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Saturday, January 31

31st Jan - W/E: Linkfest

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Ties with Syriza could leave Podemos in a bindFT
By hitching the party to the Syriza bandwagon, Podemos, founded just over a year ago, stands to suffer gravely if the new government in Athens falls short of expectations

How Wall Street squeezed Greece — and GermanyMarketWatch
The bankers and politicians have stuck together. Everyone else seems to be on their own.

Euro Area Growth: Current Consensus Is Too LowBCA

Government bond issuance suspended in defence of peg – Danske Bank
Denmark is not SwitzerlandNordea
The issue SNB defenders don’t address – Scott Sumner

ECB’s QE-Lite Unravels As Greece VotesAlpha Now
Europe’s Greek TestKrugman / NYT
Greek Negotiations Begin with a Blast – Econospeak
The many faces of Jeroen Dijsselbloem – FT
A Greek Burial for German AusterityProject Syndicate

Greece will no longer deal with ‘troika’, Yanis Varoufakis says – FT
Greece says will not cooperate with 'troika' or seek aid extension – Reuters
No lending to Greek banks if no deal by end of February: ECB's Liikanen – Reuters
RIP the primary surplus – Tony Yates
How Do You Solve A Problem Like Syriza?The Automatic Earth

ECB Threatens Bank Funding Cutoff: Feb 28 Is Now D-Day For GreeceZH
Greek Bond Yields Surge Above 19% After EU Talks – ZH
Europe's creditors play with 'political fire' in pushing Greece to the brink – The Telegraph
Germany, ECB play hard ball with GreeceReuters
Greek PM Tsipras calls ECB's Draghi to reassure over talks – Reuters
Greece Will Repay ECB, IMF, Reach Deal With EU, Tsipras Says – BB

Escalating tensions between the new coalition government of Greece and the Troika have rippled across the single currency bloc, eroding much of the boost to sovereign bond prices that followed the ECB’s announcement of something close to, but not quite the same as, QE.

Euro area: Negative inflation positive for the economyNordea
Lower oil prices drove the headline inflation rate down to -0.6%y/y in January. This is not yet the low point. The surprising fall in the core rate could partly be due to larger-than-usual price cuts in the winter sales. The inflation market is weighing the drop in the core rate in particular against the upcoming purchases from the ECB.

The ECB and Its CriticsProject Syndicate
Jean Pisani-Ferry: The ECB’s decision to embark on quantitative easing has triggered an avalanche of indictments, largely reflecting northern European (and especially German) concerns. Though the main charges against QE are unfounded, they must be confronted head-on, lest they undermine the ECB’s credibility and effectiveness.

ECB vice-president attacks supply side view of eurozone woesFT
The ECB vice-president has launched a staunch defence of the central banks’s quantitative easing programme, saying large-scale asset purchases were necessary to counter Europe’s problem of insufficient demand.

Draghi’s golden opportunity – building the perfect firewallLars Christensen
Directly targeting market inflation expectations: buy inflation linked government bonds (linkers) until markets expectations are exactly 2% on all relevant time horizons.
Fed-Watchers Look to Janet Yellen’s February Testimony Before Congress – WSJ

  Q4 GDP
Economists React to the Wages Report: ‘Still Quite Tame’ – WSJ
Disappointed by 2.6% Growth? Blame the U.S. Trade Deficit – WSJ
"It's Different This Time" GDP Hockey-Sticks Edition – ZH
Q4 2014 GDP Misses With Consumer Surging – Bespoke
Some Observations on the 2014Q4 GDP Release – Econbrowser
Q4 ECI and GDP review: Fed hike likely delayed until September – Nordea
The Mexican Peso & Brazilian Real Are CollapsingZH

Brazil's Economy Is On The Verge Of Total CollapseZH

Nicholas Colas: Top 10 Wall Street Rookie MistakesConvergex
Why shouldn't central banks buy risky (and illiquid) assets? – Worthwhile

Credit Supply and the Housing Boom NBER
The Germans Are Making The Same Huge Mistake Bill Clinton Made BI
Government debt was reduced under Clinton, so investment money ballooned into property and real estate instead as investors looked for alternative "safe" vehicles for their money.

Momentum trading, return chasing, and predictable crashesvoxeu
The strategy of momentum investing says simply to buy stocks that are rising in value and sell those that are falling. Abnormal returns should be crowded-out, but have somehow remained remarkably persistent. This column explains the role of periodic crashes – when momentum investing fails – using historical data from Victorian London and the CSRP-era US. Crashes happen just when momentum investing has been most successful, and fund managers are able to attract the most capital.

We already have a simple and conventional story to explain the weak recoveryvoxeu
The anaemic recovery from the Global Crisis and the downward trend in real interest rates since 1980 have revived interest in the idea of secular stagnation. This column argues that if the US, UK, and Eurozone had not pursued contractionary fiscal policies from 2010 onwards, the recovery would not have been so slow and nominal interest rates would no longer be at the zero lower bound. Expanding the stock of government debt would have ameliorated, not worsened, the shortage of safe assets.

Trilemma, Not Dilemma: Financial Globalisation and Monetary Policy EffectivenessFED

IMF Launches New Data PlatformIMF
IMF has launched a new platform to support its move to free data and to improve online global statistical dissemination. The new portal enables bulk data downloads and introduces dynamic visualization to showcase datasets that became available free-of-charge on January 1, 2015.

What Failed in 2008?J. Bradford DeLong
The Great Recession happened because we ignored Friedman’s ideasScott Sumner

Securitization - The Road AheadIMF
Reform Securitization to Improve Growth, Financial Stability – IMF

Secular Stagnation, Debt Overhang and Other Rationales for Sluggish Growth, Six Years OnBIS
[July 2014] Stephanie Lo & Kenneth Rogoff: Until significant pockets of private, external and public debt overhang further abate, the potential role of other headwinds to economic growth will be difficult to quantify

The interplay of accounting and regulation and its impact on bank behaviourBIS
Regulatory and accounting rules are important determinants of bank behaviour; however, the interaction of the two is often not well understood and their intended outcomes do not always align. This Basel Committee working paper reviews academic literature on the interplay of accounting and regulatory frameworks, how these two regimes affect bank behaviour and whether regulatory and accounting requirements can be used to counter unintended outcomes and/or reinforce prudential objectives.

Iltalehti selvitti: Näistä kansa säästäisi – IL
Iltalehden jättiselvityksestä käy ilmi, että kansa olisi valmis leikkaamaan eniten EU-maksuista ja kehitysyhteistyöstä.

Hallitus uskoi yhteisöveron alennuksen dynaamisiin vaikutuksiin – haaveeksi jäi YLE
Veronalennuksen dynaamisten vaikutusten piti piristää taloutta, mutta teho jäi olemattomaksi. Yhteisöverotulot laskivat viime vuonna noin 800 miljoonaa euroa.

Analyysi: Marx palaa Eurooppaan Verkkouutiset
Kreikka sai historiansa ensimmäisen laitavasemmistolaisen hallituksen. Syrizan menestys innostaa sen sisarpuolueita muuallakin EU:ssa.

Tarvitseeko Suomi työvoimapulan paikkaajiaProfessorin ajatuksia

Liikanen: Puolueiden pitäisi tunnustaa faktat ja luvut ennen vaaleja – YLE
Liikanen Kreikasta: Talouden realiteetteja ei pääse kukaan pakoon – YLE