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EUROPE
The
lesson from Greece: A 1930s-style depression creates
1930s-style politics
– WaPo
Matt
O’Brien: Austerity, in other words, isn't what Europe deserves blame for in Greece. Hard money is. Or, if you want to
go all the way back, creating the euro in the first place when textbook
economics said a crisis like this was inevitable if they did
What To
Do with the Extreme Wrongs? – euinside
The
political elites initially addressed with contempt and condescension the
"sprouts of democracy" and now, when they are a real political force,
which threatens not only their own seats but the EU as a project, the lack of
an adequate answer is impressive.
The
return of the German question – Europp
/ LSE
Why
conflict between creditor and debtor states is now the defining feature of
European politics
European
Regulators Pressure Big Banks to Increase Capital – WSJ
Banks
Encouraged to Raise Capital Well Above Formal Regulatory Limits
GREECE
Steen
Jakobsen on Greek election: It's really up to the ECB and EU now – TradingFloor
Juhani Huopainen:
Anti-austerity Syriza wins - debt talks ahead! – TradingFloor
Steen Jakobsen:
Syriza's Greek victory – the market responds – TradingFloor
Introducing
Yanis Varoufakis – Econospeak
Greece: Unstoppable force meeting an
immovable object – Nordea
George
Magnus: Who will blink now Syriza has won? – FT
Greece’s debt pile: is it really
unsustainable? – FT
The Greek
Stand-By Arrangement – Krugman
/ NYT
Anti-austerity
Syriza wins election – BBC
Greek
leftist leader Tsipras claims victory over austerity – Reuters
Syriza
Rides Anti-Austerity Wave to Decisive Victory in Greece – BB
Euro Slips
With Asian Equities on Greek Vote; Crude Sinks – BB
Tsipras to
form anti-bailout Greek government after big victory – Reuters
Greek
austerity after Syriza – FT
You can't
always get what you want – The
Economist
Greece's Vote to Keep the Euro – View
/ BB
Retaking
the Greek Test – Bruegel
Greek
Growth Drought Is Real Threat to EU – View
/ BB
Greek
election: the reality shock ahead – Berenberg
Has the
Greek Election Changed Anything? – WSJ
Key dates
as Syriza seeks debt relief – FT
After
Victory, Alexis Tsipras Forms Coalition Government – NYT
After Elections,
Country’s Creditors Seek Their Turn – NYT
Ending Greece’s Nightmare – Krugman
/ NYT
Greece’s Tsipras faces impossible trilemma
– David
Marsh / MarketWatch
Greece, the EU and Aunt Agatha – medium
Quicktake: Greece’s Fiscal Odyssey – BB
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB’s
last throw unlikely to be a winner – TradingFloor
History
suggests the ECB’s new program will not achieve its aim of generating 2%
inflation. Trying to generate “cost-push” inflation (a wage-price spiral) via
exchange rate depreciation hasn’t worked in a global disinflationary
environment.
Draghi
Plays Chess in Economy After Journey to Trillion-Euro QE – BB
Dutch
Central Bank Head Says He Doesn’t Support QE – WSJ
Great
Graphic: Shouldn't the ECB Target Core Inflation? – Marc
to Market
MACRO NUMBERS
Ifo
Business Climate index continues to rise – CESifo
German IFO
hits 6 month high in January – TradingFloor
German Ifo
increases in January – Merkelnomics
PMIs up,
ZEW expectations up – and now the Ifo as well – Nordea
UNITED STATES
FOMC
Preview: A little more patience – Danske
Bank
We expect
the statement to repeat that the FOMC can ‘be patient in beginning to normalize
the stance of monetary policy’. In December Yellen explained patient is
consistent with the Fed staying on hold for at least the coming two meetings. This
would in effect rule out hikes at the March and April FOMC meetings
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Derby’s Take: Fed Board Quiet In Run Up To Meeting * Fedspeak Cheatsheet:
What Are Fed Policy Makers Saying Ahead of Their Meeting? * Euro’s Big Drop
Puts U.S. Economy, Fed to the Test * ECB’s Draghi Calls for Deeper Economic
Integration of the Eurozone * Bank of England’s Rate Setter Suggests Need for
Earlier Rate Rise
Daily
Macro – WSJ
For Greece, it’ll probably be more of the
same, albeit with more antagonistic rhetoric. And for the eurozone general,
financial conditions will be dictated by the competing forces of central bank
liquidity and lackluster economic growth
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Eye-Opener – Nordea
NEW
financial forecasts – EUR/USD at parity and Bund yields below 1% * Greece votes strongly for change * Strong
bond rally continues
Syriza's
Victory is Not the End but the Beginning – Marc
to Market
Daily
Shot – TradingFloor
After the
Greek election again the Eurozone is in focus. What will the new government
bring? Also, we elaborate on why citizens' saving patterns are decisive for the
effects of quantitative easing.
US Open – ZH
Global Risk
Rattled By Syriza Surge To Power
FX
Update – TradingFloor
After an
overnight spike to 1.1100 in EURUSD, the Euro has stabilised in early European
trading after a clear-cut victory for the anti-austerity Syriza party in Greek
elections. Are the EURUSD bears overextended ahead of this Wednesday’s FOMC
meeting?
