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Wednesday, November 14

14th Nov - US Close

Huge post - and what a day. Markets tumbled, Bank of England was softer than expected, terrible numbers again from Europe - though within expectations.

What do people who are not good enough to become sell-side analysts do? That's right - they work for IMF, ECB and EU Commission. See the pic.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups and Commentary
Markets – Between The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT

Tomorrow’s Tape: Jobless Claims, Retail EarningsWSJ 
Europe: Late-Day Equity Ramp But European Bonds Ain't Buying It – ZH
US: Deer Emerges As Stocks Slump Half Way To Reality – ZH

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Economic Calendar – Forexpros

Greece: continuing the disastrous ‘squeeze and hope’ strategymainly macro
One interpretation of this disagreement is that it signals the IMF is beginning to accept that the Troika’s previous strategy of ‘squeeze and hope’ has not worked, but European governments and institutions are still refusing to recognise that reality.

Goodbye euro, hello recessionDie Zeit / presseurop
What would happen if Germany left the euro? Economist Gustav Horn of the Hans-Böckler Foundation, which has close ties to trade unions, speculates on what would happen in the days following a German exit from the euro – and on what Germany's most popular euro-critic, Thilo Sarrazin, might also say.

Where Spain Is Worse Than GreeceWSJ
Greece enjoys one formidable advantage over Spain: Its economy is running well below capacity, while the Spanish economy, despite an unemployment rate around 25%, is operating relatively close to full steam.

Chart of the day: European PMI & RecessionPragCap

Merry Christmas and a recessionary new yearalphaville / FT
SocGen, Nomura and Oxford Economics are pessimistic: In mid-2008, despite positive economic surprises, the economy had actually entered recession six months earlier and profits were already declining sharply. Yet, in mid-2008 virtually no economist accepted that the US economy had already entered recession! That is exactly what I believe is happening today.

As Good As It GetsZH
SocGen's Albert Edwards: despite the upside economic surprises, profits have been spiralling downwards.

  FOMC Minutes
Fed Says ‘a Number’ on FOMC Saw Need for Additional QEBB
(more) talk about qualitative thresholds – Danske Bank (pdf)
Members Expect More Monetization After Twist Ends, As Expected – ZH
QE4 soon to come – The Big Picture
"Participants generally favored" Thresholds – Calculated Risk
More QE Isn’t a Done Deal; Stocks Tumble – MarketBeat / WSJ
Lots of talk, no action, on new strategy – Wonkblog / WP
Participants concerned QE thresholds could confure public – alphaville / FT

The end of one big stagnationFree exchange / The Economist
In other words, those itching for a more expansionary monetary policy may have taken heart at Barack Obama's re-election, since he is widely expected to name the relatively dovish Ms Yellen to the chairmanship after Mr Bernanke departs.

Yellen’s quiet revolution at the FedMacroScope / Reuters

  Retail Sales
Decrease for First Time in 4 Months – BB
Declined 0.3% in October – Calculated Risk
Grim Picture For Holiday Shopping – ZH
Retail sales and PPI – The Big Picture

The decline of Japanese companies illustrated by the CDS marketMacronomics

Australia's fundamentals continue to weaken; AUD should followSober Look

Xi Jinping’s Economic ChallengeThe Diplomat

EU, US economic surprise indices divergeSober Look

Daily Quickie HistorySquared
Chart of Financial Repression and Real Interest Rates; Money Market Exposure; Bubble Morphs in Form, Still Growing

The Misdirection of Currency WarsMarc to Market
Currency wars then, in either expression, seem to be more in the realm of rhetoric than politics. There has been a long and sustained push from the developed countries to get emerging markets to embrace more flexible currency regimes. The adoption of unorthodox monetary policy by the U.S., Europe and Japan may, on the margins, increase such pressure but few have capitulated.

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