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EUROPE
German
eurosceptic party at crossroads before key election – Reuters
Sounding
more like the economics professor he once was than the dangerous far-right
firebrand some say he has become, Bernd Lucke spoke at length about the perils
of the euro zone and unfettered immigration at a campaign rally last week.
Deepening
the economic and monetary union – Bruegel
Commissioner
Moscovici's speech at the Bruegel event "Deepening Economic and Monetary
Union"
Still No
Exit for Greece – Project
Syndicate
Greece's
next government is likely to be led by the left-wing Syriza party, which plans
to reject austerity and demand significant debt reduction. But the next
government and its European creditors need to compromise, with Greece pursuing
growth-promoting structural reforms in exchange for the fiscal space needed to
allow the reforms to work.
SWITZERLAND
Swiss
Turmoil Spreading in Europe as Saxo, Credit Suisse Hurt – BB
What the
SNB should have done – Lars
Christensen
No, Swiss
National Bank shareholders are not pulling the strings – JP
Koning
Time to
buy some krone? – FT
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Results
of the January 2015 euro area bank lending survey – ECB
ECB Says
Credit Standards Eased as Recovery Boosts Loan Demand – BB
Euro
area: Increasing loan demand – Nordea
ECB’s bank
lending survey reveals that loan demand by enterprises rose significantly in
the last quarter of 2014 giving support to a pick-up in lending to enterprises
going forward. Credit standards continued to be eased. These are clearly positive
signs amidst all the gloom, but the pressure on ECB to deliver something
substantial is still there.
Will
eurozone QE be too little, too late? – The
Guardian
Having
ramped up expectations, there is now a danger that the long-awaited sovereign
bond purchases prove a damp squib
Deflaters
gonna reflate – FT
How The
ECB's QE Is About To Send The Most Deflationary Signal Ever – ZH
Why The
ECB's QE Won't Work (In 4 Brief Minutes) – ZH
QE is
coming, but on German terms – The
Economist
Draghi seems
determined to adopt QE in some form, but he will have to compromise on the way
that the risks are shared among the euro-zone national central banks in order
to get the policy through.
QE and
central bank solvency
– Bruegel
The ECB
will most likely reveal on Thursday its plans for a program of sovereign bond
buying, as it steps up its efforts to stave the eurozone off deflation. In a
previous review, we addressed the question of whether the expansion of the
money base should be temporary or permanent to have a meaningful impact on
inflation. In this review, we provide background on the exacerbated concern of
what would happen to the Eurosystem’s capital resources if a country defaults
and, in particular, whether this would generate a fiscal transfer between
members.
Quantitative
easing will come! But how will it look? – TradingFloor
ECB very
unlikely to disappoint * Key questions concern size and risk sharing * Positive
outlook for USD and GBP
On the
consequences of Mr Draghi’s impending QE announcement – The
Economist
The idea of
asset purchases by national central banks, rather than by the ECB itself, may
be politically convenient but comes at the considerable cost of deepening the
perception that the euro zone is refusing to come together, not even in the
context of monetary policy.
Summers
Sees German Objections to Borrowing as Eurozone Hurdle – WSJ
5 Asset
Classes and European QE – WSJ
How
Investors Are Positioned for QE – WSJ
The ECB’s
Coming New Stance on QE – PIIE
Tensions
simmer over eurozone QE as investors buy up Spanish debt – FT
The ECB’s
QE programme must now happen — the eurozone economy is at stake
ECB has
a favourable wind for QE launch – FT
Corporate
borrowing for fixed investment is picking up
German ZEW
Investor Confidence Gains as Stimulus Nears – BB
Seasonally
adjusted government deficit down to 2.3% of GDP in the euro area – Eurostat
Household
saving rate nearly stable at 13.1% in the euro area – Eurostat
Business
investment rate nearly stable at 21.7% in the euro area – Eurostat
UNITED STATES
NAHB:
Builder Confidence decreased to 57 in January – Calculated
Risk
Homebuilder
Sentiment Misses, Future Sales Expectations Hit 7-Month Lows – ZH
NAHB Home
Builder Sentiment Declines – Bespoke
ASIA
China's
2014 economic growth misses target, hits 24-year low – Reuters
China Stimulus Kicks in to Help Keep 2014
Growth Near Target – BB
GDP growth
unchanged at 7.3% y/y, eases pressure for imminent easing – Danske
Bank
From a very
big base – The
Economist
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Schlesinger’s
Take: As Inflation Slips Further from Goal, Can Bank of Japan Watch and Wait? *
Fed Officials on Track to Raise Short-Term Rates Later in the Year * Fed’s
Bullard Eager to Raise Rates Soon * European Central Bank Nears Crucial Test of
Its Powers * China Economic Growth Is Slowest in Decades
Daily
Macro – WSJ
Market
enthusiasm is building ahead of the ECB’s policy meeting on Thursday. Sovereign
bond purchases seem to be a nailed on certainty. The questions merely focus on
size and terms. Equities and commodities have ticked up. At the same time,
other central banks are getting jittery about what it will mean for their
currencies.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Danish
central bank cuts rates * China rebounds, at least somewhat * The FX market: A
case of who is next?
