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Sunday, November 25

25th Nov - Weekender: World & Markets



First Europe, US, Asia - followed by some Economics and Markets.


Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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EUROPE
(Video) Take 15: Eurozone Crisis: Is the End in Sight?CFA Institute
Wolfgang M√ľnchau, the European economic columnist for the Financial Times and the managing director at Eurointelligence.com, discusses the current state of the eurozone crisis and potential resolutions. He explains potential implications of a breakup and the costs and benefits to various countries across the region. (recorded 7-Nov)

Brussels blog round up for 17– 23 Novembereuropp / LSE
Budget troubles, France is downgraded, and are European young farmers facing extinction?

Should Europe Emulate the US?bruegel
Europe, by contrast, put early emphasis on restoring fiscal sustainability, but neglected its private-sector maladies… As a result, Europe emerged from the recession with too many zombie banks, wounded households, and struggling companies. In Germany, the private economy was fit enough to recover, but this was less true in southern Europe or even France.

Banking Union and ambiguity: Dare to go furthervoxeu.org
The Eurozone is moving towards a banking union, with the ECB at its centre. This column argues that there are worrying problems with the proposals, suggesting that the ECB ought to follow a principle of ‘constructive ambiguity’ if it wants to maintain and improve its credibility as a supervisor.

Leaders break off EU budget talkseuobserver
EU leaders on Friday decided to break off 2014-2020 budget negotiations after a second compromise attempt failed to reconcile those wanting cuts and those asking for more money.

Overview of Liquidity Conditions in Euro AreaMarc to Market

  GERMANY
For Germany, It Takes More Than a Swallow to Make a SummerWSJ

Germany Edges Towards Keeping Euro AliveWSJ

Is Germany's economy turning the corner?Sober Look

Bundesbank's Financial Stability Review - the risks to the German financial systemBIS (pdf)
Speech by Dr Andreas Dombret / Bundesbank

Bundesbank's Financial Stability Review - the risks to the German financial systemBIS (pdf)
Opening statement by Ms Sabine Lautenschläger / Bundesbank

  SPAIN
All eyes on Catalan electioneuobserver
Catalans will cast their vote for a new regional assembly on Sunday in an election that could have considerable consequences for Catalonia and the rest of Spain.

Rising tensions before Catalan votealphaville / FT

Catalonia election: The obsession with independencepresseurop

  GREECE
After The Fat Lady SingsA Fistful of Euros
The curious thing about the holdup in this case is that it isn’t the result of a stand-off between the Troika and the Greek government.  Last week the Greek parliament passed the final set of budget decrees required by the international lenders to enable the transfer. No, in this case the dispute is an “internal affair” between the rival parties which make up the Troika, and in particular between the German government and the IMF.

On Europe's Apparent UtopiaZH
Credit Suisse: The inability, yet again, of the Eurogroup to reach an agreement in the absence of market stress we don’t think bodes well for the ECB-backed positive market environment to be sustained into 2013.

The Greek Debt Buyback 'Boondoggle' - Questions AnsweredZH

Dumb Troika Plans for GreeceThe Trader

UNITED STATES
Why We Can't Take Inflation Hawks SeriouslyTim Duy’s Fed Watch

Art Cashin: "Is US Economic Growth Over?"ZH
Economic growth has been regarded as a continuous process that will persist forever. But there was virtually no economic growth before 1750, suggesting that the rapid progress made over the past 250 years could well be a unique episode in human history rather than a guarantee of endless future advance at the same rate.

The Europe-in-Rubble ExcuseKrugman / NYT
Whenever I point out how well America did with strong unions and highly progressive taxation after World War II, I can count on conservatives trying to resolve their cognitive dissonance by saying “but it was easy then

Q3 GDP Expected at 2.8%PragCap
  
ASIA
Is An 18% JPY Devaluation The 'Best-Case' Scenario For Abe's 'New' Japan?ZH

China’s Communist party: how do you get admitted?beyondbrics / FT

Japan: The Old Weigh On the Young and the EconomyThe Big Picture

ECONOMICS
Macroeconomic adjustment and the history of crises in open economiesvoxeu.org
Are countries that have previously experienced banking crises less vulnerable to them in the future? This column argues that, in fact, previous crises might make future crises more likely. There isn’t much evidence of a learning process from past mistakes because the regulator often lags behind banking’s pace of innovation. Preparing to prevent the last crisis does not prevent the next and it seems that the ‘too big to fail’ doctrine provides cover for banks, delaying the day of adjustment.
http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/8738

Spain’s Banking Problems Are a Global RealityWSJ
Accounting rule changes and official indulgence in kicking non-performing loans down the road through “amend and pretend” measures mean that there’s a lot further to go before the mountain of unsupportable debt is resolved. And until it is, economies will continue to struggle on.

Monetary policyFree exchange / The Economist
Making better institutions, in America and Europe

MARKETS
Citi ends its decade-long ill-fated love affair with hedge fundsSober Look

Infographic on hedge fund industryMarket Folly

New Trading Case Casts a Deeper Shadow on a Hedge Fund MogulDealBook / NYT

Another Overnight Return PuzzleFalkenblog

Dark Trading: Is It Hurting Market Quality?CFA Institute

Equity Portfolio Optimization with Factor Tiltsdshort

Why is housing such a popular investment? A new psychological explanationvoxeu.org
Despite its meagre real returns in the long run, many people still think that investing in housing is a good idea. This column argues that a major reason for the tendency to buy houses is that it’s rare to lose money. Recent research shows people’s perceptions of housing transactions to be shaped by whether they gain or lose money – above and beyond the real returns.

Still think you can beat the market?Tim Harford
The search for anomalies covers an almost unlimited number of potential patterns. Some of them may be real, but many emerge by chance alone

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