Google Analytics

Thursday, November 8

8th Nov - US Close

ECB did nothing, as was expected. In Europe the biggest news was that the decision on Greece is postponed to 26-Nov. Another round of terrible numbers from Europe, with record unemployment in crisis countries. EURUSD keeping in a narrow range and hardly reacting to negative headlines - so looks like plenty of negativity is already priced into the pair. SPX falling again like a rock, and looking at a weekly chart we are getting near levels where I would like to be a buyer. Around 1350? Everyone seems to be talking about that level. That would imply we never get there. If we see 1360, that's it, then. Done. Mine at 1360. I'll sort out my EURUSD view later.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook

Roundups and Commentary
Markets – Between The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT

US and Europe in Focus, but Don't Forget about JapanMarc to Market
The T Report: Just Another Manic Thursday – TF Market Advisors
Tomorrow’s Tape: Import Prices, Consumer Sentiment – WSJ
Europe: Draghi's Dream Dashed As Spain Yields Hit Six-Week Highs – ZH
US: Spot The Odd Market Out Since The Election – ZH

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Economic Calendar – Forexpros 

Spain’s fantastical deficit forecastsalphaville / FT
Spain’s fiscal management seems to increasingly be a case of plugging holes, watching new ones appear, ignoring them, then relenting and also plugging those… all while delaying a clearly inevitable request for assistance from Brussels.

Europe Back In The SpotlightTim Duy’s Fed Watch
Yes, I remain a Euroskeptic.  Maybe it is just in my blood.  Europe still looks ugly, and will continue to be so for the next year at least (I tend to think wave after wave of austerity will push the Eurozone into a multi-year malaise, but let's just take it one year at a time for now). 

Just when you thought the euro crisis was subsiding…Wonkblog / WP

yet another recession, ECB not doing anything, Greece, Spain.

Cyprus expects EU bailout deal next weekeuobserver

Who will stop the Sado-Monetarists as jobless youth hits 58pc in Greece?The Telegraph
Upholding euro membership has by now become an act of cruelty. It is not being done in the interests of Greeks. It is being done for the Project, by enforcers of the Project.

We Aren't In Kansas AnymoreMark Grant / ZH
Three ‘cliffs’: Greece, Spain,  and US fiscal cliff.

ECB meeting: No plans for further easingDanske Bank (pdf)

Nothing new from the ECBNordea 

Wait, the Euro Is Still Irreversible, Isn’t it?MarketBeat / WSJ

Source: WSJ
The Three Key Themes From Q3 EarningsZH
GS: (1) Managements delayed capital investment and hiring and gave conservative guidance given uncertainty about the real economy and near-term policy risk from the ‘Fiscal Cliff’; (2) Companies grappled with slow global growth: stagnation in the US, recession in Europe, and an unclear path in China; and (3) Many firms took strong action to protect high margins against tepid revenue growth, rising input costs, and frugal customers.

P/E Ratios ContractBespoke
The market pullback during a relatively strong earnings season for bottom line numbers has caused P/E ratios to contract recently.  Below we highlight one-year P/E ratio charts (trailing 12-month) for the S&P 500 and its ten sectors.

Budget Disarray: US Set to Restage Greek TragedySpiegel
The US has more in common with heavily indebted southern European countries than it might like to admit. And if the country doesn't reach agreement on deficit reduction measures soon, the similarities could become impossible to ignore. The fiscal cliff looms in the near future, and its not just the US that is under threat.

New CBO report on "Fiscal Cliff"Calculated Risk
As the CBO notes, a policy mistake could lead to economic contraction (a new recession), but I think some reasonable agreement is likely.

China’s growing copper fetishalphaville / FT

Wahlroos moitti politiikkoja eurokriisin pahentamisestaHS
Näin Wahlroos ratkaisisi pankkikriisin kahdessa viikossaIS

Kumpi vie ja kumpi vikisee, EKP vai Espanja?Jan Hurri / TalSa
EKP:llä on keinot ja ehkä kiusaus painostaa Espanjaa anomaan muiden euromaiden tukiohjelmaa niin kuin kaksi vuotta sitten Irlannissa. Espanja ei kuitenkaan ole Irlanti – vaan niin suuri, että sillä on itselläänkin kiristyskeinoja käytössään. Kujanjuoksu on alkanut, mutta kumpi vie ja kumpi vikisee?

Kiina: Skandaalit, korruptio ja valtataistelu varjostavat kommunistipuolueen puoluekokoustaSK

Palveluyhteiskunta tarkoittaa pysyvää köyhtymistä – tuotannollinen teollisuus on vaurastumisen avaintyhmyri

Pekka Ervasti: Paska reissuYLE
Politrukkien palkkiomatkoilla on pitkät ja kunniakkaat perinteet kepussa - aivan kuten ikävistä sotkuista annetuilla selityksilläkin. Silti jokin Las Palmasin -matkassa haisee, kirjoittaa Pekka Ervasti blogissaan.

Taistelu eläkemiljardeistaIL
Kiista siitä, paljonko eläkeyhtiöiden pitäisi palauttaa liikaa perimiään maksuja, käy kuumana.

Laittomuutta eläkejärjestelmässä – mitä tekevät valvojat?Olli Pusa / US Puheenvuoro

RAY: Tämä uhkapelitutkimus on täynnä virheitäTalSa
Raha-automaattiyhdistys on suuttunut Turun kauppakorkeakoulun uudesta pelimonopoli-tutkimuksesta. RAY:n toimitusjohtajan mielestä tutkimus suorastaan pursuaa asiavirheitä.

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook