MoreLiver's Daily: November 2012

Friday, November 30

30th Nov - US Close

JPY moving.

29th Nov - US Open: Eerie Ireland

Ireland studies the Greek bailout for ideas on how to exit its own bailout-hell. ECB is happy as it does not need to publish details of how Goldman Sachs helped Greece to hide its debt in order to get the euro membership. Happy times.

28th Nov - US Close: Fed Fades, Finnish Fun

The German parliament votes on the latest stealth haircut of the Greek debt on Friday. More on Greece in my earlier posts. And big shout out to Mr. Hurri!

Notice the news that German parliament votes on the Greek package on Thu - and this might be postponed. The Greek event risk apparently never goes away.

27th Nov - US Close: SuloRientoLiukas-measures

Katainen Kreikka-päätöksestä: Näitä asioita ei kannata millimetripaperilla mittailla – YLE

yksi Öllisentti = 1 miljardi euroa, jakaantuu 10 Käteismilliin = á 100 miljoonaa euroa. – Sulo Riento Liukas

More on Greece in my morning post. OECD's latest outlook is published - check it out, probably has something that will move the markets later. One thing to add: Germany's parliament votes on Greece on Thursday - so we have a new risk event.

26th Nov - US Close: Greek talks go on and on...

Macronomics is...back!...with another weaponized* credit analysis.

*to adapt (a chemical, bacillus, etc) in such a way that it can be used as a weapon

Outrageous predictions for 2013:

Europe’s step to solution & Senkaku islands

BND report kills bailout of Cyprus

25th Nov - Weekender: Off-Topics & In Finnish

First Europe, US, Asia - followed by some Economics and Markets.

24th Nov - Weekender: Weekly Support

Here are the links to review the past week and get ahead with the next one (previous Weekly Support here).

24th Nov - Weekender: Best of The Week

The best picks from my posts since last Friday

German IFO came out well above expectations – and rising. No good news from the EU’s budget talks. Plenty of action reported in FX option markets – someone is buying large amounts of at-the-money options – makes sense with all the event risks and the current very low volatility.

EURUSD keeps ticking higher, EU budget talks gridlocked, German IFO index today's main event.

22nd Nov - Fun (in Finnish)

Happy holidays, no US close update today. Here's links to Europe's and China's latest PMI numbers and EU budget talks. Greece postponed to Monday.

EU budget talks commence today – expect nasty comments from participants. US Thanksgiving keeping things quiet – stops might be cheap on low-volume, algo-driven day. China's PMI came out positive.

21st Nov - US Close: Greece Open, Budget Ahead

Good evening! Usual Euro-related horror stories, plus plenty of links in Finnish.

JPY has been very weak after the talk on possible inflation targeting by the BoJ...

20th Nov - US Close

Source: FT alphaville

Bernanke talked - nothing interesting, except the 'surprise' that FED cannot do fiscal policy, so the cliff must be solved. Some sort of peaceful solution in Middle-East looks probable.

Sorry about the late post - had to finally get some sleep :)

19th Nov - US Close: Rally

Spain bad loans reached EUR 182.2bln in September according to the Bank of Spain

Italian Industrial Orders SA (Sep) M/M -4.0% vs. Exp. -1.0% (Prev. 0.7%)

Lots of stuff to kick off the US holiday-shortened week. Check my most excellent and recently updated 'Weekly Support' for the weeklies. Short version: US holiday on Thu, Fri probably a dead day as well. Important European macro on Thu&Fri, EURUSD again trying the 1.28 resistance level. Friday's US close seemed a bit more positive, so a possibility of a minor rally. BoJ meeting ahead - probably on pause ahead of elections.

Another great one from Macronomics.

18th Nov - Weekender: Off-Topics & Finnish

I'll try to post a Views-post on Sunday.

Before my usual linkcollection, I would like to point out the following gems that you might have missed:

Bernanke's College Lecture Series:The Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4 (youtube videos, approximately 60-70 mins each)

George Soros: Open Society, the Financial Crisis, and the Way Ahead – Open Society (links to youtube videos, excellent, including Q&A clips)

Europe is experiencing all the problems at the same time - real economy tanking, world not looking good, PIIGS suffering, political will weaning. The only thing that is not bad is the market pressure. Market pressure is kept away by Draghi's promise. In US, until recently relatively good data has now started to surprise to the downside - corporate earnings and real economy are looking cold, while fiscal cliff and uncertainty over monetary policy is troubling the markets. China got themselves new leaders, and it looks like it will be more of the same - playing tough on corruption but not reforming the economy. In other words - it seems all the bad news are already out in the world - a perfect opportunity to buy risk assets. But one thing I don't get - what happens when market pressure on Europe is back on? Thus, only tactical longs, boys and girls.