From the
floor – TradingFloor
The big
story from the floor today is the Greek election, where the anti-austerity
Syriza party have just secured a major victory. According to Saxo Bank head of
FX strategy John Hardy, the win gives Athens a great deal of power relative to
the European Central Bank and this story will continue to play out over the
coming months.
OTHER
KVP's
Macro Take: Risk-on Europe and a move to the Dark Side – TradingFloor
Failing a
Greek bombshell, only one thing on my mind, Risk-ON in Europe! * Go long
euro-zone equities favouring the peripherals * Stay long European credit and
maintain the short positions on EURUSD, EURGBP
The
Matrix: A strategist’s roving thoughts – TradingFloor
Kay
Van-Petersen: Look to play equities in Asia, with a thematic lowering of rates blanketing
the region * Long Indonesia credit versus Malaysia credit has macro fundamental merits
on a number of grounds * A dovish shift from the FOMC could see a short-term
big correction in the USD strength
It’s not
the euro that’s getting cheaper; it’s the dollar that’s getting more expensive – FT
EURUSD:
cheaper than usual, but for good reasons – Nordea
EUR/USD has
recently fallen below its long-term average, helped lower by economic and
policy divergences. As we expect these divergences to persist, it makes sense
for the EUR to cheapen further vs the USD. While valuation will increasingly be
of concern; it need not necessarily be an immediate trigger for a stronger EUR.
In the year 2000 for instance, EUR/USD dropped to 0.85, which was then 27%
below its PPP fair value. The next few months may offer good selling
opportunities.
FX:
QEphoric – Nordea
The 1.12 is
HUGE for EURUSD. A post-QE bounce this week possible...ditto the rates.
Friday's US wage data key. EMs!
Macro
Stress Indicators: Energy risk-off vs Equities risk-on – TradingFloor
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Kreikka ja USA tämän viikon markkina-ajurit |
Vasemmistolainen Syriza-puolue odotetusti vaalivoittaja | Euroalueen
ostopäällikköindeksi nousi odotettua enemmän
EU, maahanmuutto ja monikulttuurisuus – Brysselin
kone / Yle
Europarlamentaarikko Jussi Halla-aho ei kannata euroa, eikä
myöskään kannata europarlamentin vallan kasvua, koska se hänen mukaansa siirtää
päätösvaltaa pienten maiden kansalaisilta isojen maiden kansalaisille.
Vaikutuksista viis, EKP vahvistaa paukkuja – Jan
Hurri / TalSa
uroalueen keskuspankki EKP aloittaa erittäin mittavat mutta
ristiriitaiset valtionlainaostot. Se sanoo ostojen elvyttävän euroalueen taloutta,
luotonantoa ja inflaatiota, vaikka nämä ovat epävarmoja tavoitteita tai
tekosyitä. Varmat vaikutukset ovat kiusallisempia: EKP:n ostot tukevat
eurovaltioiden alijäämien rahoittamista ja finanssivarallisuuden arvonnousua.
Yleisö kantaa riskit.
Kriittinen optimisti – KL
Vuonna 1994 valtiovarainministeriön korkea virkamies Sixten
Korkman vastusti julkisesti Suomen menoa rahaliittoon. Tänään vapaa professori
tekee pesäeroa niin euron tuhon ennustajiin kuin Euroopan liittovaltiosta
unelmoiviin.
[2009] Väitöskirja: Julkisella mielipiteellä ei ollut
merkitystä Poliittinen eliitti valmisteli EMU-päätöksen salaisesti – Uralehti
Väikkäri
löytyy täältä.
EKP:n määrällisen helpottamisen vaikutuksista – Raha
ja Talous
Näkökulma: Arvotaan seuraava meppi – IL
Teollisuuden tuottajahinnat joulukuussa -1,8% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Palvelujen
tuottajahinnat loka-joulukuussa +0.8% YoY – Tilastokeskus
KREIKKA
Suomen, Saksan ja Kreikan talouksien kohtalonyhteys – Professorin
ajatuksia
Kantaako Syrizan uho? – Vesa
Varhee / TalSa
"Troikan ja Kreikan on nyt neuvoteltava
lupauksista" – TalSa
EKP "ei voi sopia" velkahelpotuksista Kreikalle – TalSa
Syriza ja taloudellinen vääntö – Kreikalla on paremmat
kortit uskoisi – Tyhmyri
Voiko, haluaako Kreikka maksaa velkansa? – Sixten Korkman / HS
Halvalla menee, Paavo! – KL
"Perussuomalaiset hyödyntävät Kreikka-korttia" – TalSa
Vanhan vallan kreikkalainen kujanjuoksu – Simon
Elo / US
Totuuden hetki lähestyy – Sampo Terho
Etlan Vihriälä: ”Syrizan pitää lieventää vaalilupauksiaan” –
IS
Näkökulma: Eurokriittisten äänistä kilpailu keskustan ja
perussuomalaisten välillä – YLE