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Sunday, November 4

4th Nov - Views

Quick views: Event risks ahead, European situation deteriorating again, so I'm very careful now. Every time the euro crisis is 'on', we can expect surprise statements from several people, often contradicting each other. Quick swings, technical trading, keeping size light as volatility will be higher than in the past weeks.

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EURUSD at the bottom of the recent 1.28-1.31 range. Last week I was expecting a rally towards the top of the range, but it fizzled around 1.30-level. It does not look very strong at the moment, and the newsflow is becoming again more unpredictable (Greece, US elections, ECB's latest trouble with Spain, ECB and Eurogroup meetings ahead etc.). If this breaks to the downside, the target from the range would be 1.28-(1.31-1.28) = 1.2500, and this would make sense on longer timeframes as well. I did do a small long, with tight stops, expecting some return to higher levels (1.2880?) next.  Otherwise, I'm staying on the side and will update my views during the week.
SPX has broken the rising trend channel, and also the horizontal range. After some furious price action on Thursday and Friday, the action could be interpreted as a return to the previous support line (now a resistance). This would suggest further downside, but just as with EURUSD, the news calendar is scary, and we're not at levels where I have strong interests.