Dollar
Marks Time, Yen Softens as Equities Recover – Marc
to Market
US Open – ZH
Global
Markets Rebound On ECB QE Hopes After IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast Again
FX
Update – TradingFloor
EURCHF
starts to claw its way back higher * USD scores overnight gains on EUR * Risk
appetite revival helps USDJPY
USD enjoys
a resurgence overnight * Signs of EURCHF stability * Copper running out of
steam * Yields for Swiss government bonds keep on falling
OTHER
The
Politics of Economic Stupidity – Project
Syndicate
Joseph E. Stiglitz:
In 2014, the world economy remained stuck in the same rut that it has been in
since emerging from the 2008 global financial crisis. But we know how to escape
our current malaise, which suggests that the big problem facing the world in
2015 is political, not economic.
International
banking statistics at end-September 2014 – BIS
International
banking activity continued to expand in the third quarter of 2014.
IMF OUTLOOK
IMF World
Economic Outlook (WEO) Update: Cross Currents – IMF
Podcast Olivier
Blanchard, on the State Of The World Economy –
IMF
Survey: Growth
outlook revised down despite cheaper oil and faster US growth – IMF
Video: Growth
outlook revised down despite cheaper oil and faster US growth – IMF
IMF cuts
global growth outlook, calls for accommodative policy – Reuters
The IMF’s
Top Economist On Weak Growth, Oil Prices and Market Turmoil – WSJ
In The
Latest IMF Comedy Of Errors These Charts Are Most Disturbing – ZH
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Kiina joutuu tyytymään vähempään | EKP julkistaa tuoreet
tiedot pankkien lainanannosta | Saksan liittokansleri Angela Merkel korosti
EKP:n riippumattomuutta
Suomi: Työvoiman kasvu ei uskottavaa – Nordea
Suomen työttömyysaste kohosi joulukuussa 9.2 prosenttiin.
Tämä luku ylittää kaikki ennusteet. Se saattaa kuitenkin yliarvioida
työttömyyden nousun. Tätä ajatusta puoltaa se, että työvoiman ja työllisten
nousevat trendit eivät ole nykyisessä suhdannetilanteessa lainkaan uskottavia.
Lähikuukausien tiedot kertonevat hieman vaatimattomammasta työttömyyden
noususta.
Taloustieteen professori: ”Onko ay-liike talouden veturi
vai kiviriippa?” – YLE
Taloustieteen professori Matti Virenin mielestä ammattiliittojen
asema on todella tukala. Hänen mielestään ay-liike ei tuota mitään lisäarvoa. Kaikki
minkä ay-liike hankkii jäsenilleen, on muilta pois.
Työttömyys Euroopassa kasvaa edelleen – uhkana
levottomuudet – Verkkouutiset
USA porskuttaa, muualla talouskasvuennustetta laskettu
– Verkkouutiset
Kansainvälinen valuuttarahasto IMF on laskenut ennustettaan
kuluvan vuoden maailman talouskasvulle.
Professorit hävisivät jo elvytyskeskustelun – HS
Suomen Pankki ja VM ovat eri mieltä professorineuvoston
kanssa elvytyksen lopettamistahdista
Joulukuun työttömyysaste 8,8 prosenttia – Tilastokeskus