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Monday, November 5

5th Nov - EU Open: Heavy Calendar

Just wow... Tue, US elections, Thu ECB and BoE. Open questions: Greece, Spain, Eurogroup meeting, ECB’s collateral policies and divergence between economic data of Europe and US. Most pressing issue now is the ECB’s reaction to the news presented below: the collateral provided by Spain has not been marked down appropriately. For your market needs, I suggest taking a look at the Weekly Support below.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Economic Calendar – Forexpros

3 Numbers to Watch: UK PMI Services, EZ Sentix & US Non-Manu ISMSaxo Bank
Mostly gloomy news today. The PMI services index is expected to show signs of a slowing services sector in the UK. The Eurozone Sentix index is likely to fall, while analysts estimate the US ISM non-manufacturing index will also decline.

Asia Today: Oz data clouds the RBA rate cut prospects tomorrowSaxo Bank
The USD remained broadly higher following the strong US jobs report on Friday.Today's data was Australia-focused generally beat market expectations and mildly favoured the AUD. Interest rate markets are pricing in just below 50% chance of a cut tom.

Market Preview - Focus on US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMISaxo Bank
European markets are expected to open in the red Monday amid ongoing uncertainty over the Greek bailout. Meanwhile, investors remain cautious ahead of the US Presidential election tomorrow.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
Key news: Strong non-farm payrolls boost USD but caution due to election in the US and leadership change in China weigh on equities. Mixed signals from Chinese services: NBS PMI rose whereas HSBC fell in October. Focus today on services PMIs out of Sweden, UK, and US and on the US election. Market movers today: G20 meeting in Mexico, SEK Services PMI, GBP: Services PMI, USD: ISM non-manufacturing

AamukatsausNordea (pdf)
Politiikka ja keskuspankit alkavan viikon valokeilassa * Työllisyyskasvu vankistui USA:ssa * Öljyn hinta alimmilleen kolmeen kuukauteen 

AamukatsausTapiola (pdf)

Osakemarkkinat yllättävän voimakkaaseen  laskuun USA:ssa perjantaina, vaikka USA:n työllisyyslukemat selvästi odotuksia vahvemmat. Osakefutuurit nyt miinuksella, indikoiden laskuavausta. Makrorintamalla vallanvaihdoksia: USA:ssa huomenna presidentin vaalit ja torstaina Kiinassa alkaa puoluekokous, jossa päätetään maan uudesta johdosta. 3Q12 -osavuositulosten ”välitilinpäätös”:  82% OMX HEX 3Q12 -tuloksista takana ja edelleen odotusten mukaisesti mennään. Kertaluontoisista kuluista puhdistettu voitto saattaa olla jopa hieman odotuksia parempi. 

Morning Briefing (EU/US): Bide your time BNY Mellon 
Despite its attractions, the NZD could be due a period of retrenchment


Tim Geithner and Europe’s phone numberbruegel
I was looking for some sort of quantitative evidence of the involvement of the Obama administration in European discussion and thought the frequency of these contact would provide an informative metric

Don't cry for me, FrançoisThe Telegraph
French leader François Hollande is uncomfortably close to a collapse in credibility. His poll rating has sunk to 36pc. The speed of decline has been shocking.

Why Self-Sufficiency Matters (Or Why Europe's Growth Outlook Is Not Good!)ZH
Bridgewater’s note.

Angela Merkel: eurozone crisis will last at least another five yearsThe Telegraph
The eurozone will take at least another five years to recover from the crippling debt crisis that has hampered even Europe's most powerful economy, according to German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

UBS: Europe As Japan 2.0ZH
Japan’s banking system problems in the 1990s stemmed from bad loans…The second parallel is fiscal policy.

UBS: Is A 15%-Plus Devaluation Coming For Spain And Greece?ZH
in a single currency area, real exchange rate misalignments can only be eliminated by relative adjustments to unit labour costs, but if you assume unchanged productivity growth, the brunt of the adjustment will have to take place through wages and inflation. 

Euro Area’s Resolve to Secure Single Currency Faces Greek TestBB
European leaders’ resolve to keep Greece in the euro area will be tested this week as Prime Minister Antonis Samaras struggles to secure political support for measures to assure the country’s bailout lifeline.

Complete European Sovereign Event Calendar Until 2013ZH

ECB says checking status of loans made to Spanish banksReuters
ECB is checking whether it may have contravened its own strict rules by lending to Spanish banks on overly generous terms, an ECB spokeswoman said on Sunday.

ECB investigating if loans made to Spanish banks contravened rulesThe Telegraph
ECB officials are investigating claims that they have blundered and advanced money to Spanish banks on generous rather than penal terms.

Spanish Banks May Face €17 Billion Margin Call As ECB Found To Lie About Collateral HaircutsZH
So, the ECB defends its decision for Spain on the back of a lone rating agency DBRS holding an A-Low rating (which itself says is not representative) and also is in direct opposition to the treatment of Ireland (which is collateralized as a 'B' rated credit while also maintaining an 'A-Low' rating with DBRS!).

Is This Why Markets Can't Catch A Bernanke Bid?ZH
Goldman Sachs: Qualitative comments in October reflect more pessimism than those from September. In particular, companies across sectors noted weaker than expected earnings and/or lowered guidance amidst the disappointing Q3 earnings season. The European crisis and the upcoming US "fiscal cliff" resurfaced as the two key risks weighing on business outlook and the broad economy.

Going over the fiscal cliffEconbrowser

Q&A on market implications of the US electionNordea
For the economy, it really doesn’t matter whether Obama or Romney wins. What matters is the outcome of the congressional election and whether the two parties will work together in the new Congress.

China's economic destiny in doubt after leadership shockThe Telegraph
The forces of reaction and economic folly threaten to prevail in China. The long political arm of Jiang Zemin has reached out from the shadows to thwart reform, with huge implications for Asia and the world.

FX Comment: fiscal cliff or monetary cliff?Nordea

Venäjän hakkeri kärähti: Georgia kuvasi kasvot webkameralla ja julkaisi kuvanTiVi

Julkisten palveluiden yksityistämisestä – usein monopolista toiseentyhmyri

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