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Thursday, November 15

15th Nov - EU Open

The SPX has now fallen to my target levels - I'll update my views in the next post. JPY weakness is an interesting development, given the current risk-off sentiment. See last evening's post - plenty of good ones there.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Economic Calendar – Forexpros

3 Numbers to Watch: DE GDP, UK Retail Sales, US Jobless ClaimsSaxo Bank
Germany's GDP is under the microscope today while UK retail sales will take the pulse of Britain's recovery. In the US, a deferred aftershock from Hurricane Sandy is expected to drive up jobless claims.

Asia Today: JPY still under pressure as Japan focuses on electionSaxo Bank
Asian currency markets extended themes that emerged overnight – currencies posting mild gains against the USD while JPY crosses remained supported. China's new leadership announcement was still awaited at press time

Market Preview: GDP across Europe and US jobless claims in focusSaxo Bank
European markets are expected to open in the red Thursday ahead of Eurozone GDP data which is expected to show contraction in the third quarter. Markets will also keep an eye on US initial jobless claims and CPI data slated later today.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
FOMC minutes indicate that the Fed is taking baby steps towards an Evans-style rule. EU says that there will be no additional austerity requirements for Spain in  2012-2013. Focus today on euro area Q3 GDP figures, UK retail sales and US regional PMIs.

AamukatsausNordea (pdf)
Kiinan valta vaihtui – talouspolitiikassa ei pikaisia muutoksia * Vähittäismyynti menettää vauhtia USA:ssa * Brent-öljyn hinta selvään nousuun Israelin hyökättyä Gazan kaistaleelle

AamukatsausTapiola (pdf) 
Osakemarkkina jatkoi rivakkaa peruutteluaan USA:ssa. USA:n keskuspankin kokousmuistio paljastaa, että vuodenvaihteen jälkeen elvytys luultavasti jatkuu operaatio Twistin tilalla. Osakefutuurit miinuksella, indikoiden laskuavausta. Osakkeista vaihtoehto korkosijoituksille: Millä matalariskisillä osakkeilla korvata aneeminen korkotuotto? Case Elisa – osingoista ylituottoja.


Morning Briefing (EU/US): As you wereBNY Mellon
When Mervyn King implies that higher inflation is no barrier to further stimuli, we should believe him


Gridlock in Europe: The Rise and Fall of the IMF’s ReputationEconbrowser
The IMF is rightly concerned that it will lose its newly-won credibility if it approves plans that are unrealistic. Meanwhile, the slow pace of implementation of quota reform perpetuates the image of the IMF as an organization under the control of the U.S. and European nations.

A "pat on the back" from the EC is an invitation for Spain to ask for OMT; Rajoy unlikely to budgeSober Look
This is quite surprising. After all, Spain is widely expected to overshoot its deficit target.

Monetary Policy vs Fiscal Policy & the Fed’s Losing BattlePragCap
what if we’re finally seeing definitive evidence that the Fed is far less powerful in this environment than many presume?  More importantly, will economists and pundits finally begin to give credit where credit is due with regards to the anti-austerity policy in the USA that has helped bolster the economy?  Fiscal policy in a balance sheet recession is far more impactful than monetary policy….It’s time we all realize it.

Credit is finally getting back to realitySober Look
High Yield has traded down materially, as investors have had enough of ridiculous pricing in this market

The Four Charts That Corporate Bond Managers Fear The MostZH
Maturities have been extended, amounts have grown and spreads have collapsed. Citigroup’s Matt King believes things will end badly.

Impending Bad Debt Headache Likely Bigger Than Expected WSJ

No large-scaled policy changes after new Chinese leadership – Nordea
Xi Jinping Replaces Hu Jintao as China Communist Party Chief – BB
The Communist Party’s Reform Punt – WSJ
China's new party chief Xi gets strong mandate for action – Reuters
Xi Jinping's journey from China party elite to party leader – Reuters
Analysts View: Chinese Communist Party unveils new leadership – Reuters
Don't expect dramatic change from China's new leaders – Reuters
China's next premier schooled in free thought – Reuters

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