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Tuesday, January 20

20th Jan - All eyes on ECB

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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German eurosceptic party at crossroads before key electionReuters
Sounding more like the economics professor he once was than the dangerous far-right firebrand some say he has become, Bernd Lucke spoke at length about the perils of the euro zone and unfettered immigration at a campaign rally last week.

Deepening the economic and monetary unionBruegel
Commissioner Moscovici's speech at the Bruegel event "Deepening Economic and Monetary Union"

Still No Exit for GreeceProject Syndicate
Greece's next government is likely to be led by the left-wing Syriza party, which plans to reject austerity and demand significant debt reduction. But the next government and its European creditors need to compromise, with Greece pursuing growth-promoting structural reforms in exchange for the fiscal space needed to allow the reforms to work.

As Switzerland Moves to Negative Rates, Finance Enters Uncharted TerritoryWSJ
Swiss Turmoil Spreading in Europe as Saxo, Credit Suisse HurtBB
What the SNB should have done – Lars Christensen
No, Swiss National Bank shareholders are not pulling the strings – JP Koning

Denmark Strikes Back at Speculators and Burnishes Peg DefensesBB
Time to buy some krone?FT

Results of the January 2015 euro area bank lending surveyECB
ECB Says Credit Standards Eased as Recovery Boosts Loan DemandBB
Euro area: Increasing loan demandNordea
ECB’s bank lending survey reveals that loan demand by enterprises rose significantly in the last quarter of 2014 giving support to a pick-up in lending to enterprises going forward. Credit standards continued to be eased. These are clearly positive signs amidst all the gloom, but the pressure on ECB to deliver something substantial is still there.

Will eurozone QE be too little, too late? The Guardian
Having ramped up expectations, there is now a danger that the long-awaited sovereign bond purchases prove a damp squib

Deflaters gonna reflateFT

How The ECB's QE Is About To Send The Most Deflationary Signal EverZH

Why The ECB's QE Won't Work (In 4 Brief Minutes)ZH

QE is coming, but on German termsThe Economist
Draghi seems determined to adopt QE in some form, but he will have to compromise on the way that the risks are shared among the euro-zone national central banks in order to get the policy through.

QE and central bank solvencyBruegel
The ECB will most likely reveal on Thursday its plans for a program of sovereign bond buying, as it steps up its efforts to stave the eurozone off deflation. In a previous review, we addressed the question of whether the expansion of the money base should be temporary or permanent to have a meaningful impact on inflation. In this review, we provide background on the exacerbated concern of what would happen to the Eurosystem’s capital resources if a country defaults and, in particular, whether this would generate a fiscal transfer between members.

Quantitative easing will come! But how will it look?TradingFloor
ECB very unlikely to disappoint * Key questions concern size and risk sharing * Positive outlook for USD and GBP

On the consequences of Mr Draghi’s impending QE announcement The Economist
The idea of asset purchases by national central banks, rather than by the ECB itself, may be politically convenient but comes at the considerable cost of deepening the perception that the euro zone is refusing to come together, not even in the context of monetary policy.

Summers Sees German Objections to Borrowing as Eurozone HurdleWSJ

5 Asset Classes and European QEWSJ

How Investors Are Positioned for QEWSJ

The ECB’s Coming New Stance on QEPIIE

Tensions simmer over eurozone QE as investors buy up Spanish debtFT

Martin Wolf: Bolder steps from Europe’s central bankersFT
The ECB’s QE programme must now happen — the eurozone economy is at stake

ECB has a favourable wind for QE launchFT
Corporate borrowing for fixed investment is picking up

German ZEW Investor Confidence Gains as Stimulus Nears – BB
Seasonally adjusted government deficit down to 2.3% of GDP in the euro area – Eurostat
Household saving rate nearly stable at 13.1% in the euro area – Eurostat
Business investment rate nearly stable at 21.7% in the euro area – Eurostat

NAHB: Builder Confidence decreased to 57 in January – Calculated Risk
Homebuilder Sentiment Misses, Future Sales Expectations Hit 7-Month Lows – ZH
NAHB Home Builder Sentiment Declines – Bespoke

