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Friday, November 2

2nd Nov - Special: Payrolls

October Employment Report: 171,000 Jobs, 7.9% Unemployment RateCalculated Risk

171,000 Jobs Added In October, Unemployment Rate 7.9%ZH

Job Changes By Sector In Past YearZH

The U.S. Economy Adds 171,000 Jobs in October, but Challenges RemainTIME

Payrolls in U.S. Climbed More Than Forecast in OctoberBB

Payrolls rise sharply, giving Obama some reliefReuters
Employers stepped up hiring in October and the jobless rate ticked higher as more workers restarted job hunts, a hopeful sign for a lackluster economy that has dragged on President Barack Obama's reelection chances.

Payrolls surprise to the upsideThe Big Picture 

October payrolls 171,000, unemployment rate 7.9% alphaville / FT 

And The Not So Pretty: Record Low Rise In Average Hourly WagesZH


U.S. Stock Futures Rise as Payroll Growth Tops EstimatesBB

Mitt Romney Slams The Jobs Report Through The Uptick In Unemployment RateBI 

Solid October Jobs ReportThe Reformed Broker

Overall, this is a good, not great, report. I think the net effect is it gives Obama another few days worth of talking points as we head into D-Day, but it probably doesn't mean much for the actual economy. It will not improve business confidence or snowball into any kind of benevolent momentum beyond tomorrow's newspapers.

Good News! The Unemployment Rate RoseWSJ

Analysis: Broad Job Gains Across IndustriesWSJ
Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services, talks with Jim Chesko about today’s Labor Department report 

US recovery weak but the job situation improvingCredit Writedowns

These headline numbers are pretty neutral and don’t give a boost to either US presidential candidate. They show a slow and somewhat lacklustre economic improvement similar to what we witnessed after the last downturn in 2001. Digging deeper, the data was more favorable than the headline suggests.

The economy is doing better than we thoughtWonkblog / WP
The last three months do suggest that the U.S. labor market is on an upward trajectory. Unless Congress fails to avert the fiscal cliff and throws the economy back into recession in January.

The healing continuesFree exchange / The Economist
…encouraging but after so many disappointments in recent years, not reason enough to sound the all clear…This is the last report before the election and it's a mild positive for Barack Obama…

Four Takeaways From Jobs ReportWSJ
good news in revisions and surveys converge 

A Solid Report Tim Duy’s Fed Watch

A solid report, and another step in the right direction.  Not entirely clear that it is a precursor to much better things to come; feels more like a continuation of the slow and steady pace of the past two years. 

Economists React: Sustained Growth, but ‘Subpar’ Trend WSJ
Here’s what five experts are saying

Job Market Has Much Farther to Go Before Fed Pulls BackWSJ
As good as recent jobs data have been, the numbers aren't good enough to lower the unemployment rate as quickly as anyone would like to see.

Tallying President Obama’s Jobs RecordWSJ
President Barack Obama has spent nearly all of his tenure with a net loss in jobs during his time in office. Now that has changed.

About the October jobs report: new jobs, bought at great costFabius Maximus
Most people focus on the month-to-month changes in the jobs report, which consists mostly of noise (recently unpleasant noise).  The year-to-date and 12-month changes are more reliable, but miss the current trends.  Here we look at the change during the past two months. We remain in a slow recovery, somewhat faster than in 2010.

Employment: An encouraging report (also more graphs)Calculated Risk

Solid Seasonal Retail Hiring, Graphs for Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion IndexesCalculated Risk

US: private employment picks upDanske Bank (pdf)

The Big Four Economic Indicators: Nonfarm Employment Updatedshort

Why the Unemployment Report Should Be Taken With A Grain of SaltEconoMonitor

Stronger Labor Market as Workers Return and Part-Time Work FallsEconoMonitor

The jobs report, in six chartsWonkblog / WP

Chart of the day, employment editionFelix Salmon / Reuters

Two recoveriesFree exchange / The Economist
I do think that job growth has been harder to come by given weaknesses in sectors that normally add lots of workers in recovery. I also think that the Fed's inflation hawkishness has been a speed limit.

Nonfarm Payrolls +171,000, Unemployment Rate 7.9%; Good All Around NumbersMish’s
Given the complete distortions of reality with respect to not counting people who allegedly dropped out of the work force, it is easy to misrepresent the headline numbers.

Better Than Expected Jobs Number Sends Market To Day's... Lows?ZH 

Record Low Rise In Average Hourly WagesZH 

Number of the Week: Stagnant Wage GrowthWSJ

1 cent: The drop in hourly earnings in October from a month earlier. U.S. job growth has accelerated, but the bad news is that people who already have jobs aren’t getting raises or more time on the clock.