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Friday, January 2

2nd Jan - Draghi goes all-in with QE-promises

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Pierre Werner on the “psychological, political and futurist” reasons for the euroCraig Willy

Renzi is the last hope for the Italian eliteFT
Populists will do well in the EU’s eight parliamentary elections in 2015, says Tony Barber

UK political risk is back on the worry listFT
Opinion polls increasingly suggesting neither of the two main parties will win an outright victory in May’s general election.

UK’s EU referendum would damage economyFT
A referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU would hurt the economy because it would cause sharp falls in investor confidence and business investment.

Merkel attacks wave of rightwing populismFT
Merkel headed a trio of European leaders in delivering a powerful warning against populism and prejudice taking root in Europe, amid deepening fears about economic stagnation.

Spain-Germany yield spread narrows to less than 100bpTradingFloor

Kremlin Foe Navalny Defiant at 'Filthy' Punishment as a Weakened Putin Stares Down Dissent – BB
Navalny is a thorn in Putin’s side, but silencing him won’t be easy – Reuters
Who is Alexei Navalny, and why does he scare Putin so much? – vox
Inside Obama’s Secret Outreach to RussiaBB

Why I think Greece will leave the eurozone this year or soon thereafter – Tyler Cowen
Bluff of the Day: Germany Warns Greece No Longer Systemic – Mish’s
Greek Polling Points to Coalition as Voters Reject System – BB
Greek and European prospects for 2015 – Yanis Varoufakis
Will Greece be in EMU at the end of 2015? – Marc to Market

Draghi Says ECB Prepares Action as Deflation Risk Non-NegligibleBB
Draghi said he can’t exclude the risk of deflation in the euro area, in a sign that the likelihood of large-scale quantitative easing is increasing.

Draghi's New Year resolutions: QE push, possible career moveTradingFloor
Draghi has until the next meeting of the ECB governing council on January 22 to convince it that sovereign bond purchases are essential. Meanwhile there are hints that Draghi could have ambitions elsewhere. If that is so, expect an almighty scrap over the post of fourth president of the ECB.

Merkel ally urges ECB not to buy struggling states' bondsReuters
A senior member of Merkel's party warned the ECB not to pour money into Greece and other struggling euro zone states through bond purchases, saying this would reduce pressure on them to enact much-needed reforms.

Mario Draghi: Stability and Prosperity in Monetary UnionProject Syndicate
There is a common misconception that the eurozone is a monetary union without a political union. In fact, monetary union is possible only because of the substantial integration already achieved among European Union countries – and sharing a single currency deepens that integration.

Draghi: Managing the Eurozone is a lot harder than a Nation-StateCraig Willy

Euro Forecasters See More Pain After Worst Year Since 2005 – BB
Draghi drives euro to four and a half year low – Reuters
Euro slides to lowest since June 2010 on Draghi QE hint – FT
Euro hits four and a half year low as ECB's Draghi fuels QE bets – Reuters

Euro area PMI manufacturing accelerates a bit in December – TradingFloor
UK consumer lending soars as mortgage approvals edge down – Reuters
UK manufacturing growth cools unexpectedly in December – Reuters
Italy Dec factory activity shrinks at fastest pace in 19 months – Reuters
5Y German Bond Yield Goes Negative For First Time Ever – ZH

ISM Manufacturing index declined to 55.5 in December – Calculated Risk
ISM Manufacturing & Construction Spending Collapse To 6-Month Lows – ZH
New Orders Plunge Below Polar Vortex Level, Optimism Plummets To 2012 Levels – ZH
U.S. factory sector suffers end-of-year chill – Reuters
Factories in U.S. Expand at a More Sustainable Pace – BB

China factory slowdown a force for disinflation, Asia faces softer demandReuters

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Daily ShotTradingFloor
Strong USD hits emerging markets hard * Rousseff regime can't stop the BRL's tumble * US natural gas futures heading lower

Dollar Soars on DivergenceMarc to Market

Draghi Launches New Year With More QE Jawboning, Sending Euro To New 4 Year Low, Yields Lower, US Futures Higher

J. Bradford DeLong: Try EverythingProject Syndicate
Policymakers have always had a model for escaping from the 2008 economic crisis. In the 1930s, US President Franklin D. Roosevelt responded to the Great Depression with a simple yet radical strategy: try everything that might boost demand, increase production, or reduce unemployment, and then scale up the things that work.

Cloning the Largest Hedge Fund in the World: Bridgewater’s All WeatherMeb Faber

The Middle East: Gone as we know itAljazeera
The tumultuous 2014 has brought major changes to the Middle East.

OPEC December Crude Output Slips as Global Prices TumbleBB

Copper Drops to 4-Year Low as China Manufacturing SlowsBB

Aika päästää irti KreikastaNordea

Jan Hurri: Troikan mokat kostautuvat Kreikassa TalSa
Eurokriisi kytee taas Kreikassa, jossa suurlaman ärsyttämä kansa kokoontuu uuden vuoden alussa vaaliuurnille. Tarkoitus on valita maahan uusi parlamentti, mutta samalla kansa ilmaissee mielipiteensä troikan nyt jo viisi vuotta jatkuneesta talouskurituksesta ja muista "pelastustoimista". Näissä vaaleissa troikan mokat kostautuvat.

Apua etelästäIL
Kreikka voi pelastaa persujen vaalit, kirjoittaa politiikan toimittaja Tommi Parkkonen.

Olli Herrala: Nyt ay-liike hyökkää osa-aikatyötä vastaanKL

Velat, tulot ja devalvaatio tai palkkaleikkaukset – tavoitteena pitäisi olla pienin vahinkoTyhmyri

Näin ei voi jatkuaJukka Hankamäki
Mikä sitten estää tekemisen ja asioihin tarttumisen? Suomalaiset kokevat lamaannusta, koska he tietävät, että kansakuntamme ja valtiomme yhteiseksi hyväksi työskenteleminen ei auta, vaan ihmisten ponnistukset menevät käytännössä hukkaan, toisin sanoen kehitysapuun, EU-jäsenmaksuun, toisten kansakuntien velkojen maksuun, maahanmuutosta johtuvaan sosiaalirasitukseen ja muuhun hömpötykseen.

Stubbin neuvonantaja myöntää kokoomuksen virheet – ”Kauniit ja rohkeat laitetaan johtajiksi”Kaleva

Suomi ja Nato ja länteen kuuluminen – turvallisuus ja talousTyhmyri

Suurten yritysten liikevaihto laski marraskuussa 4,2 prosenttia vuotta aiemmasta – Tilastokeskus
Asuntolainakannan kasvuvauhti hidastunut loppuvuotta kohden – Suomen Pankki
Uudet yrityslainat rojahtivat lähes kolmanneksen marraskuussa – Verkkouutiset