16th Nov - Weekender: Weekly Support

The ending week in review, and the next one previewed. MoreLiver is also here now.

Yes, MoreLiver is there now.

Just the regulars now - next up the usual Weekender posts. And check out my new gig:

The best from the ending week's posts.

See my last night's long post for plenty of high-quality reads. For additional commentary, check my new morning piece. Tension in Middle East, US budget talks, China's new leadership. EURUSD trying to drop after rejecting 1.28 level. No convincing moves in equity indices as of yet - potential double bottom developing in SPX, but too early to say. Europe looks just as doomed as for the past couple of years. Same old, same old.

15th Nov - US Close

Both EURUSD (testing bear channel resistance @ 1.28) and SPX near 'critical' levels. Europe is considered to be in a recession and the 2013 does not look any easier. Sweden is also worsening, but at least they have monetary policy left: EURSEK near resistance levels currently. Friday comes with triple-witching expiration in US, and next week the US will have a long weekend. I believe it will be an interesting day to end the week.

The SPX has now fallen to my target levels - I'll update my views in the next post. JPY weakness is an interesting development, given the current risk-off sentiment. See last evening's post - plenty of good ones there.

14th Nov - US Close

Huge post - and what a day. Markets tumbled, Bank of England was softer than expected, terrible numbers again from Europe - though within expectations.

What do people who are not good enough to become sell-side analysts do? That's right - they work for IMF, ECB and EU Commission. See the pic.

Now this is a sight for sore eyes.

13th Nov - US Close

To "KalkkisPena", enjoy!

Last evening's 'US Close' was good. Check it.

12th Nov - US Close: Greece and American oil

Plenty of stuff, for a US holiday. Japan started the week with even worse than expected GDP numbers. This was followed by an utterly useless Eurogroup meeting, where Greece was discussed. The early version of the Troika's report was leaked and is available and commented on FT's alphaville blog, links below.

International Energy Agency came out with a report and projected that US will overtake Saudi Arabia in terms of oil production by 2020. That's some heavy news and has a lot of implications financially and strategically.

Reformed Broker came out with a nice idea that 2013 will be a play between fiscal issues and housing. If the housing markets take off, the economy could be saved, but also the budget cuts and tax hikes could take the economy down. It could be a question which one 'shoots first'

US markets open, though banks are closed for the Veteran's Day. Eurogroup meeting will be deemed a success, if they can kick the can over the next Friday's t-bill expiration. That's how great things are at the moment.

US holiday today. To really get into this week, try the 'Weekly Support' below.

11th Nov - Credit Guest: Froth on the Daydream

Another ‘big one’ from Macronomics.

I'll write a separate Views-post later today, after doing some chores. Happy Father's Day to my Finnish audience. As a gift, see the links to the documentary, get some coffee & cognac and enjoy the ride.

Positive economic surprise index running high in US, while earnings are rolling over badly and threat scenarios abound. Everyone complaining about the high risk appetite, record-low yields, record-high issuance of high-yield debt (junk bonds). To me this all sounds like the bad news have become almost fully priced in - the SPX has not much room left below - soon some positive news will make risk markets jump back up again. ECB statement? Merkel coming out? Or most likely, that Greece is 'solved', and the US politicians are eager to avoid the fiscal cliff as they learned their lesson from the debt ceiling debacle. I'll update my chart views on the next Weekender-post.

10th Nov - Weekender: EU, US, Asia

The week's main event was supposedly the election in US. In reality, the main event was the decision to postpone decisions on Greece, lousy macro numbers from Europe, and the falling stock markets. Remember how we were told that any Grexit was kindly asked to be delayed until Obama got re-elected? He is now elected. Greece has voted 'yes' on austerity measures and will do so again on Monday. Troika's report has been read. What are they waiting for, and why they decided to delay the decision until 26-Nov? I think I'm onto something here - I'll try to figure this out.

Here are the links to help you review the ending week – and prepare for the next one. You might also want to see the previous ‘Weekly Support’. The missing links will be updated when the articles are published. The embedded youtube video is the 1989 video of "Just A Techno Groove" by a band called "Dow Jones". Must....palm....face....

9th Nov - US Close

Just the regulars now, get ready for my usual Weekender-posts.

