2nd Nov - Special: Payrolls

DATA & NEWS
October Employment Report: 171,000 Jobs, 7.9% Unemployment Rate – Calculated Risk

171,000 Jobs Added In October, Unemployment Rate 7.9% – ZH

Job Changes By Sector In Past Year – ZH

The U.S. Economy Adds 171,000 Jobs in October, but Challenges Remain – TIME

Payrolls in U.S. Climbed More Than Forecast in October – BB

Payrolls rise sharply, giving Obama some relief – Reuters

Employers stepped up hiring in October and the jobless rate ticked higher as more workers restarted job hunts, a hopeful sign for a lackluster economy that has dragged on President Barack Obama's reelection chances.

Payrolls surprise to the upside – The Big Picture 


October payrolls 171,000, unemployment rate 7.9% – alphaville / FT 

And The Not So Pretty: Record Low Rise In Average Hourly Wages – ZH

 

LATER REACTIONS

U.S. Stock Futures Rise as Payroll Growth Tops Estimates – BB

Mitt Romney Slams The Jobs Report Through The Uptick In Unemployment Rate – BI 

Solid October Jobs Report – The Reformed Broker

Overall, this is a good, not great, report. I think the net effect is it gives Obama another few days worth of talking points as we head into D-Day, but it probably doesn't mean much for the actual economy. It will not improve business confidence or snowball into any kind of benevolent momentum beyond tomorrow's newspapers.

Good News! The Unemployment Rate Rose – WSJ

Analysis: Broad Job Gains Across Industries – WSJ

Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services, talks with Jim Chesko about today’s Labor Department report 

US recovery weak but the job situation improving – Credit Writedowns

These headline numbers are pretty neutral and don’t give a boost to either US presidential candidate. They show a slow and somewhat lacklustre economic improvement similar to what we witnessed after the last downturn in 2001. Digging deeper, the data was more favorable than the headline suggests.

The economy is doing better than we thought – Wonkblog / WP

The last three months do suggest that the U.S. labor market is on an upward trajectory. Unless Congress fails to avert the fiscal cliff and throws the economy back into recession in January.

The healing continues – Free exchange / The Economist

…encouraging but after so many disappointments in recent years, not reason enough to sound the all clear…This is the last report before the election and it's a mild positive for Barack Obama…

Four Takeaways From Jobs Report – WSJ

good news in revisions and surveys converge 

A Solid Report – Tim Duy’s Fed Watch

A solid report, and another step in the right direction.  Not entirely clear that it is a precursor to much better things to come; feels more like a continuation of the slow and steady pace of the past two years. 

Economists React: Sustained Growth, but ‘Subpar’ Trend – WSJ
Here’s what five experts are saying

Job Market Has Much Farther to Go Before Fed Pulls Back – WSJ
As good as recent jobs data have been, the numbers aren't good enough to lower the unemployment rate as quickly as anyone would like to see.

Tallying President Obama’s Jobs Record – WSJ
President Barack Obama has spent nearly all of his tenure with a net loss in jobs during his time in office. Now that has changed.

About the October jobs report: new jobs, bought at great cost – Fabius Maximus

Most people focus on the month-to-month changes in the jobs report, which consists mostly of noise (recently unpleasant noise).  The year-to-date and 12-month changes are more reliable, but miss the current trends.  Here we look at the change during the past two months. We remain in a slow recovery, somewhat faster than in 2010.

Employment: An encouraging report (also more graphs) – Calculated Risk

Solid Seasonal Retail Hiring, Graphs for Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes – Calculated Risk

US: private employment picks up – Danske Bank (pdf)

The Big Four Economic Indicators: Nonfarm Employment Update – dshort

Why the Unemployment Report Should Be Taken With A Grain of Salt – EconoMonitor

Stronger Labor Market as Workers Return and Part-Time Work Falls – EconoMonitor

The jobs report, in six charts – Wonkblog / WP

Chart of the day, employment edition – Felix Salmon / Reuters

Two recoveries – Free exchange / The Economist

I do think that job growth has been harder to come by given weaknesses in sectors that normally add lots of workers in recovery. I also think that the Fed's inflation hawkishness has been a speed limit.

Nonfarm Payrolls +171,000, Unemployment Rate 7.9%; Good All Around Numbers – Mish’s

Given the complete distortions of reality with respect to not counting people who allegedly dropped out of the work force, it is easy to misrepresent the headline numbers.

Better Than Expected Jobs Number Sends Market To Day's... Lows? – ZH 

Record Low Rise In Average Hourly Wages – ZH 

Number of the Week: Stagnant Wage Growth – WSJ

1 cent: The drop in hourly earnings in October from a month earlier. U.S. job growth has accelerated, but the bad news is that people who already have jobs aren’t getting raises or more time on the clock.