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Tuesday, November 20

20th Nov - US Close

Source: FT alphaville
Bernanke talked - nothing interesting, except the 'surprise' that FED cannot do fiscal policy, so the cliff must be solved. Some sort of peaceful solution in Middle-East looks probable.
Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups and Commentary
Markets – Between The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT

Tomorrow’s Tape – WSJ
Europe: EURUSD Roundtrips To Unch As Bonds/Stocks Extend Gains – ZH
US Summary – ZH

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Economic Calendar – Forexpros

Misconstruing Germany Will Prove to Be Death of the EuroEconoMonitor
Megan Greene: If Germany doesn’t change its position, the best we can realistically hope for is that it will continue to pay lip service to eventually establishing an effective banking union, and that the European Central Bank will pretend to believe this fiction in order to continue buying euro-area sovereign bonds. That could keep the wheels on the euro-area project for some time. But it cannot solve the crisis.

Finland: Unemployment down – a statistical biasNordea (pdf)
or read the summary

French Politicians Play the Blame GameThe Euro Crisis / WSJ
French Debt Defies Gravity After Moody’s DowngradeThe Euro Crisis / WSJ
France: Next stop Waterloo?Nordea

An actual consequence of France’s downgrade?alphaville / FT
But one place the downgrade might have a real and lasting impact is within the Swiss National Bank. They have a predilection for core eurozone bonds and the downgrade might just prompt them to ditch what holdings they have and/or stop loading up on French debt.

361 Capital Weekly Research BriefingThe Reformed Broker

Economists React: The Fiscal Cliff ‘Can’t Be Fully Avoided’WSJ

On Political Brinksmanship And Stock Market 'Vigilantes'ZH
BofAML: Policymakers have recently made a habit of creating deadlines, thresholds and cliffs to force themselves to act. The result has often been severe market volatility around key decision dates. Markets may be in for yet another bumpy ride as US fiscal cliff and European sovereign debt negotiations continue. However, one lesson from the recent past is that market reaction has been an important mechanism to reaching compromise and forcing action. Unfortunately, history also shows that the equity markets have to sell off sharply before policy makers listen to the “stock market vigilantes.”

Strength in numbers? Pros and cons of Fed policy thresholdsMacroScope / Reuters

Fed’s Lacker Is Skeptical of More Explicit Policy ThresholdsWSJ
More explicitly stating what would prompt a change in monetary policy could risk a breakdown in the Fed's inflation fighting credibility, a veteran policy maker said Tuesday.

The Economic Recovery and Economic PolicyFED
Bernanke at the New York Economic Club 20-Nov

Housing Starts increased to 894 thousand SAAR in October – Calculated Risk
Vital Signs Chart: Home Builders Feeling Better – WSJ
Analysis: Housing Recovery Rolling Along – WSJ
Starts and Completions: Multi-family and Single Family – Calculated Risk
The Housing Recovery Rolls On – The Capital Spectator
Quarterly Housing Starts by Intent compared to New Home Sales – Calculated Risk

Women like men with low yield
Monetary policy in Japan: Battle of the BOJFree exchange / The Economist
Stockmarket analysts have generally welcomed Mr Abe’s pledge to inflate the economy with aggressive pump-priming measures, saying it has already cheapened the yen and boosted share prices. They hope he will do more to stir business activity if his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) wins the December 16th election. But they should consider carefully what they wish for.

A New Agenda for China’s New Leaders?Project Syndicate
Michael Boskin: Managers, workers, consumers, investors, and governments in every corner of the world, many reeling from their own economic problems, have a lot riding on China’s new leadership navigating reform sensibly, now and in years to come. With the transition almost complete, the world will soon know more about what to expect.

Morning Briefing (Asia): Lackluster Trading Ahead of US HolidayBNY Mellon
Does the evidence really suggest that the CAD’s best days are behind it?

Misunderstanding IMF COFER AdjustmentsMarc to Market
CAD and AUD to become reserve currencies?

Hajotetaan eduskuntaKalle Isokallio / IL blogit

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