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Saturday, November 24

24th Nov - Weekender: Weekly Support

Here are the links to review the past week and get ahead with the next one (previous Weekly Support here).

Quick last week: Thanksgiving holiday week in US. China’s monthly PMI surprised to the upside, while European PMI’s continued being bad – but Germany’s IFO surprised to the upside. No success in the talks on Greece’s next bailout (masked as ‘extension’ because of political embarrassment) – promised to finish them on Monday... Cyprus bailout agreed – luckily all the Russian tax evaders will now be bailed out with the help of EU’s tax payers. EU budget talks collapsed and will continue after the holidays. The markets were bullish during the week, as I had anticipated. The EURUSD strength is somewhat surprising given the bad news. Perhaps good to repeat my long-term view from 21-Oct.  

Quick next week Greece hopefully solved on Monday (means real decision postponed, extension provided to kick the can past German elections), critical fiscal cliff negotiations in US, no killer econ data events - but plenty of less important numbers every day, with US GDP on Wed probably being the main event. Unless surprises happen, moderately bullish week in stock markets and EURUSD is ahead.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Weekly Scoreboard – Between The Hedges
Weekly Eurozone Watch – Global Macro Monitor
Week in Review – Global Macro Monitor
US market portrait week 48 – Portfolio Probe 
U.S. Equity Sector ETF Performance – Global Macro Monitor

Summary for Week ending 23-NovCalculated Risk 
Data was positive last week, especially the housing data.  Housing starts were at the highest level in four years, but are still very low - and both comments are important.  Housing (residential investment) is now a tail wind for the economy, and housing can increase significantly from here.

The Weekenderbeyondbrics / FT

Succinct summation of week’s eventsThe Big Picture

Weekly Bull/Bear RecapRational Capitalist Speculator

(audio) MarketBeat WeekMarketBeat / WSJ
How retail stocks fare after Black Friday as well as the looming fiscal cliff. 

Weekly RewindA View From My Screens 

Politics this weekThe Economist

Business this weekThe Economist

Schedule for Week of 25-NovCalculated Risk 
Negotiations concerning the "fiscal slope" in the US will be back in the headlines this week.  And, in Europe, the discussion on funding for Greece will resume on Monday.

Next Week’s Tape: Cyber Monday, Retail EarningsMarketBeat / WSJ
Monday marks the biggest online shopping day of the year, dubbed Cyber Monday. And in a relatively light week for corporate earnings, several retailers and food companies are among those due to report their latest quarterly results.

S&P 500 Earnings Week AheadReuters

Wall Street Week AheadReuters
Political wrangling to pinch market's nerves, volatility is the name of this game.

(video) Europe Week Ahead: Greece aid talks, EU budgetReuters

(video) Asia Week Ahead: BOJ policy minutes, India GDPReuters

(video) US Week Ahead: Retailers hope shopping spree continuesReuters

Global Week Ahead: Continued focus on policymakers Nordea (pdf)
Focus is likely to be on the US fiscal cliff debate and Greece. Revised US Q3 GDP is the most important data release. Overall we expect no major data surprises compared to consensus estimates.

Weekly PreviewBNY Mellon

Weekly FocusDanske Bank (pdf) 
Signs of global recovery underpin market sentiment: In the US, fiscal cliff negotiations continue after the Thanksgiving break. The eurogroup and IMF get another shot at reaching an agreement on Greece. The regional election in Catalonia could bring Spain back into the limelight. We expect data for October to show that Japan is in recession. In Sweden, GDP growth appears to have eased only moderately in Q3.

G10 Weekly: Different degrees in hell Nordea (pdf) 
The prime reason to our rather gloomy assessment on the world economy is the fact that there is too much debt in relation to income. * Bank of Japan will meet only a couple of days after the election, and this could possibly be the first occasion for the new leadership to affect monetary policy. 

Weekly Credit UpdateDanske Bank (pdf)

Nordea Risk Perception Index Nordea (pdf)
Markets have during the past two weeks been characterized by more clear risk aversion on weak macro data…Nevertheless, implied vol within both rates, equities, FX, and commodities have been marked further down as low-for-even-longer view has been confirmed. For the first time in five years, Nordea Risk Perception Index has thus dropped below 80

EMEA Weekly, Week 48Danske Bank (pdf) 
The Hungarian central bank disregards inflation and continues to ease…South Africa faces increased inflationary pressure and has adopted a cautious approach towards monetary policy…Lithuania’s new prime minister promised to maintain fiscal discipline.

Emerging: Week Aheadbeyondbrics / FT
This week the body of Yasser Arafat is due to be exhumed, the 18th Conference of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol takes place in Doha, and we have financial reports from Essar Energy and Luckoil. 

EM FX Monocle – Shaky ground Nordea (pdf)
or the summary

EM Bond Snapshot: November 2012Danske Bank (pdf)

Market Analysis: – The Short Side of the Long

Weighing the Week AheadA Dash of Insight
More noise than signal?

FX Technical OutlookMarc to Market
Yen and dollar weakness set to continue 

Weekly Fixed Income Overview and StrategiesTF Market Advisors
Chase for yield is on

Economic Calendar – Forexpros
Economic Calendar –
Monthly Economic Calendar –
Economic Calendar – BB
EU calendar –


Agenda: – euobserver

TV: Bloomberg, CNBC, BBC,
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank

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