Picks from my ending week's posts (previous Best of The Week here).

Check my previous post for some views & good links.

8th Nov - US Close

ECB did nothing, as was expected. In Europe the biggest news was that the decision on Greece is postponed to 26-Nov. Another round of terrible numbers from Europe, with record unemployment in crisis countries. EURUSD keeping in a narrow range and hardly reacting to negative headlines - so looks like plenty of negativity is already priced into the pair. SPX falling again like a rock, and looking at a weekly chart we are getting near levels where I would like to be a buyer. Around 1350? Everyone seems to be talking about that level. That would imply we never get there. If we see 1360, that's it, then. Done. Mine at 1360. I'll sort out my EURUSD view later.

BoE stood still - ECB soon.

Greece voted 'Jawohl' on austerity, next vote on Sunday. Today the main events are BoE and ECB meetings - Draghi has been getting more vocal - if you can call stating the obvious as being vocal. China pretends electing new leadership. Some sort of event risk could be seen coming from there - e.g. isolationism announcements or backtracking on reform.

7th Nov - US Close: Support in Short Supply

Source: Thomson Reuter

Very risk-off day today, both stocks and euro sold off heavily. Basically, bad European numbers coupled with Draghi's warning that Germany is starting to get its share of the crisis were the main drivers. So why was this so bad? Perhaps because Merkel and other key decision makers are still pulling their feet. By being forced to state that aloud, I interpret that behind the curtains there is no solid plan and commitment to it. Draghi tried to put pressure on Merkel. This means that polite private explanation of the issues did not work. And now, as everyone is getting publically smeared by everyone else, chances of finding a politically acceptable mutual solution are growing thin.

Euro selling off, for several reasons:

we had a break to the downside from a technical range
Greece votes on austerity measures (risk of losing further bailouts)
Spain's budget forecasts are based on growth forecasts that nobody, including the European Commission, believes anymore
Bad growth numbers overall -> debt defaults approaching

Now that the US elections are over, people will refocus on the European crisis (Greece foremost, but secondly Spain) and then then US fiscal cliff.

6th Nov - US Close

Election day, real event risks ahead, (Greece votes on Wed on Troika-required savings, Thursday ECB's and BoE's meetings), so I'm expecting less dramatic markets today.

Posting early and updating as stuff comes online. Notice my previous election special.

Some article links I've featured previously and new ones as well. Updates at the bottom of the post.

5th Nov - US Close: Election Eve

The commentators seem to be saying that the stock market correction is not yet over - while the elections and possible risk-positive news could cause short-term spasms of optimism, the earnings, fiscal cliff and Europe loom large.

EURUSD breaking lower from the range. SPX still sitting near the range's bottom.

Just wow... Tue, US elections, Thu ECB and BoE. Open questions: Greece, Spain, Eurogroup meeting, ECB’s collateral policies and divergence between economic data of Europe and US. Most pressing issue now is the ECB’s reaction to the news presented below: the collateral provided by Spain has not been marked down appropriately. For your market needs, I suggest taking a look at the Weekly Support below.

4th Nov - Views

Quick views: Event risks ahead, European situation deteriorating again, so I'm very careful now. Every time the euro crisis is 'on', we can expect surprise statements from several people, often contradicting each other. Quick swings, technical trading, keeping size light as volatility will be higher than in the past weeks.

Another 'stop the presses' post by Martin of Macronomics.

3rd Nov - Weekender: Off-Topics & Finnish

Wow, this was a long post, but plenty of enjoyable articles. For my Finnish audience, I'm especially happy about the several links to 80's-90's scene at the bottom of the post. I will post my market views on Sunday evening. The video clip is to celebrate some good news I got. Sorry if you don't get the joke.

Some longer background articles that I've come across in the past week.

2nd Nov - Weekender: Weekly Support

Last week's most excellent review and the week ahead under the microscope. See my earlier posts for even more link madness.

To end the week... usual Weekender-posts coming up next, beginning with the Weekly Support.

The best links from the ending week's posts. Previous 'Best'.

Payrolls coming up (updated today's EU Open post)

It’s payrolls today.

1st Nov - US Close

Greece is in deep, deep trouble - or rather, the creditors are in trouble and Greece will soon be just fine. Which shall it be, more 'extend and pretend' or mini-meltdown? In US, it will be about the elections, and result rests on tomorrow's employment numbers. Bad numbers: Romney wins. Ok to good numbers: Obama wins.

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Friday, November 30

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