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Friday, November 16

16th Nov - Weekender: Weekly Support

The ending week in review, and the next one previewed. MoreLiver is also here now.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Weekly Scoreboard – Between The Hedges
Weekly Eurozone Watch – Global Macro Monitor
U.S. Equity Sector ETF Performance – Global Macro Monitor
Week in Review – Global Macro Monitor 
US market portrait week 47 – Portfolio Probe

Fri RecapGlobal Macro Trading
Thu RecapGlobal Macro Trading
Wed RecapGlobal Macro Trading
Tue RecapGlobal Macro Trading

Summary for Week ending 16-NovCalculated Risk 
Hurricane Sandy impacted the economic data released last week, especially retail sales, industrial production and initial weekly unemployment claims…Most of the discussion last week was related to the "fiscal slope", or more accurately, how much austerity the US should enact in 2013.

The Weekenderbeyondbrics / FT 

Succinct summation of week’s eventsThe Big Picture 

Weekly Bull/Bear RecapRational Capitalist Speculator 

Weekly ReviewA View From My Screens
Last week: The week ending 9th Nov saw elections clearing the way for a second Obama mandate and brought the Fiscal Cliff question back into the light. While fundamental negative economic figures were mostly ignored at the beginning on the week, once Wednesday showed final results, markets started sinking. Next week: PMI week. There really isn’t much in terms of European data until next week’s Thursday, which will be PMI day. Wednesday crowded US data dump ahead of Thu 22 Thanksgiving holiday.

(podcast) MarketBeat Week: Fiscal Cliff Roils InvestorsMarketBeat / WSJ
In this week's MarketBeat podcast, the crew discusses the ongoings in the nation's capital surrounding the fiscal cliff and debates what needs to happen to get stocks back on track.

Week in Review: It May Be Twilight for TwinkiesDealBook / NYT
Hostess Brands moved to wind down operations * A report faulted MF Global regulators * European bank debt is, surprisingly, selling * A trial opened in a $68 million insider trading case * Andrew Ross Sorkin prescribed a dose of realism for the chief of J.C. Penney

Politics this weekThe Economist

Business this weekThe Economist

Schedule for Week of 18-NovCalculated Risk 
This is a short week (Happy Thanksgiving!), but there are several key releases early in the week. On Monday, the NAR will release existing home sales for October, and the NAHB will release their homebuilder confidence survey. On Tuesday, Housing Starts for October will be released. Housing has been the bright spot for the U.S. economy recently. Also on Tuesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak on "The Economic Recovery and Economic Policy".

Next Week’s Tape: Housing Reports, Then TurkeyMarketBeat / WSJ
Market participants will get an update on conditions in the U.S. housing market before going off on Thanksgiving holiday.

S&P 500 Earnings Week AheadReuters 

Wall Street Week Ahead: Going off "cliff" with a bungee cordReuters
The 1987 crash. The Y2K bug. The debt ceiling debacle of 2011. All these events, in the end, turned out to be buying opportunities for stocks. So will the "fiscal cliff," some investors say 

(video) Europe Week Ahead: – Reuters

(video) Asia Week Ahead: Obama's Myanmar visit - photo-op or pivot?Reuters

(video) US Week Ahead: Black Fri, Best Buy and Bernanke, oh my!Reuters 

Global Week Ahead – Focus on policymakersNordea (pdf)
Focus is likely to be on the US fiscal cliff debate, the Fed, and Greece. PMIs from the Euro-area and China are the most important data. We expect no surprises on the Euro-area data front, while we could see a positive surprise in China.

Weekly Preview: Arranging the deckchairsBNY Mellon
The Greek government has just bought itself a couple more weeks’ time, what happens thereafter is not quite clear.

Weekly Focus: Political events take centre stageDanske Bank (pdf)
Market movers ahead: Negotiations on the US fiscal cliff continue * Euro Flash PMI and German Ifo expected to show small improvement * We look for a further rise in Chinese HSBC Flash PMI * The Bank of Japan is not expected to add stimulus at next week’s meeting * Q3 GDP growth in Norway is likely to have seen a deceleration to 0.5% q/q.

G10 Weekly: Strategic Scandi OutlookNordea (pdf)
Swedish macro landscape and policy outlook, Norwegian relative outperformance

Market Analysis:Summary Of Recent EventsThe Short Side of the Long 
We are starting to see some signs of the equity market becoming oversold from a short term perspective. 

Weighing the Week Ahead A Dash of Insight
Can You Find Opportunity this Thanksgiving?

FX Positioning and Technical Outlook Marc to Market 

While we retain a favorable outlook for the dollar, we are concerned that in the near-term, the bulls have over-reached. 

FX Forecast Update – NovemberDanske Bank (pdf)
Weaker dollar, yen and sterling in 2013, but mind the cliff

Weekly Fixed Income Summary and Strategies TF Market Advisors 

Weekly Credit UpdateDanske Bank (pdf)
Direction of credit markets will depend on US fiscal cliff negotiations * Decent - but not high - activity in the primary markets * Liquidity management exercise could pick up

Yield Forecast UpdateDanske Bank (pdf)
Event risks continue to dominate sentiment

Stress Indicators: Is the holiday over?Saxo Bank

Emerging Markets Briefer - November 2012Danske Bank (pdf)
Emerging markets FX is under considerable pressure as the risk-off environment due to fiscal cliff concerns and the re-emergence of the eurozone debt crisis dominates global markets at this moment. However, we believe this is only temporary and, going into the 2013, we expect the appetite for risk assets to return.

EMEA Weekly: Week 47Danske Bank (pdf)
Sell-off in rand prevents South African central bank  from easing

Emerging: Week Aheadbeyondbrics / FT

Agenda: Budget talks take centre stage this weekeuobserver
Money will be the talk of the week as EU leaders make their way to Brussels to try and secure a deal on the bloc's longterm budget.

Economic Calendar – Forexpros
Economic Calendar –
Monthly Economic Calendar –
Economic Calendar – BB
EU calendar –


TV: Bloomberg, CNBC, BBC,
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank

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