojen maksuun, maahanmuutosta
johtuvaan sosiaalirasitukseen ja muuhun hömpötykseen.
Stubbin neuvonantaja myöntää kokoomuksen virheet –
”Kauniit ja rohkeat laitetaan johtajiksi” – Kaleva
Suomi ja Nato ja länteen kuuluminen – turvallisuus ja
talous – Tyhmyri
Suurten yritysten liikevaihto laski marraskuussa 4,2
prosenttia vuotta aiemmasta – Tilastokeskus
Asuntolainakannan kasvuvauhti hidastunut loppuvuotta kohden –
Suomen
Pankki
Uudet yrityslainat rojahtivat lähes kolmanneksen
marraskuussa – Verkkouutiset