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Wednesday, November 7

7th Nov - US Open: € Well Offered

 Euro selling off, for several reasons: 

  • we had a break to the downside from a technical range
  • Greece votes on austerity measures (risk of losing further bailouts)
  • Spain's budget forecasts are based on growth forecasts that nobody, including the European Commission, believes anymore
  • Bad growth numbers overall -> debt defaults approaching 

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups & Commentary
US Opening News And Market Re-Cap – Ransquawk / ZH
Frontrunning – ZH
Overnight Sentiment – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Today’s front pages – presseurop
Daily press summary – Open Europe

Morning MarketBeat: Be Aware of Election Hangover – WSJ
Broker Note Briefing – WSJ

US session ahead
Pre-market Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market Trading – CNNMoney
Pre-Market – NASDAQ
Earnings & Events – The Street
MarketCurrents – Seeking Alpha

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Economic Calendar – Forexpros

Some more (draft) bad news for the Spanish governmentOpen Europe
If confirmed, the Commission's forecasts will deal another blow to the credibility of the Spanish government - not least because Madrid decided to stick to outdated growth predictions to table its budget for next year, despite the IMF and others clearly warning that the recession was going to be much worse.

The vote that counts for marketsMacroScope / Reuters
Greek parliament votes today on austerity (Troika insists). Expectation is a deal with two years more time, maturity extension and interest rate cut. European Commission sees Spain unable to meet deficit targets as the recession is deepening.

A sunset clause for Europe's banking unionBruegel
The final shape of the European banking union should therefore look differently from what is currently on the table. It should be based on a strong supervisor who can be held to account by a strong parliament, but who takes decisions independently of monetary policy.

Finland: Exports boosted growth in Q3Nordea (pdf)
The volume of exports increased from Q2 while the volume of imports decreased. Compared to 2011Q3, imports fell sharply but exports hardly at all.

Draghi still waiting for RajoyDanske Bank (pdf)
No action expected. Also a good review of measures left in the toolbox of the ECB.

ECB Preview: Watch Greece and SpainMarc to Market
The focus, as is often the case, will be on the press conference. Here two countries will likely dominate the discussion Greece and Spain.

ECB in wait-and-see modeNordea
The outlook has not changed and hence new easing measures are not justified at this point. If anything, the ECB could be considering new measures to improve monetary transmission in the periphery, eg reducing haircuts. We view the event as market neutral.

The Morning AfterZH
Pimco and Socgen

Goldman: Slight Changes to Fiscal Policy Assumptions and ForecastZH

China’s October macro data previewASA

Demystifying Chinese politics: a look behind the closed doorsNordea (pdf)
China watchers have been waiting for this day for several months. The biggest political event in China in more than a decade is about to come off, as the 18th Communist Party Congress begins in Beijing tomorrow. The fifth generation of national leaders arises.

Nordea Risk Perception IndexNordea (pdf)
Risk sentiment nearly unchanged. Range trading may continue for a prolonged period but upside risks to vol markets is present.

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