Google Analytics

Thursday, November 15

15th Nov - US Close

Both EURUSD (testing bear channel resistance @ 1.28) and SPX near 'critical' levels. Europe is considered to be in a recession and the 2013 does not look any easier. Sweden is also worsening, but at least they have monetary policy left: EURSEK near resistance levels currently. Friday comes with triple-witching expiration in US, and next week the US will have a long weekend. I believe it will be an interesting day to end the week.


Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook

Roundups and Commentary
Markets – Between The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT

Tomorrow’s Tape: Industrial Production Seen Up Slightly – WSJ
US: Low Range, Medium Volume, High Anxiety – ZH

Reference
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Economic Calendar – Forexpros
 
EUROPE
Has summit deal on EU budget become impossible? – Brussels blog / FT
 
Tide turning in Euro-zone credit ratings? – Nordea

  RECESSION
CEPR: Euro-Zone Economy Suffers Recession Since 3Q 2012 – WSJ
Recession now, stagnation in 2013 for euro zone – Reuters
The Euro area is in recession – Nordea
Europe’s Recession – Dr Ed’s Blog
Eurozone Back in Recession in Q3 – TIME
The eurozone in recession in ‘all senses of the word’ – alphaville / FT
German economy feels chill of eurozone recession – euobserver
French Economy Survives for Now – WSJ

  PIIGS
Steen's Chronicle: Social tension is now the elephant in the room – Saxo Bank
We have been surprised how little impact the strikes on the streets of Greece, Portugal and Spain have had on policymakers. But this is finally changing: Eurogroup considers direct transfers to Greece.

Greece: End of the EU road? – Saxo Bank

IMF Draws Line in Sand on Greek Debt – WSJ

Is Rajoy considering an IMF-only bail-out? – alphaville / FT

Spain Will be Forced to Choose – Carnegie

The Greek debt trap: missing the wrong target – bruegel

  NORDIC
Sweden: The labour market continues to show resilience – Nordea

Finland: Flash GDP – No recession – Nordea

More rate cuts in the pipeline – Nordea (pdf)
We adjust our forecast for the Riksbank’s repo rate. The reasons are surprisingly low inflation and a hike in our unemployment forecast.

EURSEK – 8.70 in 3 months – Nordea (pdf)
Lower repo rate gives weaker SEK: Growth is deteriorating and the Riksbank lower its reporate to 0,75% * Limited effects on the SEK from today´s level * We alter our 3-month EURSEK forecast from 8,50 to 8,70

  ECB
Monthly Bulletin, November 2012 – ECB (pdf)

Statistics Pocket Book, November 2012 – ECB (pdf)

The euro as a trusted means of payment – ECB
Speech by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the joint ECB-MNB conference on “Cost and efficiency of retail payments: Evidence, policy actions and role of central banks”, Budapest, 15 November 2012

The monetary policy of the European Central Bank and its transmission in the euro area – ECB
Speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Università Bocconi, Opening of the academic year 2012-2013, Milan, 15 November 2012
 
UNITED STATES
Fed’s Lacker: Consumers, Businesses Under Cloud of Uncertainty Until Congress Fixes Budget – WSJ

Distinguishing Between a Fed Threshold and Trigger – WSJ

Fed’s Williams: Expect QE3 to Continue Well Into 2013 – WSJ

ASIA
Markets cool on China’s new leaders – beyondbrics / FT

China: (Mis)reading Xi – beyondbrics / FT

OTHER
Daily Quickie – HistorySquared
IMF on Credit Growth and Crises; Corporate Bond Bubble Chart; Xi Jinping’s Backers

October 2012: The Month in Charts – Alpha Now / Thomson Reuters
October proved to be a tale of two market environments, as the benign, upbeat ‘risk on’ mood of early in the month gradually gave way to a growing degree of risk aversion and even fear by the final trading day of the month.:

Global morning call – Thursday – Nordea (pdf)
or read the summary

G10 Weekly: Strategic Scandi Outlook – Nordea (pdf)
Swedish macro landscape and policy outlook, Norwegian relative outperformance

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook