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EUROPE
The
convergence dream 25 years on – Bruegel
Half of the
former communist countries did not converge to advanced EU countries from
1989-2014
GREECE
Germany Does Care About a Greek Exit – View
/ BB
Greek Bonds
Tumble As Report Sees "Decisive Victory" For Syriza – ZH
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Markets
position themselves ahead of ECB meeting – TradingFloor
Traders are
loading up on government bonds before the ECB's announcement on January 22,
which is expected to include details of an aggressive quantitative easing
program. But this strategy has not been confirmed and the ECB has other options
for increasing the monetary base.
Sliding
prices, falling euro, tumbling yields pressure ECB to act – TradingFloor
German
consumer prices are close to stagnating. This fuels the belief that Eurozone
inflation is embracing widespread deflation. It also negates all Bundesbank
arguments and adds weight to the case for ECB stimulus.
David Marsh:
the ECB plays wait-and-see – MarketWatch
Whatever
happens, as the campaign for the Greek election picks up steam, tussling over
blame and responsibility for the euro malaise will rise. In this highly charged
atmosphere, the ECB will wish to remain as neutral as possible.
ECB
considering three approaches to QE: Dutch paper – Reuters
1) ECB
itself buys bonds based on capital key 2) ECB buys only AAA-bonds c) national
central banks buy bonds based on capital key
MACRO NUMBERS
Euro-Area
Economy Menaced by Threat of Relapse – BB
U.K. Services Growth Is Least in 19 Months
– BB
UNITED STATES
Labour
market: downside risk to December payrolls – Danske
Bank
ISM
non-manufacturing declines more than expected in December – TradingFloor
December
Jobs "Significantly Below 200,000", Q4 GDP Tumbles To 2%, Markit
Warns – ZH
US Factory
Orders Drop Most YoY In 19 Months – ZH
ISM
Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 56.2% in December – Calculated
Risk
Service ISM
Tumbles To Lowest Since June – ZH
ISM
Services a Big Downer – Bespoke
ASIA
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: Greek Exit Worries and ECB Bond Purchases Take Center Stage * San
Francisco Fed’s Williams Sees no ‘Rush’ to Tighten Monetary Policy * IG to Play
Starring Role in Review of Fed * White House Expected to Nominate Community
Banker To Fed Board * Brinkmanship Returns to the Eurozone
Daily
Macro – WSJ
As Oil
Slumps, Systemic Risks Trump Cost Benefits in Investors’ Minds
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Eye-Opener
– Nordea
German
inflation close to freezing point * Liquidity pricing strongly suggests QE soon
* EURUSD to retest 1.20
Oil
Continues to Plunge, Equities Slip, Yen Rises – Marc
to Market
Euro-Dollar
Exaggerates Euro's Decline – Marc
to Market
Daily
Shot – TradingFloor
The great
oil slide ain't stopped yet * Iraq and Russia pump up production * BoJ's balance
sheet is a whopper
US Open – ZH
The Crunch
Continues: WTI Tumbles Under $49, 10Y Dips Below 2%
From the
floor – TradingFloor
JPY rides
risk-off sentiment on back of Grexit fears, lower oil price * USD facing "pivotal
day" ahead of US ISM, says Hardy * Greek fears overdone with some equities
beginning to look enticing, says Garnry * Shale sector distress on the rise as
oil price drift continues, says Hansen * Three-week 140 strike on EURJPY
highlighted as vols trading higher * Perky AUD pulls NZD higher as China
stimulus and HSBC PMI supports
OTHER
The
fiscal theory of monetary expansion – Frances
Coppola
Faux
monetary expansion by central banks is no substitute for the real expansion
caused by government deficit spending via commercial banks. So when the economy
is on the floor, monetary conditions are tight and banks not lending to the
private sector, unchain the fiscal authority - and stop worrying about
deficits.
Sovereign
debt projection tool
– FT
FINNISH
Vakaus luo epävakautta – Minsky-hetki ja uusi
talouskriisi ovat luultavasti jo lähellä – HS
Laskevat verotulot – Hannu
Visti