China's 2014 economic growth misses target, hits 24-year low – Reuters
China Stimulus Kicks in to Help Keep 2014 Growth Near Target – BB
GDP growth unchanged at 7.3% y/y, eases pressure for imminent easing – Danske Bank
GDP Beats And Misses - Slowest Growth Since Tiananmen Square Sanctions Hit – ZH
From a very big base – The Economist
5 Takeaways From China’s GDP – WSJ

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Schlesinger’s Take: As Inflation Slips Further from Goal, Can Bank of Japan Watch and Wait? * Fed Officials on Track to Raise Short-Term Rates Later in the Year * Fed’s Bullard Eager to Raise Rates Soon * European Central Bank Nears Crucial Test of Its Powers * China Economic Growth Is Slowest in Decades

Daily MacroWSJ
Market enthusiasm is building ahead of the ECB’s policy meeting on Thursday. Sovereign bond purchases seem to be a nailed on certainty. The questions merely focus on size and terms. Equities and commodities have ticked up. At the same time, other central banks are getting jittery about what it will mean for their currencies.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Danish central bank cuts rates * China rebounds, at least somewhat * The FX market: A case of who is next?

Dollar Marks Time, Yen Softens as Equities RecoverMarc to Market

Global Markets Rebound On ECB QE Hopes After IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast Again

FX UpdateTradingFloor
EURCHF starts to claw its way back higher * USD scores overnight gains on EUR * Risk appetite revival helps USDJPY

From the floorTradingFloor
USD enjoys a resurgence overnight * Signs of EURCHF stability * Copper running out of steam * Yields for Swiss government bonds keep on falling

The Politics of Economic StupidityProject Syndicate
Joseph E. Stiglitz: In 2014, the world economy remained stuck in the same rut that it has been in since emerging from the 2008 global financial crisis. But we know how to escape our current malaise, which suggests that the big problem facing the world in 2015 is political, not economic.

International banking statistics at end-September 2014BIS
International banking activity continued to expand in the third quarter of 2014.

IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update: Cross Currents – IMF
Podcast Olivier Blanchard, on the State Of The World Economy – IMF
Survey: Growth outlook revised down despite cheaper oil and faster US growth – IMF
Video: Growth outlook revised down despite cheaper oil and faster US growth – IMF
IMF cuts global growth outlook, calls for accommodative policy – Reuters
The IMF’s Top Economist On Weak Growth, Oil Prices and Market Turmoil – WSJ
In The Latest IMF Comedy Of Errors These Charts Are Most Disturbing – ZH

Kiina joutuu tyytymään vähempään | EKP julkistaa tuoreet tiedot pankkien lainanannosta | Saksan liittokansleri Angela Merkel korosti EKP:n riippumattomuutta

Suomi: Työvoiman kasvu ei uskottavaaNordea
Suomen työttömyysaste kohosi joulukuussa 9.2 prosenttiin. Tämä luku ylittää kaikki ennusteet. Se saattaa kuitenkin yliarvioida työttömyyden nousun. Tätä ajatusta puoltaa se, että työvoiman ja työllisten nousevat trendit eivät ole nykyisessä suhdannetilanteessa lainkaan uskottavia. Lähikuukausien tiedot kertonevat hieman vaatimattomammasta työttömyyden noususta.

Taloustieteen professori: ”Onko ay-liike talouden veturi vai kiviriippa?”YLE
Taloustieteen professori Matti Virenin mielestä ammattiliittojen asema on todella tukala. Hänen mielestään ay-liike ei tuota mitään lisäarvoa. Kaikki minkä ay-liike hankkii jäsenilleen, on muilta pois.

Työttömyys Euroopassa kasvaa edelleen – uhkana levottomuudetVerkkouutiset

USA porskuttaa, muualla talouskasvuennustetta laskettuVerkkouutiset
Kansainvälinen valuuttarahasto IMF on laskenut ennustettaan kuluvan vuoden maailman talouskasvulle.

Professorit hävisivät jo elvytyskeskustelunHS
Suomen Pankki ja VM ovat eri mieltä professorineuvoston kanssa elvytyksen lopettamistahdista

Joulukuun työttömyysaste 8,8 prosenttiaTilastokeskus