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Thursday, January 29

29th Jan - Danes lower rates, Germany in deflation

At some point, Denmark will abandon the peg. Might take 2 months or two decades. Probably between those two ;)

Either Denmark becomes SNB of past years and begins making money from the peg - or lets it go. Expect an expensive mistake from Danes: Denmark's CB will probably end up buying European crap assets, and only later abandon the peg. It should do it the other way around.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Great Graphic: Is Germany Going Where Japan has Never Been?Marc to Market
The Bundesbank is opposed to the ECB's bond buying.  But besides saying "nein" and expressing concerns about moral hazard, they have not offered alternative proposals to achieve their legal mandate, price stability… Monetary union before political union has never worked.  The tax payers of the creditor nations have been bled dry and have little appetite to give more.

What if Europe’s problem isn’t a lack of liquidity?FT
Europe’s investment gap may actually be the consequence of widespread flaws in the governance of European companies and banks, rather than simply the result of insufficient financing.

Populist arguments more pervasive in Western European countries – Europp
In France's suburbs, state neglect breeds resentment – Reuters
A uniquely French recipe for unrest – Reuters
Italian presidential vote to test Renzi government's stability – Reuters
Italy: bankruptcy as yet another indicator of divergence in EU– Bruegel

Norway Regulator Raises Warning Housing Market Is Out of Control – BB
Is Sweden an economically overrated country? – Tyler Cowen

Denmark: DN cuts for a third time in less than two weeksDanske Bank
Danish central bank cut rates again – FT
What, Denmark? Again? – WSJ
Denmark: FX is King – WSJ

Greece and the euro’s future: Go ahead, Angela, make my day – The Economist
Greek Bank Sell-Off: $11.4B Gone in Just Three Days – BB
Investors Turn On Tsipras’s Campaign to End Austerity in GreeceBB
Eurozone May Not Blink First in Confrontation With GreeceWSJ
Investors have woken up to Greece's nuclear risk – The Telegraph

Syriza and voodoo economics – FT
On Greek Debt, Feeling Like It’s 2012 – WSJ
Greece, EMU and democracy – Antonio Fatas
Greece turns Singaporean after divorcing EU for a Russian – Polemic’s Pains

Who’s (still) exposed to Greece?Bruegel
A first trace of normalisation and resume in confidence since 2013, which the present political turmoil risks to revert.

Chief Economist's Corner: Super Mario on new adventuresNordea
The bank plans to buy securities worth EUR 60bn a month starting in March this year and at least until September 2016. This is a substantial amount, and the programme is even launched after a period of historic monetary easing over the past several years.

Monetary developments in the euro area Dec 2014 – ECB
ECB's money supply (M3) rose by 3.6% y/y in December – TradingFloor
EZ loans to the private sector increaseDanske Bank
ECB’s Praet Sees Encouraging Signs on Money and Credit – WSJ
EZ credit cycle is turningCrédit Agricole

January 2015: Economic Sentiment increases slightly – EC
Economic confidence rises to 6-month high in the euro area – TradingFloor
Eurozone Consumers Expect Prices to Fall – WSJ

German unemployment rate falls to record low in January – Reuters
German Unemployment Drops for Fourth Month as Growth Strengthens – BB
German Unemployment Hits Lowest Level Since Reunification – WSJ
German unemployment declines – TradingFloor
Germany slumps into deflation in January – FT
German Inflation Rate Is Negative for First Time Since 2009BB

UK retail sales growth slows less than expected in January: CBI – Reuters
Lower Prices Get Spaniards Shopping as December Retail Surges – BB

5 Things to Watch in Friday’s U.S. GDP ReportWSJ

Who Doubts Yellen's Policies? Summers for OneBB
Janet Yellen is betting she has the formula for fending off deflationary forces. Investors and some of her fellow economists aren’t so sure.

7 Takeaways From Statement: ‘The Committee Judges That It Can Be Patient’ – WSJ
Economists React: ‘The Door is Still Open to a June Hike’ – WSJ
Deciphering the Fed: ‘Solid’ Beats ‘Moderate,’ and ‘Strong’ is Even Better – WSJ
The Case for Holding a Fed News Conference at Every Meeting – WSJ
FOMC meeting: More patience – Danske Bank

Redacted Version of the January 2015 FOMC Statement – David Merkel
FOMC Decision – Tim Duy
Fed’s Interest Rate Floor May Leak No More – WSJ
Fed turns more dovish - FOMC review – Nordea
Patient on rates, strong job gains and rising inflation in the medium term – Handelsbanken

Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged – WaPo
Fed Raises Assessment of Economy While Staying Patient on Rates – BB
Fed upbeat on U.S. economy, cites strong job gains – Reuters

Australia’s Central Bank on Track for Rate CutWSJ

Japan retail sales rise for six straight month in sign of recoveryReuters

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Amidst Many Distractions, Labor Market at Center of Fed Thinking *Fed Stays Patient on Rate Increases * Bank of England Chief Urges Eurozone Fiscal Union * ECB’s Praet Sees Encouraging Signs on Money and Credit * Australia’s Central Bank on Track for Rate Cut

Daily Macro: As Europeans Worry About Greece, Currency War Rolls OnWSJ
Greece remains the European focus as investors wonder whether the new Syriza government will trigger the country’s ejection from the single currency or whether some sort of compromise will be struck. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney stirred debate further by arguing in an overnight speech that core eurozone politicians need to relent on austerity, otherwise the single currency region faces another lost decade.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Fed leaves all doors open * New Greek government continuing to cause worries * Another big rally in US Treasuries

Majors Currencies Stuck in Range, while Antipodeans become UnstuckMarc to Market

Daily Shot: Greece is Europe's squeaky wheelTradingFloor
Greek yields spike on bellicose Syriza rhetoric * RBNZ hints that its ready to join the easing party * US oil inventories reach record levels

Markets Drift Without Direction As Zombified BTFDers Unable To Frontrun Hawkish Fed

FX Update: USD rallying again, but more data are neededTradingFloor
FOMC statement USD-supportive * Next targets in NZDUSD at 0.6870, 0.6450 * Today's US GDP data could move the USD

From the floorTradingFloor

Crude oil puts up a fight, but downside risk still highTradingFloor
Ole Hansen: WTI hits new low in Wednesday trading * EIA report shows no slowdown in US production * Interest in $40 March Put option high

Fed edelleen kärsivällinen – ja hieman varovaisempi | Euro ei Suomea nosta | Venäjän vähittäiskauppa kasvoi joulukuussa 5,3 prosenttia

Kokoomus romahti kolmoseksiYLE
Keskusta jatkaa ylivoimaisena ykkösenä, kun taas kokoomuksen kannatus syöksyy.

Suomen EU-tavoitteet vuodelle 2015Brysselin kone / YLE
Mitä ovat Suomen EU-politiikan avaintavoitteeet vuodelle 2015? Siitä puhuu yleisten asioiden yksikön päällikkö Satu Keskinen valtioneuvoston kanslian EU-sihteeristöstä.

Tulevaisuuden tekijät – Suomi ei pärjää ilman maahanmuuttoa – EVA
EVA Fakta: Kuka Suomessa tekee työt? – EVA
EVA: Maahanmuutto kaksinkertaistettava – YLE
Eva: Maahanmuuttajia tarvitaan tuplasti enemmän – TalSa
34 000 maahanmuuttajaa – "painakaa tämä luku mieleenne" – Verkkouutiset
Maahanmuuttajia vai asennemuuttajia? – Hannu Visti