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Friday, November 23

23rd Nov - US Open: IFO up, nervous FX

German IFO came out well above expectations – and rising. No good news from the EU’s budget talks. Plenty of action reported in FX option markets – someone is buying large amounts of at-the-money options – makes sense with all the event risks and the current very low volatility.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups & Commentary
US Opening News And Market Re-Cap – Ransquawk / ZH
Frontrunning – ZH
Overnight: Black Friday Fails To Bring A Budget Deal For EuropeZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Today’s front pages – presseurop
Daily press summary – Open Europe
  Van Rompuy adjusts budget proposal to appease France, Italy and Poland; Key EU leaders do not expect a deal to be reached at this summit

Morning MarketBeat: Black Friday No Picnic for Retail Stocks – WSJ
Broker Note Briefing – WSJ
Euro Rises despite Official Failures, Yen ConsolidatesMarc to Market

US session ahead
Pre-market Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market Trading – CNNMoney
Pre-Market – NASDAQ
Earnings & Events – The Street
MarketCurrents – Seeking Alpha

Debt crisis live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Economic Calendar – Forexpros

German property: Euro angst hits homeThe Economist
Big cities feel the rush into bricks and mortar

Speech Mario Draghi: Rationale and principles for Financial UnionECB

Milking the budgetThe Economist
Even in times of austerity, Europe spends too much subsidising rich farmers

EU Budget Summit Heading toward FailureSpiegel
Despite hours of talks in Brussels on Thursday night, European Union leaders made little progress toward agreement on the bloc's budget for the years 2014 to 2020. Britain and other countries have remained steadfast in their demands for cuts. A second summit looks to be the only likely outcome.

Looking to the New Year?Open Europe
With trouble flaring up in Greece once more and the backstop of the ECB’s bond-buying (OMT) in place, Spain has slipped off the radar slightly. It now seems likely that any request for a sovereign bailout (of one form or another) will be pushed back until the New Year.

Centrifugal Spain: Umbrage in CataloniaThe Economist

Glimmer of Greek hope MacroScope / Reuters

Your tax money is about to be blown in GreeceMarketWatch
Commentary: Debt forgiveness is the only way out of this mess

Ifo Business Climate Brightens SlightlyCESifo
German Business Confidence Unexpectedly Climbed in NovemberBB
Euro area: Ifo is bottoming out and pointing to further improvementDanske Bank (pdf)
Euro-zone outlook not as gloomy as recent headlines suggestNordea

Exports, consumption drive meager German growth in third quarterReuters
Exports and private consumption helped Germany to keep growing in the third quarter of 2012, albeit at a slower rate than previously, as Europe's largest economy felt the pinch of the euro zone crisis.

Morning Briefing (EU/US): DrowseBNY Mellon
End-of-week reflections on the Euro-area

Weekly PreviewBNY Mellon

Global Week Ahead: Continued focus on policymakersNordea (pdf)
Focus is likely to be on the US fiscal cliff debate and Greece. Revised US Q3 GDP is the most important data release. Overall we expect no major data surprises compared to consensus estimates.

Weekly Credit UpdateDanske Bank (pdf)

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